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UK politics - Hamsterwheel

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UK politics - Hamsterwheel

Old 6th Jun 2017, 15:13
  #9801 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
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Who says we are dropping of the cliff?
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Old 6th Jun 2017, 15:16
  #9802 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Seldomfitforpurpose View Post
Who says we are dropping of the cliff?
That is my expectation.
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Old 6th Jun 2017, 15:19
  #9803 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
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Originally Posted by kungfu panda View Post
Well you may know it "for a fact" but there is a significant amount of concern over this issue. I guess we'll find out who is correct in summer 2019.
The "concern" is just bullshit, like all the crap about repealing EU regulations (that happen to be enshrined in UK law, anyway) in order to scare people.
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Old 6th Jun 2017, 15:22
  #9804 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2011
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VP959: For a scientist your language is very poor.
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Old 6th Jun 2017, 15:26
  #9805 (permalink)  
 
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'kungfu panda' or 'kungfu eeyore'?
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Old 6th Jun 2017, 15:28
  #9806 (permalink)  
 
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It's Panda with a capital 'P'
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Old 6th Jun 2017, 15:31
  #9807 (permalink)  
 
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I would never have bought into the fact that the world would end the day after the referendum. I do buy into a massive recession beginning the day after we drop off the cliff.
So armageddon didnt happen on the day it was forcast (June24th) lets kick it down the road a bit!! you sound like one of those cult religions who keep forcasting the end of the world.
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Old 6th Jun 2017, 15:36
  #9808 (permalink)  
 
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Rob. I'm not kicking anything down the road. I have always made my opinion clear. There will be the worst recession the UK has recently experienced after we drop off the cliff, not before, I have never said before.

What I admit to being wrong about is that I thought TM would be gone by last Christmas. She will be gone soon though.
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Old 6th Jun 2017, 15:40
  #9809 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
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Originally Posted by kungfu panda
It's Panda with a capital 'P'
Well, quite of bit of those 'forecasts' are "capital 'P' "!!


I have an optimistic outlook ... as long as Corbyn doesn't get elected! But then I'm optimistic that he won't.
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Old 6th Jun 2017, 15:59
  #9810 (permalink)  
 
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There will be the worst recession the UK has recently experienced after we drop off the cliff, not before, I have never said before.
But who said we are going to drop off a cliff? trade with the EU will not stop overnight when we leave, indeed where that to happen I think it might be the EU dropping off a cliff.
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Old 6th Jun 2017, 16:24
  #9811 (permalink)  
 
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You are right Rob, what is allowed under WTO will not stop..
Everything else will until an agreement is in place. That includes Airlines...
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Old 6th Jun 2017, 17:14
  #9812 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Simmbob View Post
Remember the late 70's,

The last time a proper labour government was in power .. not Blair.

Beer and sandwiches in No 10. Strikes galore . and Britain was a laughing stock ...

Corbyn is even further to the left than that rabble.

Simmbob
There is something faintly amusing about the prospect of a Corbyn win on Thursday. The result would be the beginning of a tragi-comedy, the likes of which the country never envisaged.

A win for him would cause great upheaval in the financial sector with a run on the pound and the cancellation of investment by many leading manufacturers and employers. His first budget would promise spending plans far in excess of what was in his manifesto coupled with a large rise in general taxation and VAT. Diane Abbott tries to explain that all this massive increase in spending and free stuff will cost each person the price of one KFC bucket every year. This triggers further capital flight and a significant increase in the price of staple products.

After an unexpected repeal of union legislation, the unions flex their muscles by calling strikes across all sectors demanding big wage increases to offset the rapid rise in inflation caused by Corbyns policies. Manufacturing and public services start to suffer.

Unexpectedly the Queen dies and when plans for a state funeral are announced, Corbyn and Abbott say they cannot attend as he is scheduled to meet representatives from Hezbollah in the morning and both will go to an LGBT conference in the afternoon. Diane Abbott gives further cause for concern about her mental state when she instead turns up at the AGM of the MGBGT owners club and demands to speak.

With the collapse of services, and supermarkets running short of food, people take to the streets to protest. Offers of help from the people of Venezuela are rejected.

With civil strife increasing, the police and armed forces refuse to turn their guns on the populace and a complete collapse of civilised behaviour begins. The whole farce ends when Wikileaks reveal that Corbyn has asked Merkel to send German troops to quell the disturbance.

It all comes to and end when Corbyns cabinet meets a Mussolini type fate where the old Tyburn gallows used to be sited.


