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UK politics - Hamsterwheel

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UK politics - Hamsterwheel

Old 15th Oct 2018, 15:16
  #16161 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Hussar 54 View Post
If there's no eventual agreement, and an EU imposed Hard Border, it will be tough for the people on both sides of that border....But more importantly, probably catastrophic for the RoI and a hell of a lot of its people who live both there and, of course, have been able to live ' no-questions asked ' in the UK for the last 100 years or so.
No, that can't happen. It was only Project Fear.
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Old 15th Oct 2018, 15:25
  #16162 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
No, that can't happen. It was only Project Fear.

Perhaps....

As in 850,000 more unemployed ; house prices crashing 50% ; exports will fall by 40% ; the country will fall into a deep recession ; WW3 ; etc, etc....

So maybe you're correct - it absolutely, positively, definitely isn't going to happen.
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Old 15th Oct 2018, 15:43
  #16163 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Dream on!! Leo Varadka isn't enthusiastically towing the EU line because he has some sort of wish to plunge his nation into abject poverty (that's the job of the British government at the moment!!) or because of some blind allegiance to a blue flag with gold stars; he's done it because a) he believe in Ireland's future in the EU, as do the Irish people; and b) because the EU has made it perfectly clear that Ireland isn't going to be hung out to dry in the name of, as Brexiteers would have it, "teaching the UK a lesson".

It never ceases to amaze me how have won a dodgy referendum, fought on a torrent of lies and stretched truths (from both sides) Brexiteers are frightened to death about the idea of having a new vote when the facts are know. Of course it's because they've been rumbled and fear the public will have seen the lies for what they were. Remember remainers have as much to lose if a new vote went against them.

For what it's worth, a new referendum before the deed has been done is now an extremely small possibility, so it's all rather hypothetical.
Ireland ? Let's wait and see. A small island, off another small island, off the European mainland in the Atlantic, with its biggest trading partner waiting ( perhaps ? ) to give it a good kicking for buggering up a much needed agreement....

Another referendum ? There are plenty of people in the UK who would like another General Election because of the lies that both parties ( but particularly the Socialists ) were giving out to win votes last year. Do you reckon there should be another vote because of those lies ? I mean, PM May is only a couple of constituencies away from losing her majority because of the Socialists' lies, or looked at another way the Socialists are only a couple of constituencies away from taking power because of the appeal to voters of their lies.

Another vote doesn't happen in those circumstances, so what's the difference ?

Remember remainers have as much to lose if a new vote went against them. - No they haven't, they'd just moan and whine for yet another vote....
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Old 15th Oct 2018, 16:12
  #16164 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Parapunter View Post
Well, well, well.
Must have been a deep one - It has taken you 7 years to climb out. That was some ban.
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Old 15th Oct 2018, 21:24
  #16165 (permalink)  
 
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Another vote doesn't happen in those circumstances, so what's the difference ?
I seem to recall we have an opportunity to revise our decision every 5 years in general elections. Brexiteers believe that the result in 2016 is set for every - never to be challenged.
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Old 15th Oct 2018, 21:58
  #16166 (permalink)  
Está servira para distraerle.
 
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It's very unsporting to challenge a man when he's neither in nor out though.
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Old 15th Oct 2018, 22:35
  #16167 (permalink)  
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Personally I just wish they would get on with it. There is just no certainty just words, words, words.
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Old 16th Oct 2018, 06:59
  #16168 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
I seem to recall we have an opportunity to revise our decision every 5 years in general elections. Brexiteers believe that the result in 2016 is set for every - never to be challenged.
That's not unreasonable - so maybe the UK should have another vote about rejoing / leaving the EU every five years, the next one in 2021 and not 2019 as so many are screaming for.

Meanwhile, there are there are about 400 million of us who can't even have a first vote.
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Old 16th Oct 2018, 07:34
  #16169 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
I seem to recall we have an opportunity to revise our decision every 5 years in general elections. Brexiteers believe that the result in 2016 is set for every - never to be challenged.
Any party that wants to campaign a GE on a manifesto of rejoining the EU is free to do so. The Lib Dems had a very pro-EU manifesto in 2017, but it didn't get them a lot of votes.
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Old 16th Oct 2018, 07:44
  #16170 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
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Meanwhile, elsewhere in UK politics......

