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UK politics - Hamsterwheel

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UK politics - Hamsterwheel

Old 29th Apr 2010, 15:11
  #441 (permalink)  
 
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Not beyond the bounds of possibility Mr D....

King: Election winner will be out of power for a generation

Whichever party wins this election will have to inflict such painful austerity measures on the British population that they will soon find themselves out of power for generation. Not my words, the words of Mervyn King, Bank of England Governor.

Or so says American economist David Hale, who says King confided this with him over lunch last week. To be precise, he said: “I saw the Governor of the Bank of England last week when I was in London and he told me whoever wins this election will be out of power for a whole generation because of how tough the fiscal austerity will have to be.” Ouch.......

But the main point I would take away from King’s (alleged) comments is this: no-one yet comprehends just how tough the next five years will be. For obvious reasons: we have not experienced anything like it in our lifetimes. We have been insulated from the full pain of the financial/economic crisis so far by unprecedented low interest rates and by the bank bail-outs. At some point, the anaesthetic will wear off and we will face a period of austerity that may well make the ruling party so unpopular that it effectively becomes unelectable for decades. There will be strikes; there will be stagnation; there will probably be a double dip of some variety. But this time the pain will be unmistakeably imposed by the politicians............
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Old 29th Apr 2010, 15:41
  #442 (permalink)  
 
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And it gets even worse for Labour....

Has Kerry McCarthy revealed postal votes results on Twi**er?

The following Tw**t was published today by @Kerry4MP, the account of Bristol East Labour PPC candidate and former MP Kerry McCarthy (aka Labour’s Twitter tsar). But I have edited out the figures for the very good reason that it is against the law to reveal such information. And not just a bit against the law, but very much against it:

@Kerry4MP First PVs opened in east Bristol, our sample: Lib Dem xx; Tory xx; Labour xx. #gameON!

Game on, indeed. But not quite in the way she imagined. ToryBear has just retweeted with the line: “someone call the police.”

[Update: This is being taken seriously. ToryBear has just posted: "Right now Bristol council are receiving complaints about that pesky 1983 Act, Section 66 (1) and 66 (2)" And the Electoral Commission has been alerted.]
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Old 29th Apr 2010, 15:50
  #443 (permalink)  
 
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Some of us....particularly in the Antipodes, are eagerly awaiting the news of the stoush tonight which hopefully will bring Broon (one daren't say The One Eyed Scottish Idiot in case certain other Pruners come after one) down to his knees.

Pleeeeeze post a blow by blow description of the debate
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Old 29th Apr 2010, 17:17
  #444 (permalink)  
 
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Down in Bavaria the inhabitants are becoming a little restless at the thought of bailing out the economically mendacious and profligate state of Greece. The poor Bavarians will be even more upset, as will the Rhinelanders and the rest of the Germans when and if they are called on the fund the rest of the PIGS. Meanwhile, Sarkozy, slides slimmily away hoping that no one will notice his slipperiness. Reflect then that Great Britain is untouched, other than by market influences, in this sorry Euro debacle, a direct result of allowing a country into a union for political polemical reasons when that country was obviously completely unequipped for the privilige. Think about the fact that Britain is the prime advocate of the admission of Turkey into the EU and so, by extension, Euroland. Then please just remember, that out of the three chancellors of the excheuqer, real or in waiting, Vince Cable, of the Liberal Democrats, is the only one who is a self avowed Europhile and an absolute advocate of Britiains joining the euro as soon as possible. Britain, in its present state of economic parlousness simply cannot afford the leap of faith into the abyss that support of the Liberal Democrats even remotely could risk.
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Old 29th Apr 2010, 17:24
  #445 (permalink)  
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I am glad the Court told that odious little man, Alex Salmond, where to shove his action.

On the one hand he wants devolution, but on the other he wants to maintain a presence in the parliament of the country he's aiming to devolve from.
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Old 29th Apr 2010, 17:44
  #446 (permalink)  
 
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On the one hand he wants devolution, but on the other he wants to maintain a presence in the parliament of the country he's aiming to devolve from.
He already has devolution. He wants independence, which would come about as a decision from the British parliament. How is he supposed to achieve this goal unless his party is represented at Westminster?

He, personally, is not standing for re-election at Westminster.

As regards his court action, he could not lose either way. In the remote possibility he succeeded, he would have been up there with the big boys. Now he has failed (as no doubt he expected) he can turn to the Scottish voters and show that they count for nought in London and chalk up another mark for his independence campaign. In fact, I suspect, he would prefer the latter.
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Old 29th Apr 2010, 17:48
  #447 (permalink)  
 
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Ok siseman I'll do it for you.

