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UK politics - Hamsterwheel

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UK politics - Hamsterwheel

Old 14th Jul 2018, 21:01
  #14961 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
Oh Yes They Will - in both cases it's just a matter of time.
Trump will almost certainly run for a second term and is still very popular over there so if he wins you are looking at 5 to 6 years before he departs the white house. As for brexit it was voted for democratically so will happen despite the whining of remainers / lib dems / snowflakes who (like the eu) conveniently forget that sometimes votes will go against them and throw their toys out of the pram when they do.
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Old 14th Jul 2018, 21:14
  #14962 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by paulc View Post
Trump will almost certainly run for a second term and is still very popular over there so if he wins you are looking at 5 to 6 years before he departs the white house. As for brexit it was voted for democratically so will happen despite the whining of remainers / lib dems / snowflakes who (like the eu) conveniently forget that sometimes votes will go against them and throw their toys out of the pram when they do.
Like I said, just a matter of time, in both cases. The #brexiteers took forty years to overturn the last democratic will of the people as expressed in a referendum - let's hope it doesn't take as long next time around.
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Old 15th Jul 2018, 07:59
  #14963 (permalink)  
 
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Always dangerous, but I am going to stick my neck out. I don't think it will happen after Chequers. It's a Brexit that I as a don't know could just about live with. Unfortunately it looks as if the EU, a substantial portion of the Tory Party and The Donald ( Despite his hasty recantation) cannot. I don't think that NoDeal is an option, so that leaves an Article 50 U turn, which I think will be the result. Whether they get there via parliament or Referendum 2.0 I don't know.
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Old 15th Jul 2018, 09:24
  #14964 (permalink)  
 
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Trump told May to sue the EU.
Thatís a novel idea. Would she sue in the ECJ?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44838028
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Old 15th Jul 2018, 09:54
  #14965 (permalink)  
 
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Sallyann: That had me giggling. He also said she should not walk away from the negotiations, thus proving there are 2 Donald Trumps. One who says one thing and the other who immediately repudiates that!
Effluent Man: I see what you are saying but I think "no deal" is not only possible but quite likely. If you were the EU negotiator and you knew the UK was likely to crumble rather than walk away without a deal, you would be laughing. You would only need to keep giving UK proposals a big "Non" or whatever, comfortable in the knowledge that you could, at the 11th hour say "Tell you what. If you accept this or that, you can have a deal. And "this or that" could be all those things the UK would find unpalatable.
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Old 15th Jul 2018, 10:24
  #14966 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by KelvinD View Post
Effluent Man: I see what you are saying but I think "no deal" is not only possible but quite likely. If you were the EU negotiator and you knew the UK was likely to crumble rather than walk away without a deal, you would be laughing. You would only need to keep giving UK proposals a big "Non" or whatever, comfortable in the knowledge that you could, at the 11th hour say "Tell you what. If you accept this or that, you can have a deal. And "this or that" could be all those things the UK would find unpalatable.
Meanwhile the #brexiteers cling to their la-la-land unicorn cakeism belief that the EU will at the 11th hour say "OK, it's a fair cop, we do need you more than you need us, you can have whatever you like". Ain't gonna happen. (And even if it did we'd still be no nearer an agreed position as to what "whatever you like" actually means.)
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Old 15th Jul 2018, 10:33
  #14967 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by KelvinD View Post
If you were the EU negotiator and you knew the UK was likely to crumble rather than walk away without a deal, you would be laughing. You would only need to keep giving UK proposals a big "Non" or whatever, comfortable in the knowledge that you could, at the 11th hour say "Tell you what. If you accept this or that, you can have a deal. And "this or that" could be all those things the UK would find unpalatable.
I think you're spot on. And quite frankly, I think the EU team have run rings around us. They know we want a deal, they know we would probably accept any deal rather than no deal, they know we're divided and they know we have no Plan B. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Barnier accepts May's new proposal 'in principle' but then requires further concessions, stringing out the negotiations. For me, that's the problem with Theresa May - she follows the path of least resistance when she should be showing leadership.
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Old 15th Jul 2018, 18:50
  #14968 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
Like I said, just a matter of time, in both cases. The #brexiteers took forty years to overturn the last democratic will of the people as expressed in a referendum - let's hope it doesn't take as long next time around.
Do you really think the eu will last another 40 years. I sure as hell hope it implodes and reverts back to a trading block only without the ever increasing march towards federalisation
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Old 15th Jul 2018, 19:13
  #14969 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by paulc View Post
Do you really think the eu will last another 40 years.
Well, it's only been "EU" for five minutes, it's gone through several designations since we joined. I would hardly be astonished if it changed shape and name a few more times in the next 40 years. So no, I don't think we will have something that is both called "EU" and has the current set of rules in 40 years time - I expect the rules to change, and I wouldn't be surprised, and wouldn't care, if the branding did too.
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Old 16th Jul 2018, 06:36
  #14970 (permalink)  
 
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Old 16th Jul 2018, 06:57
  #14971 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by sitigeltfel View Post
Far from being ignored, it's occupied 100% of our political bandwidth since the vote - there simply wouldn't have been any way to ignore it less.
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Old 16th Jul 2018, 07:18
  #14972 (permalink)  
 
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I would say the referendum was analogous with seeing a house for sale and being asked if you wanted to buy it, You say yes and when you see your solicitor he says. "Let's go through the contract". Now at this stage you find out that a neighbour has a right to drive across the land, or to keep pigs on it. So you ask him to go back and negotiate. Neighbour tells you to do one and that he has always driven across it and kept pigs.

