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UK politics - Hamsterwheel

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UK politics - Hamsterwheel

Old 9th Jun 2017, 10:08
  #9961 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by PDR1 View Post
Huh?

Under Corbyn Labour have polled 12,858,652 votes (40% of votes cast) so far, with one result still to come (so that could theoretically increase by up to 30,000ish).

In 1997 under Blair Labour polled 13,518,167 votes (43.2% of votes cast).

Only Dianne Abbot would see Corbyn's number as larger than Blairs, surely?

PDR
In 2001 and 2005, Blair had significantly less votes than Corbyn. In 1997, he had slightly more.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 10:11
  #9962 (permalink)  
 
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An interesting result, no doubt hugely influenced by threats to impose massive end of life care charges on the general public. Certainly the lack of support for the Police, Armed Forces and the NHS, combined with the recent terrorist attacks in Manchester and London did nothing to help the Conservatives.

The common wisdom was that UKIP supporters were all right wing xenophobes who would be casting their vote for the Conservatives as the reasons for UKIP's existence disappeared with Brexit. It seems that the majority of UKIP support originated with Labour supporters. Who would have thunk it?!

In terms of percentages of the vote between the Comservatives and Labour, they are startlingly similar to those of the Brexit referendum. That suggests a country that is still as deeply divided as it ever was between the haves and have nots.

Ultimately this is a good result for democracy whatever ones personal political affiliations. The wisdom of the masses has spoken once more. Theresa May has a mandate to continue, but her power has been sharply curtailed. Once more the British Public have shown why our form of democracy works by insisting that our politicians are held to account.

On a personal level, I have to admit to some disappointment with the result, but I recognise that this will ultimately help steer UK politics clear of the more extreme left or right wing views and benefit the country as a whole. This is one way to keep our politicians honest, if such a thing is ever possible.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 10:19
  #9963 (permalink)  
 
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I don't think that Orac's claim that this is the worst Labour result in their history stacks up. I actually think that if a second election is called within the next 12 months (and there's a pretty good chance that one will be) then if you pardon the pun, they are the party with the momentum. A lot of voters were put off voting for Corbyn previously as he was seen as unelectable (there's a sizable chunk of the electorate like to vote for whoever they see as the likely winner). However I think that the surge in the Labour vote compared to 2015 will have changed that view in the eyes of many, meaning that a repeat election in the near future may see a further improvement in their results to the extent that they could become the largest party. As Owen Smith has already demonstrated, I think that realization will also hit many Labour MPs, and the anti-Corbyn focus of the Parliamentary Labour Party will dissipate markedly. In all parties the first question that an MP considers is whether their current leader is likely to help or hinder their chances of re-election. Until last night they thought (as did I)that Corbyn was a hindrance, but that hasn't proved to be the case.

How the Conservatives conduct themselves in the next few months will also have a huge bearing on the outcome of another near-term election. If they decide that unity around May is their best hope for staying in power then they could win another election, if they learn the lessons from their terrible campaign this time round. A previous lifelong Conservative voter was on a phone in earlier, and made an interesting point when he said that he couldn't vote for them this time as their campaign was basically to try and trash their opponents rather than give positive reasons voting Tory. As a businessman he observed that if he conducted negotiations with a potential client like that (ie just slag off his competitors) he would be out the door in an instant. Like it or loath it, the Labour campaign was oriented around the message of hope (whether it was deliverable is immaterial) and lots of voters seem to have been attracted by that, especially the young.

On the other hand if they all turn on May and force a leadership election then all bets are off, as they will spend several weeks reinforcing the perception that they have reverted to the Nasty Party. Whoever is Tory leader has a tough job ahead as they need to keep the DUP sweet by maintaining the open border with the Republic, which is likely to result in a softer Brexit than a significant number of Tory MPs want, especially as the DUP are strongly against a special deal for Northern Ireland as they view it as weakening the concept of Northern Ireland being a fully integrated part of the UK.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 10:30
  #9964 (permalink)  

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Curious Pax - very interesting post, thanks.

Has anyone heard from Boris?
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 10:36
  #9965 (permalink)  
 
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If Sinn Fein decide to attend Westminster then their 7 MPs could counter the 10 DUP MPs and obliterate May's shaky coalition.

They might even do a backroom deal with Corbyn. It's been known to happen.

Of course the oath of allegiance thing is a bit of a bugger for them, but they're mostly liars anyway so mebbe they could see their way around that minor matter.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 10:38
  #9966 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by angels View Post
Curious Pax - very interesting post, thanks.

Has anyone heard from Boris?
Apparently none of the Conservative hierarchy would agree to be interviewed on the Radio 4 "Today" programme............ Hmmm...wonder why??!!

If Sinn Fein decide to attend Westminster then their 7 MPs could counter the 10 DUP MPs and obliterate May's shaky coalition.
It won't happen, no SF members has EVER taken their seat in the House of Commons, it won't happen now>
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 10:38
  #9967 (permalink)  
 
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On the other hand if they all turn on May and force a leadership election then all bets are off, as they will spend several weeks reinforcing the perception that they have reverted to the Nasty Party.
When they turned on Saint Margaret it didn't do them any harm. John Major and his "bastards" won a straight majority subsequently.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 10:39
  #9968 (permalink)  
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If you exclude Scotland (where the voting was against the SNP and in favour of Union), it would appear that England and Wales combined voted in favour of a Labour government (though concentrated in the industrial settlements and London)?
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 10:40
  #9969 (permalink)  
 
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Apparently none of the Conservative hierarchy would agree to be interviewed on the Radio 4 "Today" programme............ Hmmm...wonder why??!!
No white smoke from the lum at Conservative Central Office?
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 10:41
  #9970 (permalink)  
 
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If you exclude Scotland (where the voting was against the SNP and in favour of Union), it would appear that England and Wales combined voted in favour of a Labour government (though concentrated in the industrial settlements and London)?
That is remarkable. Quite extraordinary in fact. For decades it has been a matter of political fact that Labour had a 50 seat safe seat majority in Jockland. Now it's all upsidedoon.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 10:41
  #9971 (permalink)  
 
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Looking in from outside and focusing on your potential new king makers, the DUP, they're pro-brexit.

