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UK politics - Hamsterwheel

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UK politics - Hamsterwheel

Old 9th Jun 2017, 11:56
  #9981 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
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Would political infighting resulting in no deals being arranged with the EU amount to a hard Brexit by default? The timetable for Brexit is set and the negotiating period limited, so this might not be the result that the Europhiles wanted.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 11:58
  #9982 (permalink)  
 
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UKIP is a relic, just like the Whigs.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 12:13
  #9983 (permalink)  
 
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 12:22
  #9984 (permalink)  
 
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Clegg and the Lib Dums went into the 2010 election promising an end to tuition fees but sold their souls on that one to get into Gov't.

Who is to say what deal the DUP will accept to get their arses parked round the big table.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 12:31
  #9985 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Seldomfitforpurpose View Post
Clegg and the Lib Dums went into the 2010 election promising an end to tuition fees but sold their souls on that one to get into Gov't.

Who is to say what deal the DUP will accept to get their arses parked round the big table.
I suspect that the bigger issue is what May will offer them to ensure their arses are parked!
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 13:07
  #9986 (permalink)  
 
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Why doesn't TM just resign? She's not just weakened, she's lost real credibility.

She has to have common sense...
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 13:16
  #9987 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by kungfu panda View Post
Why doesn't TM just resign? She's not just weakened, she's lost real credibility.

She has to have common sense...
Think about it for a minute.

The country is sick and tired of elections, if she resigns now she effectively hands the plate to Jeremy Corbyn, and he cannot, under any circumstances, form a government; the numbers just don't stack up at all.

The choice would be stark.

1. Leave the country in limbo for a month or more, whilst the Conservative party run around trying to get viable leadership candidates, then go through the two stage internal election process. Meanwhile, the deadline for the start of the Brexit negotiations would pass and we would be put at an even greater disadvantage than we already are.

2. Call yet another general election, which would add almost a 2 month delay and seriously piss off a great deal of the electorate, even more than was typified by "Brenda from Bristol".
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 13:18
  #9988 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by kungfu panda View Post
Why doesn't TM just resign? She's not just weakened, she's lost real credibility.

She has to have common sense...
Because that would really mess up the start of the Brexit negotiations in 10 days time. Once they are underway and bedded in in 2-3 months time, especially if another election looks likely, then that would be another matter.

Not sure who would get in - Osbourne must be kicking himself for not standing as an MP again! David Davis is possibly the least damaged of the Brexit musketeers so could win, otherwise Amber Rudd, unless she decided that the forensic dissection of her previous business career would get a wider airing than the one that took place in Private Eye over the last 12 months. Boris has had an opportunity over the last 9 months as Foreign Secretary to show that he can do gravitas and statesmanship - I don't think he's succeeded.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 13:31
  #9989 (permalink)  
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Oh dear......nothing quite like moral support when you most need it really.....although as the rags, and their readership, in question are usually devoid of any concept of morality and moral issues anyway the headlines come as no surprise...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...lection-gamble

No doubt however, "The Conservative Woman" will be able to offer us a more sanguine and less critical analysis ( there's no point in troubling the subscribers with anything too politically complex after all) as to why the current incumbent of No10 will be searching Google for "Removal companies " in the near future.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 14:00
  #9990 (permalink)  
 
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Whilst she may well end up moving out of No 10 I suspect we all know which clown will not be moving in any time soon. That will be the same clown that hardly any of his own party will publicly endorse and whose party would have him and his gang out of a job PDQ if they could.

2nd place by a country mile is 2nd place by a country mile no matter how anyone try's to spin it.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 14:08
  #9991 (permalink)  
 
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It's you doing the spinning mate! Your pinup has just screwed the pooch mahoosively, and you are still on the Corbyn-bashing. That DOES NOT make TM look any better. The Tories have, in 2 years, f**ked the country over TWICE, and you think they did it 'for the country'. The last cockup very nearly handed the keys to a pacifist, IRA sympathiser, and you are sticking with him being the clown!

CG

Last edited by charliegolf; 9th Jun 2017 at 14:20.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 14:14
  #9992 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
In some respects this is the worst result in Labour history.
But this is no surprise at all. Everyone, from the Daily Mail on up knew Corbyn was unelectable. The shock is how much damage he managed to do to TM's mandate.

So the lesson to the Conservative leadership is, "don't get your strategy from the front page of the Daily Mail."

But who knows what will happen next week. Perhaps TM will decide to go for double or nothing and decide to call a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU?
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 14:19
  #9993 (permalink)  
 
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You have to hand it to Nicloa Sturgeon.

She's calling on Theresa May to resign because she is 10% down on Parliamentary seats.

Nicola Sturgeon is down 40%. Is she going to resign?