Remember, you heard it here first
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Old 6th Jun 2017, 17:55
  #9813 (permalink)  
 
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Dieu Et Mon Droit

At least the weather forecast for Thursday is for inclement weather, which usually favours the Conservative vote. Looks like Theresa May has support in higher places, so you know which is the right way to vote!
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Old 6th Jun 2017, 18:32
  #9814 (permalink)  
 
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Airbus and other large manufacturers won't cease production in the UK on the day we leave the EU. We all agree that it takes years to enact change on that scale. But do you seriously expect Airbus, BMW etc to put the UK at the top of their investment options when existing models are retired / replaced a few years down the line.
Some things will be off a cliff. It's highly likely that the EU will prevent Euro clearing from being performed in a non EU centre, so some (very profitable) financial activities will move immediately.
I'm still waiting for the Brexiteers to tell me why being outside a major trade block suddenly enables us to trade more easily.... This talk of getting a good trade deal is the equivalent of me saying I'll win euromillions next week. It would be wonderful if it happened but the odds are so stacked the other way. When EU27 are all completely united in saying we can't get the same terms outside the EU, why do Brexiteers still think we can???
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Old 6th Jun 2017, 18:50
  #9815 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by kungfu panda View Post
You are right Rob, what is allowed under WTO will not stop..
Everything else will until an agreement is in place. That includes Airlines...
No it doesn't. That claim was debunked the last time that Pace made it.
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Old 6th Jun 2017, 18:52
  #9816 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
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Reinforcing the Labour Uncut prediction, we have the Ashcroft prediction.

Lord Ashcroft: My election model?s probabilities suggest a potential Conservative majority of 64 | Conservative Home

"The Conservatives remain on course to win a majority in the general election, according to new figures from the Ashcroft Model. Our “combined probabilistic model”, which calculates the sum of each party’s win chances in all the seats in which it is standing, estimates 357 Tory seats, or a potential majority of 64 (up four from the previous update published last Friday). However, this central estimate, based on an update survey conducted over the weekend, combines the data from three different turnout scenarios: including all those who currently say they will vote on Thursday (giving a Conservative majority of 70); including all those who say they voted in the EU referendum (a Conservative majority of 48); and assuming turnout matches that of the 2015 election (a Conservative majority of 78).......

As always, it is important to emphasise that the Ashcroft Model deals with probabilities not predictions, meaning the actual result may well fall either side of these estimates. The range of probabilities in each turnout scenario is shown below. In the 2015 turnout scenario, for example, the model estimates that the greatest probability is a majority between 60 and 79 (34.8 per cent), followed by a majority of 80 to 99 (27.1 per cent); it also finds a 22.4 per cent probability of a Conservative majority over 100. The higher turnout scenarios, meanwhile, estimate a lower range of majorities.".......
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Old 6th Jun 2017, 19:23
  #9817 (permalink)  
 
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---------------and it's going to sheet down with rain.
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Old 6th Jun 2017, 20:04
  #9818 (permalink)  
 
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The truth about the Abbott sickie?

Ms Abbott is the third public figure to fall victim to hoax emails after the Governor of the Bank of England was tricked into discussing a predecessor’s drinking habits with the prankster.

The fake email from a prankster pretending to be Mr Milne to Ms Abbott reads: "JC and I have been talking this morning and it's our opinion that we should add some colour to the illness that prevented you from appearing on Woman's Hour this morning.
"Flesh it out with some more detail if you will, perhaps also mention some medication which might be retrospectively seen as a mitigating reason for the Murnaghan interview."

To which Ms Abbott allegedly replied: "I'm not sure what colour I can add. I have always enjoyed good health until the last few years. And diabetes, in itself, would not stop me doing Women's Hour.

"I am worried about telling untruths about my health which are easily disproved."
Diane Abbott appears to fall victim to a hoax email conversation with online prankster
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Old 6th Jun 2017, 20:51
  #9819 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by kungfu panda View Post
That is my expectation.
You have clearly swallowed Project Fear.
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Old 7th Jun 2017, 02:32
  #9820 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.ft.com/content/5c4e3720-...9-9f94ee97d996

Election campaigns, with their tendency to elevate obfuscation over argument and slogan above fact, are often dispiriting. None, I can recall, more than this one. Brexit is the most consequential political and economic choice the nation has faced since 1945. Yet beyond the glib promises to be a tough negotiator, Mrs May refuses to talk about life outside the EU.
...
Ask about the future of British manufacturing, the City of London, the shape of a national regime for agriculture, or the rough outlines of a national immigration policy and the response is silence. In her pitch for voters who once backed the UK Independence party, Mrs May promises draconian cuts in the number of immigrants. No discussion is permitted of the consequences.
Brexit means Brexit.
It will be strong and stable.
And doubtless other gnomic slogans.

The election campaign has shown Mrs May to be anything but strong and stable. Brittle and prone to reverse herself are more like it. She can expect to win on June 8 only because of the self-indulgence of Jeremy Corbyn, a Labour leader who has taken his party to the distant fringes of far-left irrelevance.
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