So you now have two options. You buy it as is or you say no. Voters at the referendum were not informed about access or pigs. So maybe they should be asked now. The Chequers deal keeps the neighbour driving over your geraniums but ditches the pigs.
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Old 16th Jul 2018, 07:40
  #14973 (permalink)  
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There seems to be some confusion here about the UK options.

Once Article 50 was declared the UK was out of the EU, the declaration is not withdrawable. The two year delay in implementation is purely designed to allow the withdrawal details to be agreed.

If, at this stage, the UK decides it wishes to rejoin the EU it must reapply, be accepted by all members as a candidate - and accept all the conditions laid down, which now include being in Schengen and the Euro.

If the house buying analogy has any truth it is in the Scottish context where the offer to buy is legally binding and cannot be withdrawn.

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Old 16th Jul 2018, 07:46
  #14974 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
the declaration is not withdrawable
I know that some people assert this, as if assertion made things real, but it's not true. So there's no need for me to read the rest of your post.
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Old 16th Jul 2018, 07:49
  #14975 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
There seems to be some confusion here about the UK options.

Once Article 50 was declared the UK was out of the EU, the declaration is not withdrawable. The two year delay in implementation is purely designed to allow the withdrawal details to be agreed.

If, at this stage, the UK decides it wishes to rejoin the EU it must reapply, be accepted by all members as a candidate - and accept all the conditions laid down, which now include being in Schengen and the Euro.

If the house buying analogy has any truth it is in the Scottish context where the offer to buy is legally binding and cannot be withdrawn.

First off, there is no one settled legal opinion that supports your statement.

Second, if the EU really wanted the UK not to leave, they would find a way, but I think they'd be much happier with Mrs. May's plan, as takes away a problem (the UK as a member) whilst retaining potentially free movements of products between the UK and EU.

I really don't see how Justine Greening's idea of a 3 question referendum resolves anything, it's perfectly possible the result could be carved up 33 / 32 / 35. How anyone could extricate the country from a three way split I simply don't know.
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Old 16th Jul 2018, 08:00
  #14976 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
First off, there is no one settled legal opinion that supports your statement.
It's true that you can find some lawyers who will say that it can't be withdrawn unilaterally, as well as those who say it can, but I don't think I've ever heard anyone credibly claim that it can't be withdrawn with agreement from the EU27?
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Old 16th Jul 2018, 08:02
  #14977 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
I really don't see how Justine Greening's idea of a 3 question referendum resolves anything, it's perfectly possible the result could be carved up 33 / 32 / 35. How anyone could extricate the country from a three way split I simply don't know.
Tactical voting nightmare (whether or not you assume that voters get to order the three choices).
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Old 16th Jul 2018, 08:04
  #14978 (permalink)  
 
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I don't think it matters one jot whether the UK can withdraw it's letter of intent to withdraw under Article 50 or not.

There is no way on this planet that the EU would accept the UK back in as a member under the old terms we had, not a hope. The UK has been a PITA for the EU for decades, and you can been damned sure that if we did decide to just ignore the referendum decision and ask to withdraw our letter on intent under Article 50 the EU would make us pay a very, very high price for it. It would, in my view, be the very worst thing that could happen.
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Old 16th Jul 2018, 08:58
  #14979 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
I don't think it matters one jot whether the UK can withdraw it's letter of intent to withdraw under Article 50 or not.

There is no way on this planet that the EU would accept the UK back in as a member under the old terms we had, not a hope. The UK has been a PITA for the EU for decades, and you can been damned sure that if we did decide to just ignore the referendum decision and ask to withdraw our letter on intent under Article 50 the EU would make us pay a very, very high price for it. It would, in my view, be the very worst thing that could happen.
Regardless of any second thoughts or legal arguments, we have taken that step off the cliff and cannot return.

Brexit has always been irreversible. Everyone has ​​​​​​to accept that, however they voted and whatever they then thought they were voting for.

It's also been clear from the start that there will be no satisfactory agreement with the EU. Those who have boasted that the EU will give way at the last minute and allow us into their orchard to pick our cherries were misguided. The only undecided matter is what will happen in Ireland.
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Old 16th Jul 2018, 10:02
  #14980 (permalink)  
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The view of the EU Commission, as stated on their website, is that A50 cannot be withdrawn, it is also the stated view of M. Barnier - and if you think they are liable to shift on that view any more than any other point, you are flying in the face of experience.

As, stated by others, there is the legal opinion that, if universally agreed by the other 27 nations, it might be revokable. But as also stated they have far more to gain in the way of the UK rebate, Schengen, the Euro and other points of difference (Spain, for example, would as a minimum demand dual sovereignty over Gibraltar) to make any such request a starting point for than negotiations rather than a simple yes or no.

It is also the view of the legal opinion sought and received by the EU parliament that any such request would have to be referred to the EUCJ, and a such a referral could be sought by any UK or other EU citizen. Such a case would, in any case, take us past next March.

There is also the point that the wording of any second referendum would have to be legally possible. Since, in the case heard on Brexit by the Supreme Court, the legal opinion by council on both other sides was that A50 was irrevocable - and on that point the court said it would itself not give an opinion - any wording which suggested staying in the EU would be legally invalid until such time as another case had reached the Supreme Court where they did express a contrary view - again impossible before the deadline in March.

The hope by some retainers that the, somehow, the how Brexit decision can be made to go away and we can just go on as before is a fantasy - and one rejected by even fervent remainers such as Nick Clegg. The only point of contention being how "least bad" a deal they think can get, the closest example probably being EFTA and the EEA - which is rejected by both the Conservative and Labour parties.

Last edited by ORAC; 16th Jul 2018 at 10:18.
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