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UK politics - Hamsterwheel

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UK politics - Hamsterwheel

Old 9th Jun 2017, 08:27
  #9941 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Richard Burtonville, South Wales.
Posts: 1,874
Close call, but at least we're not going to have some feeble muppet running the country. What's that, she's not stepping down...? Oh f**k! And another thing, them 10 new primary schools aren't getting built neither- we need that £120 mil to pay for the election. Cancel the next 10 too, we'll money for the September election!

I really could have done better myself.

CG
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 08:36
  #9942 (permalink)  
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" It has actually been the first time since 1997 that Labour has gained votes."

Renaissance or resurgence .....take your pick.

I forgot to add in my earlier post.....UKIP ( again, much vaunted on here as being the party of the future )....adieu

We can only ponder as to how many Mail readers have phoned in sick this morning.......
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 08:40
  #9943 (permalink)  
 
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The numbers show that, in terms of the share of votes right now (09:30 BST), both the Conservative party and the Labour party gained, 5.5% and 9.5% respectively.

So, the real issue seems to have been the loss of vote share by all the other parties, notwithstanding the additional seats gained by the LibDems.

The LibDems lost 0.5% of the vote share, the SNP lost 1.7%, the Green party lost 2.1% and UKIP lost 10.8%.

I suspect the dynamics behind the shift in power at Westminster is extremely complex, and not a direct consequence of either the Labour or Conservative campaigns, but probably a mix of a lack lustre Conservative campaign, reservations over Jeremy Corbyn/Diane Abbott and a shift away from anything Brexit related, hence the major loss of vote share for UKIP.

I also have a suspicion that, had the Conservatives had a proper set of manifesto objectives, that addressed the major concerns of ordinary people, much as Labour tried to do, then they would have romped home.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 08:47
  #9944 (permalink)  
 
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Their arrogance was staggering- it was Alan B'stard-esque! And, in September's election, I suspect the new Tory leader will be saying, "Now listen up you stupid plebs, you nearly cocked it up in June- just do as we tell you this time!"

CG
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 08:50
  #9945 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by charliegolf View Post
Their arrogance was staggering- it was Alan B'stard-esque! And, in September's election, I suspect the new Tory leader will be saying, "Now listen up you stupid plebs, you nearly cocked it up in June- just do as we tell you this time!" CG
And you think the British electorate will take any notice ??
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 08:50
  #9946 (permalink)  
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Look at the political map of Scotland now: the whole of the Lowlands & Borders, outside Lothian, is now Conservative. The border with England is barely visible. I think it's reasonable to read that as a loss of support for independence in the areas closest to England.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 09:15
  #9947 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
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I also have a suspicion that, had the Conservatives had a proper set of manifesto objectives, that addressed the major concerns of ordinary people, much as Labour tried to do, then they would have romped home.[/QUOTE]

But they didn't and that was the problem. TM was clearly mistaken to suppose that the electorate would go along with a one issue policy. Especially after 7 years of austerity that has failed to work. They themselves knew that people needed some sort of HOPE that their aspirations would be met.
What ever has been said about JC he was and is far more in touch with voters wishes.
I don't see this as a catastrophy. We will get a far more realistic position on Brexit and a far better outcome.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 09:17
  #9948 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
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If I had been advising the Torys on the election I would have said this:

1 hold the election on the same day as the local elections. Thus giving less time for cock ups.

2 In the manifesto I would have at least halved the Foreign Aid budgets and ring fenced the money for social care.

3 left the triple lock and winter fuel payments well alone.

4 promised to strengthen the police and defence.

5 Put more emphasis on Brexit.

On these points she would have probably got a good majority.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 09:20
  #9949 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by virginblue View Post
...as I mentioned earlier, Comrade Corbyn won more votes than Tony Blair.
Huh?

Under Corbyn Labour have polled 12,858,652 votes (40% of votes cast) so far, with one result still to come (so that could theoretically increase by up to 30,000ish).

In 1997 under Blair Labour polled 13,518,167 votes (43.2% of votes cast).

Only Dianne Abbot would see Corbyn's number as larger than Blairs, surely?

PDR
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 09:26
  #9950 (permalink)  

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The cold hard fact is that if I lose just six seats I will lose this election, and Jeremy Corbyn will be sitting down to negotiate with the presidents, prime ministers and chancellors of Europe.
That was a cold hard lie.

May is heading off to the Palace to tell the Queen she's going to form a government.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 09:40
  #9951 (permalink)  
 
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Just revert to direct rule from Europe. Couldn't be more incompetent than the lot we have on both sides now.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 09:45
  #9952 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
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In some respects this is the worst result in Labour history.

Twice in the past Labour underwent Trotskyite infiltration which resulted in them being out of power for a generation. The first was the period 1926-31 when the Comintern actually encouraged their members to join and which resulted in Ramsay McDonald crossing the floor to form a national government with the Liberals and Conservatives which lasted until 1945. As a result the party strengthened its internal structure and rules, barred communist membership, and purged the CLP.

The second was in the 1970s when Militant attempted a take-over of the party through the CLPs and which led to the schism with the "Gang of Four", the foundation of the SDP and the rise of Thatcherism, with Labour not taking power again until Blair in 1997. The attempt was defeated when the then leader, Michael Foot, and then Kinnock had a change of heart and purged Momentum from the party.