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/n...-mps-0t7vrbf2j

John Bercow told to quit over report into sex pest MPs

The head of the Commons standards committee is calling for John Bercow to resign as Speaker after a report said that “disturbing” allegations of sexual harassment by MPs had been “tolerated and concealed”.

Sir Kevin Barron’s intervention comes after the conclusions of an independent inquiry into harassment of Commons staff were published. The report by Dame Laura Cox, 66, found that it would be “extremely difficult” for the “current senior House administration”, including the Speaker, to bring about the changes required. It added that Mr Bercow was incapable of addressing a culture of “deference, subservience, acquiescence and silence” among Commons staff.

Writing in The Times, Sir Kevin, 71, says: “The change in culture has to come from the top, and unfortunately I no longer believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, is the correct person to provide that leadership, so he should step down.”

Dame Laura, a retired High Court judge, was commissioned this year to report on the harassment of Commons staff after Mr Bercow, 55, who has been Speaker since 2009, was accused of bullying two of his former private secretaries...........

“Delivering fundamental and permanent change will require a focus and a genuine commitment on the part of the leadership of the House,” Dame Laura wrote. “However, the inescapable conclusion from the views expressed during this inquiry is that it will be extremely difficult to build confidence that there will be fundamental change when the levers of change are regarded as part of the change that is needed.”

The report details alleged sexual harassment by MPs, saying that women reported being abused in “vulgar, gender-related terms”. There were reports of “inappropriate touching”, including men “trying to kiss them, grabbing their arms or bottoms or stroking their breasts or bottoms”. Staff reported men putting their arms around women’s shoulders or waists or “pulling them into corners for close personal contact”.

Even when the investigation was ordered, Mr Bercow believed that he had sufficient support to stay on as Speaker, at least through the final months of the Article 50 process through which Britain is leaving the EU. Despite being a former Conservative MP he has always had the near-total support of the Labour benches. The intervention of Sir Kevin, Labour’s fifth longest-serving MP, could change that calculation.

The backbencher, who stood down last night as chairman of the standards committee, having held the position since 2010, writes that the allegations against Mr Bercow make it impossible for him to stay on.

“The Speaker has introduced many welcome procedural changes during his tenure but questions about his own behaviour towards staff still linger,” he said. “There is a feeling among staff that if allegations against the Speaker can be ignored, then the chance of any other complaint progressing is slim.”.......

Maria Miller, the Conservative chairwoman of the women and equalities committee, also called on Mr Bercow to consider his position, telling Buzzfeed: “This is a damning indictment of the leadership of the House of Commons, and that includes the Speaker.”

The fate of Mr Bercow’s speakership could be decided at a meeting next Monday. He made no comment, but a spokeswoman said: “This is a serious report into a serious subject which deserves a serious response. The House of Commons Commission will meet as a matter of urgency in the coming days to consider our response.”

The commission is the ultimate administrative authority for the Commons and is chaired by Mr Bercow. The government’s representative is Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the House of Commons, who said she would “study the findings of Dame Laura Cox’s report closely and consider next steps”. Members of the commission told The Times they would call on Mr Bercow to consider his position at the meeting........

In May Mr Bercow escaped investigation by Kathryn Stone, the independent parliamentary commissioner for standards, over allegations of bullying after three fellow MPs refused to let the Commons ethics watchdog open an inquiry. One of the MPs who blocked the investigation, Kate Green, was elected unopposed last night to succeed Sir Kevin.
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Old 16th Oct 2018, 08:28
  #16171 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Groundbased View Post
Any party that wants to campaign a GE on a manifesto of rejoining the EU is free to do so. The Lib Dems had a very pro-EU manifesto in 2017, but it didn't get them a lot of votes.
They are / were a victim of the ridiculous first past the post electoral system which results in voters being unwilling to put their cross against a party that, according to the polls is unlikely to win the seat. I would more than happily vote LibDem but in my constituency it's a straight fight between Soubry and whoever Labour put up against her. The LDs are a side show, so I'll vote for one of the two - probably the former. If we had a proportional system then I can assure you I'd vote LibDem.

As it is less than 10% of UK constituencies are considered "marginal" so for the overwhelming majority voting is largely a fairly pointless democratic exercise - in some Labour could put up Chi Chi the chimp and they would win, in others the Tories could do likewise. it's no way to run a modern democracy, and it's hardly surprising that there's been a steady historical decline in turn out at general elections. The same, incidentally could be said about how the USA elects it's president.