However, they’re explicit about this; brexit they fancy is one that works best for the Northern Irish economy and peace process, it has an open border in Ireland, with free movement of people, goods, money and services, while obviously keeping the similar arrangement with the rest of the UK. Movement with no passports and no customs checks to the UK and EU. In essence, a very soft brexit.

The real politik of the election result is that the Tories cannot deliver a hard brexit, i.e. one based on no free movement of people. The vast majority of MP's post the 2015 election, but pre referendum were remainers (IIRC about 75%). Without a Tory majority being whipped on votes, there's now precious little chance of a hard brexit deal passing parliament and IMHO, most MP's would prefer a softer option anyway.

This result creates a new political reality; gone is the imperative of the brexit vote with the "no migrants" rhetoric (most are coming from outside the EU anyway and the UK can turn off or down that tap at any time), in comes the deal making and a 5 year term (or at least 2-3 years post negotiations) to sell the outcome.

IMHO, the most likely negotiated brexit now is EEA membership, the so called Norway model. This keeps the UK in the customs union, keeps the European Courts (and by extension access to the Single Aviation market), allows movement of goods, capital, people and services. The SNP get off the hook for indyref2 (which would no longer be needed and which they would lose badly anyway), the DUP get to save the Northern Irish economy and by extension the momentum in the peace process by keeping the movement and trade across Ireland and the UK while playing to their base and cosying up to their chums in the Conservative and Unionist Party, the Tories deliver brexit (as in out of the EU) while simultaneously claiming to have saved the Union (no indyref and NI ‘happy’) and IMHO most MP's breath a very big sigh of relief (apart of course from the member for Maidenhead) ... and everyone can point to a little party from a bit of the country that most of the UK don't really care for or know much about to either blame or commend depending on their outlook or political need.

The only down side, Nigel comes back.

JAS
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 10:41
  #9972 (permalink)  
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I actually think that if a second election is called within the next 12 months (and there's a pretty good chance that one will be)
The fixed term parliament act is still in place so the parliament will last 5 years. Yes, May managed to get a vote through the House to overturn it, which takes a two-thirds majority of the membership, but only with Labour support - and look what happened. The possibility that another such majority vote could be succeed is highly unlikely - turkeys don't vote for Xmas.

Even if a rebellion took place within the ranks on a No-Confidence vote on a single issue, the government would still have another 14 days for another No-Confidence vote on a non contentious issue.

The only chance of another early election is if the Conservatives lose a succession of about 6 by-elections, and then lose two such votes in succession. Unlikely.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 10:42
  #9973 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Planemike View Post
Apparently none of the Conservative hierarchy would agree to be interviewed on the Radio 4 "Today" programme............ Hmmm...wonder why??!!
Most probably because they are all working their arses off, whilst totally knackered from being up all night, in order to put together a coherent brief for Theresa May when she meets the Queen in 45 minutes time.................
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 10:51
  #9974 (permalink)  
 
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VP..... Yep, that could be one explanation but I do wonder whether there may be another.....?!!!!!
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 10:58
  #9975 (permalink)  
 
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turkeys don't vote for Xmas.
Oh yes they do!

Hundreds of Tories voted for this premature election and many of them have got the chop.

The SNP voted for an early election against the Callahan government and got the chop.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 11:07
  #9976 (permalink)  
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do you mean SDP and Callaghan?
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 11:16
  #9977 (permalink)  
 
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How do you like your Breggzit?
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 11:18
  #9978 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Cazalet33 View Post
Oh yes they do!

Hundreds of Tories voted for this premature election and many of them have got the chop.

The SNP voted for an early election against the Callahan government and got the chop.
This democracy business is a real bugger isn't it.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 11:34
  #9979 (permalink)  
 
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do you mean SDP and Callaghan?
Yes, I meant Jim Callahan.

No, I did not mean SDP. I meant the SNP in 1979.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 11:52
  #9980 (permalink)  
 
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A couple of things seem to be emerging here
1 A hard Brexit is probably impossible now and thank god for that , it reallywas economic suicide and in terms of unifying the country a Norway solutuion or similar is somethign most can live with from either side of the argument.

Secondly is that for the first time in UK politics social media was issued extensively -perhaps obviously given their name it was not the conservatives who adopted this but Labour. Under Blair it would have been obvious but for Corbyn with his grey beard and bike it wasn't but they used it very very effectively to win the younger voters over and more significantly get them away from Facebook to go and vote.

And perhaps now the UKIP lot have been demolished and the Conservatives won back their lost voters perhaps we can have a proper inquiry into who funded them and who funded the people who were their big donors. As the country most likely to have been behind it and are accused of involvement in the US, French and upcoming German elections it would be no surprise if it is money from the East (but not that far east) which found its way there. After all clandestine funding of obscure extreme parties or politicians in targeted countries is a staple tactic of 'intelligence services' since spooks first walked the earth, but of course that could never happen hear could it.
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