Not while she represents the 'Settled Will of Scotland'.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 14:22
  #9994 (permalink)  
 
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"Mr President Sir, it's official. You ARE NOT the stoopidest politician in the world any longer! Congratulations Sir!"
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 14:25
  #9995 (permalink)  
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A question that must be asked is that if Labour could not win against the worst Conservative campaign in a century which deliberately offended their core voter base, and during which Labour offered the voters everything but a free kitchen sink, when can they win?

Further note the delayed Boundary Commission changes take effect in 2018 and the next election will be for just 600 redrawn constituencies which will move the boundaries in such a way as to favour the Conservatives by about 20 seats - and which will also give ample opportunity for Momentum to replace right of centre MPs with those of their own choosing.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 14:35
  #9996 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
A question that must be asked is that if Labour could not win against the worst Conservative campaign in a century which deliberately offended their core voter base, and during which Labour offered the voters everything but a free kitchen sink, when can they win?

Further note the delayed Boundary Commission changes take effect in 2018 and the next election will be for just 600 redrawn constituencies which will move the boundaries in such a way as to favour the Conservatives by about 20 seats - and which will also give ample opportunity for Momentum to replace right of centre MPs with those of their own choosing.
For me the electability, or otherwise, of the British Labour party is of zero consequence.

The big issue now is, how does this change the trajectory of Brexit?
TM wanted a bigger majority to secure her mandate for hard Brexit -- so she couldn't be voted down by the House of Lords.

It's clear now that hard Brexit, is off. Staying within the customs union and the EEA are back on.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 14:39
  #9997 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
A question that must be asked is that if Labour could not win against the worst Conservative campaign in a century which deliberately offended their core voter base, and during which Labour offered the voters everything but a free kitchen sink, when can they win?

Further note the delayed Boundary Commission changes take effect in 2018 and the next election will be for just 600 redrawn constituencies which will move the boundaries in such a way as to favour the Conservatives by about 20 seats - and which will also give ample opportunity for Momentum to replace right of centre MPs with those of their own choosing.
Great point, and not only because of the boundary changes... With a decent campaign next time (if the Tories live long enough), it might be the case that JC and his sunshine band will be shown to have hit his zenith. Abbott will continue to gaffe for England, and the figures will be shown to not add up. A nod to less austerity and a bit more 'old git stroking' won't go amiss either.

CG
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 14:42
  #9998 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by charliegolf View Post
It's you doing the spinning mate! Your pinup has just screwed the pooch mahoosively, and you are still on the Corbyn-bashing. That DOES NOT make TM look any better. The Tories have, in 2 years, f**ked the country over TWICE, and you think they did it 'for the country'. The last cockup very nearly handed the keys to a pacifist, IRA sympathiser, and you are sticking with him being the clown!

CG
Not true in anyway shape or form.

Irrespective of the disaster that was the Tory campaign, and it was an utter train crash Labour under Corbyn were resoundingly beaten into second place. And that occurred despite the Corbyn 'money tree' promises, the rise of the young vote and the Tory party shooting themselves in the foot in the most spectacular fashion.

IMHO Mrs May was found to be wanting pretty much from day 1 of the election campaign and the result reflects not only her poor performance but the utter madness that was parts of the Tory manifesto, Foxhunting FFS who the **** thought that one up.

Again IMHO I suspect over the coming weeks she will decide to go, if not she will be 'encouraged' to do so. Some very serious consideration will be given to her replacement as it will need to be someone the Tory core voters can get onboard with. Another election will called and a new manifesto that wins back those core voters who simply could not vote Tory this time.

The country having realised just how Corbyn, if his own party have not already gotten rid of him, almost managed a miracle will vote in their droves to keep the Tory's in office with a sizeable majority. Especially those labour voters who also voted for Brexit as that is now going to potentially be an absolute cluster**** under this coalition.

CG,

Edited to add I posted this as you posted the above and it seems we are singing of a similar song sheet.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 14:46
  #9999 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Jetex_Jim View Post
For me the electability, or otherwise, of the British Labour party is of zero consequence.

The big issue now is, how does this change the trajectory of Brexit?
TM wanted a bigger majority to secure her mandate for hard Brexit -- so she couldn't be voted down by the House of Lords.

It's clear now that hard Brexit, is off. Staying within the customs union and the EEA are back on.
Is it though?. The lack of a decent majority give those MP's looking for Hard Brexit the power to easily block any deal that still has FoM and a Customs Union. Had May got a sizeable majority those views could have been ignored.

If a deal based on a Soft Brexit is blocked by the Hard Brexit band then time runs out and we leave without a deal which is pretty much what they want anyway.

Fun times ahead..
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 14:51
  #10000 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Jet II View Post
Is it though?. The lack of a decent majority give those MP's looking for Hard Brexit the power to easily block any deal that still has FoM and a Customs Union. Had May got a sizeable majority those views could have been ignored.

If a deal based on a Soft Brexit is blocked by the Hard Brexit band then time runs out and we leave without a deal which is pretty much what they want anyway.
I can't see it.

Key to the new constellation are the DUP. They want an open border between NI and the RI. They can't have that and hard Brexit.
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