Compare and contrast the results of Bavaria's state election on Sunday, or indeed the way the French system works. We are locked into an agreement of convenience between Labour and The Conservatives which works well for both of them (for the most part) and ensure a much needed new centrist party will never be successful in UK.
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Old 16th Oct 2018, 08:32
  #16172 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Hussar 54 View Post
That's not unreasonable - so maybe the UK should have another vote about rejoing / leaving the EU every five years, the next one in 2021 and not 2019 as so many are screaming for.

Meanwhile, there are there are about 400 million of us who can't even have a first vote.
If the location appears to be France, then that is totally reasonable. Your vote should be in France, under the French system.

In the same way all residents in UK over 18 (I would have preferred 16) should have been able to vote in the referendum - and for that matter in GEs.
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Old 16th Oct 2018, 08:58
  #16173 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
They are / were a victim of the ridiculous first past the post electoral system which results in voters being unwilling to put their cross against a party that, according to the polls is unlikely to win the seat. I would more than happily vote LibDem but in my constituency it's a straight fight between Soubry and whoever Labour put up against her. The LDs are a side show, so I'll vote for one of the two - probably the former. If we had a proportional system then I can assure you I'd vote LibDem.

As it is less than 10% of UK constituencies are considered "marginal" so for the overwhelming majority voting is largely a fairly pointless democratic exercise - in some Labour could put up Chi Chi the chimp and they would win, in others the Tories could do likewise. it's no way to run a modern democracy, and it's hardly surprising that there's been a steady historical decline in turn out at general elections. The same, incidentally could be said about how the USA elects it's president.

Compare and contrast the results of Bavaria's state election on Sunday, or indeed the way the French system works. We are locked into an agreement of convenience between Labour and The Conservatives which works well for both of them (for the most part) and ensure a much needed new centrist party will never be successful in UK.
The LibDems were also a victim of having a hard pro-EU policy that ensures that many moderates (like me) will not vote for them. I agree with pretty much everything in the LibDem manifesto, except their hard line position on staying in the EU, and I doubt that I'm alone. I suspect that there are a significant number of the electorate that don't agree with either the more extreme right wing politics of some Conservatives or the more extreme left wing politics of the Labour leadership and Momentum. At a guess, roughly half of this group that would prefer to see a government that occupies the middle ground are going to be uncomfortable supporting a party that is determined to scupper the referendum outcome. That, combined with the lacklustre performance of the LibDems in the coalition that had already caused them to lose a lot of seats, must have been enough to cause them to slide further into obscurity. Ignoring numbers of seats, as I'm no fan of the first-past-the-post system, then the LibDems went from around 23% of the vote in 2010 to less than 8% of the vote in the 2015 general election, then lost another 0.5% of the vote after the referendum, in the 2017 general election.
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Old 16th Oct 2018, 09:27
  #16174 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
The LibDems were also a victim of having a hard pro-EU policy that ensures that many moderates (like me) will not vote for them. I agree with pretty much everything in the LibDem manifesto, except their hard line position on staying in the EU, and I doubt that I'm alone. I suspect that there are a significant number of the electorate that don't agree with either the more extreme right wing politics of some Conservatives or the more extreme left wing politics of the Labour leadership and Momentum. At a guess, roughly half of this group that would prefer to see a government that occupies the middle ground are going to be uncomfortable supporting a party that is determined to scupper the referendum outcome. That, combined with the lacklustre performance of the LibDems in the coalition that had already caused them to lose a lot of seats, must have been enough to cause them to slide further into obscurity. Ignoring numbers of seats, as I'm no fan of the first-past-the-post system, then the LibDems went from around 23% of the vote in 2010 to less than 8% of the vote in the 2015 general election, then lost another 0.5% of the vote after the referendum, in the 2017 general election.
I'm sure you're not alone in your opinions; and as usual, i I agree with your measured analysis of the slide in LibDem support; I think actually that given a fair electoral system (which we will not have) many younger voters that gave Labour their support in 2017 under the misguided impression that the arch Brexiteer Corbyn was going to somehow stop the Brexit process may give Labour a similar kicking and move towards the Libdems.

Of course, if the UK had a fairer voting system, then with 8% of the popular vote, the LibDems might have expected to get around 50 seats in Westminster, and the political geography would have been vert different, with the extremist Brexiteers in the Tory party having far less influence, and the DUP possibly an irrelevance within the Brexit discussion.