We now have the same situation with Momemtum (and many of the same individuals from Militant) who are attempting to force through the same policy changes at the next party conference later this year - in particular the further reduction in the ability of the PLP to block left wing candidates for party leader by reducing the percent required amongst its members for nomination from 15% to 5%; and the power of recall for CLPs to be able to recall and deselect an MP which does not obey their orders.

If Labour had lost this election catastrophically then it was probable these motions would have been defeated, they are now highly like to have passed. If Labour had won the election with their present manifesto they would have had 5 years in government to allow Corbyn et al to understand the practicalities of power and present a similar or more moderate manifesto at the next election.

Now, however, it is likely the next 4 years will see Momentum consolidate their hold on the CLPs and the NEC and a purge of many of the moderate Labour MPs. There is also the probability of many of these splitting from Labour to the affiliated Co-operative party and attempting to become the official opposition. Even if they don't it is certain that the current Labour manifesto will be replaced by a far more radical and left wing manifesto by a Momentum dominated NEC and conference.

With no possibility of Corbyn being willing to purge Momentum as previous leaders purged the hard left, it is possible that Labour will not be out of power for a generation, but forever.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 09:49
  #9953 (permalink)  
 
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Blimey talk about spin in the wake of last night...You are Lynton Crosby and I claim my £5..........................
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 09:51
  #9954 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
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Wiggy - basically a précis of my degree dissertation - submitted in mid-May. I can email you a copy if you want. No post election spin.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 09:57
  #9955 (permalink)  
 
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Ummm ... Strong and Stable? ah ... right. Firm and effective leadership? ... ah ... yes.
An old Service saying was "I haven't laughed so much since the day Ma caught her t..ts in the mangle!" Well, sort of, but the truth is that yet ANOTHER TORY leader has made a complete 'Horlicks' of things. What on earth do the bumbling Blues think that the EU negotiators will consider her arguments to be worth? The 'sewer Press' can babble on all they want but this oafish woman (and her advisors) are now responsible for OUR future well-being from a position of being totally ridiculed. I have a vague recollection that, somewhere in this preceding mass of verbiage, someone suggested the possibility of Davis or (Heaven Forbid!) Tweedledumb Johnson as replacements. PLEASE tell me that I am mistaken ... will they NEVER learn?While one can accept that Trossie, Gouli et al cannot stomach anything which offends their sense of Tory predestination as rulers of the plebs, surely somewhere within their Party there is a modicum of commonsense (not suggesting humility, of course!)
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 09:59
  #9956 (permalink)  
 
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She's nearly gone. That was so close. She'll be gone before Christmas 2017.
Soft Brexit a certainty. That is remain with only the loss of voting rights....
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 10:00
  #9957 (permalink)  
 
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I'm inclined to agree with ORAC, but with the reservation that many of the younger Labour supporters won't have the life experience to see through to the impossibility of left wing idealism. The future of the Labour party is not in the hands of the electorate, in my view, but is beholden to the rifts that are widening between factions within the party.

Many of the Labour MPs elected/re-elected last night will oppose Jeremy Corbyn, as they have done in the past, and there are enough of them to break the party apart, if, as seems likely, it moves further to the left, with increasing domination my the Momentum minority. Momentum have a loud voice, but I doubt they represent the views of many of the electorate as a whole, and that will be what ultimately stops them achieving their ambitions.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 10:05
  #9958 (permalink)  
 
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Look at the political map of Scotland now: the whole of the Lowlands & Borders, outside Lothian, is now Conservative. The border with England is barely visible. I think it's reasonable to read that as a loss of support for independence in the areas closest to England.


Also areas closest to Norway - and areas furthest from the sea.

Not much of a pattern then. Just a severe drubbing for the wee Krankie wumman and her IndyRefn+1 formula..
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 10:08
  #9959 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by PDR1 View Post
Huh?

Under Corbyn Labour have polled 12,858,652 votes (40% of votes cast) so far, with one result still to come (so that could theoretically increase by up to 30,000ish).

In 1997 under Blair Labour polled 13,518,167 votes (43.2% of votes cast).

Only Dianne Abbot would see Corbyn's number as larger than Blairs, surely?

PDR
In 2001 and 2005, Blair had significantly less votes than Corbyn. In 1997, he had slightly more.
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Old 9th Jun 2017, 10:11
  #9960 (permalink)  
 
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An interesting result, no doubt hugely influenced by threats to impose massive end of life care charges on the general public. Certainly the lack of support for the Police, Armed Forces and the NHS, combined with the recent terrorist attacks in Manchester and London did nothing to help the Conservatives.

The common wisdom was that UKIP supporters were all right wing xenophobes who would be casting their vote for the Conservatives as the reasons for UKIP's existence disappeared with Brexit. It seems that the majority of UKIP support originated with Labour supporters. Who would have thunk it?!

In terms of percentages of the vote between the Comservatives and Labour, they are startlingly similar to those of the Brexit referendum. That suggests a country that is still as deeply divided as it ever was between the haves and have nots.

Ultimately this is a good result for democracy whatever ones personal political affiliations. The wisdom of the masses has spoken once more. Theresa May has a mandate to continue, but her power has been sharply curtailed. Once more the British Public have shown why our form of democracy works by insisting that our politicians are held to account.

On a personal level, I have to admit to some disappointment with the result, but I recognise that this will ultimately help steer UK politics clear of the more extreme left or right wing views and benefit the country as a whole. This is one way to keep our politicians honest, if such a thing is ever possible.
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