All, of course ifs, buts and maybes.
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Old 16th Oct 2018, 10:41
  #16175 (permalink)  
 
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I can understand the frustrations of ' First Past The Post ' electoral system - as you say, most constituencies are a no-contest depending on the social background of the electorate in each constituency. We own a couple of properties in Henley ( and yes, we're quite a bit out of pocket with the £ Exchange Rate since 2016 ) and Hell will freeze over before there is ever anything other than a Conservative MP.

But ' Proportional Representation ' also has its faults - too many Coalition Governments have either fallen over the years ( think Italy ) because of too many policy differences between the parties in the Coalition, in which case nothing gets done that needs to be done ( again, think Italy ) or have meant too many compromises between the parties and major policies ( which many voters might have specifically voted for ) in the different parties' manifestos have to be dropped or ignored for the Coalition to survive - think the LibDems and Tuition Fees which I am sure wa 90% of the reason for their wipe-out in 2015.

Even worse for Remain / EU supporters, after the 2015 General Election, UKIP would have had about 80 MPs with Proportional Representation, and the current balls-up with BREXIT wouldn't even have happened. It would have been Article 50 delivered and a curt ' Bye Bye ' which would have been in the best interests on absolutely nobody.

It's that UKIP vote - which was almost 13 % - which should have woken up the blockheads in Brussels who should have listened to Cameron instead of treating him like something of a traitor or something stuck on the bottom of their shoes.
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Old 16th Oct 2018, 11:28
  #16176 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Of course, if the UK had a fairer voting system.......
What constitutes a “fair” electoral system is somewhat subjective. There is no such thing as an ideal electoral system, they all have their advantages and disadvantages, and ultimately not every voter will end up with their preferred candidate being elected.

In my experience, the loudest calls for a change in the electoral system come from those who have not prospered under the current one……
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Old 16th Oct 2018, 13:26
  #16177 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Hussar 54 View Post
But the vote was taken and the result must stand until someone has a genuine reason for a re-think and not just moans lfrom the worst kind of losers.
Here's one pal: We know materially more now than we did on the 27th of June 2016. We now know what a catastrophic outcome no deal represents for the UK. We now know what two years of Tory infighting looks like, placing party above country at all costs. Into the bargain, that infighting tells us explicitly no one knew what they were voting for. We know now of a daily & growing chorus of warnings from all sections of the business (f*ck 'em) community It's plainly insufficient to argue leave/remain was on the ballot & therefore it's a done deal. It's nothing like a done deal & cannot ever be one because & this is the real kicker - There is by definition no way of being outside of the institutions that abolish borders without creating borders. If anyone had thought about Theresa's red lines & where they would lead, then it is to that inescapable conclusion.

All of those taken in the round add up to a betrayal of the will of the people, which is a crap argument anyway before you start getting into material consequences & modified outlooks. No, what the Conservative & Unionist party owes us is an apology for hawking an undefined & undeliverable fantasy that existed entirely in the heads of a small cabal of right wing Tory ideological zealots. Yet, a part of me hopes they get their no deal & have to swim in the sewage they created, trade with the protectionist states they venerated so much, face the Irish & take the legacy they so richly deserve.

See you in ten years.
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Old 16th Oct 2018, 14:11
  #16178 (permalink)  
 
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If we're really pals, I hope it will be less than ten years....

It's nothing like a done deal & cannot ever be one because & this is the real kicker - There is by definition no way of being outside of the institutions that abolish borders without creating borders

I think you've made a genuinely good point there - and for many of us who would like to see the EU return to a simple Trading Area without all the political bolleaux is precisely because the EU is determined to ignore and finally abolish borders between its member states until there is a single, homogenous ' Europe '

Nowhere else in the world is this happening - and when this has been tried by dictators, by force or by military invasion and occupation, then the condemnation is deafening.
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Old 16th Oct 2018, 14:34
  #16179 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Parapunter View Post
We know materially more now than we did on the 27th of June 2016.
Sorry, but nothing is known for sure. We don’t even know what sort of agreement we will have with the EU, or if there will even be an agreement at all. All we have is opinion (some of it less than objective) and speculation.
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Old 16th Oct 2018, 15:02
  #16180 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Parapunter View Post
Here's one pal: We know materially more now than we did on the 27th of June 2016.

Well the only things we know for certain now are that all the tales of woe forecast by the Remain camps Project Fear campaign didnt come to fruition - otherwise as was said previously, its all speculation.
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