"That unelected one eyed Scottish idiot!!!"
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Old 29th Apr 2010, 18:04
  #448 (permalink)  
 
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I do not think Gordon Brown is an idiot.
But he certainly is a bigot.
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Old 29th Apr 2010, 19:39
  #449 (permalink)  
 
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I have done some back of the fag packet calculations based on information from the BBC.

Government current spend £704bn
Current income 541bn
Borrowing for shortfall 704-541=£163bn pa

163bn is £447m per day, or £7.45 for every man, woman and child, everyday.

This works out at £2719 per person. But as only 28m of the 60m population work, this is £5625 per working person.

So just to stop the countries debt increasing every working person needs to pay £5625 more tax EVERY YEAR from now on.

Alternatively we can make spending cuts of 163bn, this means a reduction in public spend of 23%.

Realistically I suppose the answer is a combination of the two.

Our Social Protection spend is £196bn, and we are borrowing £163bn to fund it.

These figures stop the countries debt growing, but what about the debt we have? Well currently it is £890bn. This works out as and extra tax burden of £1271 pa per working person over the next 25 years, if we start now.

And I have learnt from the BBC today this does not include ghost debts, and the public pension purse.

Ghost debts? Apparently this is things like the new Birmingham hospital built with private money, but the Government will pay for over a number of years. In the case of the Birmingham Hospital, cost £670m.No-one has an exact figure of this total 'ghost debt'.

Public pension, this is not included in the £890bn debt, but at the moment is £770bn, expected to rise to £1tn over the next few years.

Add these costs to the £1271 above and you have doubled it to about £2500pa. So if the spending is not cut by 23% and left unchecked we (the 28m workers) need to pay £8000 pa extra tax to balance the books.
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Old 29th Apr 2010, 19:56
  #450 (permalink)  
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Did I hear Mandy saying "we are all human"? How does he know?

Thought 2 : While the leaders jockey for position, its a shame Mrs Duffy didn't live in Leicester. I'll leave that on with you
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Old 29th Apr 2010, 21:55
  #451 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by baggersup View Post
Mr. Brown does seem to be holding his own
I did wonder about his strange posture.

In all seriousness, I thought tonight was Brown's worse performance yet. He went for Cameron in a big way at the start of the debate, but then got bogged down in his own negativity. He ended up repeating exactly the same things he'd said in the previous two debates over and over again. He looked tired, and at one point virtually conceded that Cameron was likely to be PM next week with Lib Dem support.

He looked and sounded like a beaten man.

I thought Clegg shaded it again, although two instant polls called it for Cameron, with Brown a distant third in both cases.
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Old 29th Apr 2010, 21:58
  #452 (permalink)  
 
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Der absolute Hammer

When are you Germans actually going to become Germans again? No these softcocks like Adenauer and that greasy little man Fischer, but the clever ones like von Moltke, Bosch, Krupp and Bismarck?

Christ, you almost had us in 1940 and we've been lying there like a partially-robed coke ho just waiting to be violated.

Ever since the Wirttschaftswunder of the 1960s,.you've become complacent. It's a shame. I love Germany.

SO
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Old 29th Apr 2010, 22:15
  #453 (permalink)  
 
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Sea Oxen,

UKIP are following Bismark's policy of trying to isolate Britain in Europe...
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Old 29th Apr 2010, 22:44
  #454 (permalink)  
 
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I hope it works out for you folks. I haven't really been following this thread, or the debate for that matter, however, I happened to catch this picture on Drudge and it reminded me of a TV show we have over here; Dancing with the Stars.



Best wishes though.
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Old 29th Apr 2010, 22:57
  #455 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by 11Fan View Post
Dancing with the Stars.
So who are the stars these three yahoos going to dance with?
 
Old 29th Apr 2010, 23:54
  #456 (permalink)  
 
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So, as the next Government is going to be chosen by who Nick Clegg forms an alliance with, then might just as well vote for Cleggie as he will obviously demand to be PM in any alliance.

Can't be any worse than what we have already.
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Old 30th Apr 2010, 00:08
  #457 (permalink)  
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Can't be any worse than what we have already.
Yes we can.
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Old 30th Apr 2010, 03:07
  #458 (permalink)  
 
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I think the view that the Wstminster Village represents the real world has been proved wrong yet again on the Brown/Duffy affair.YouGov showed remarkably little change after the events of Rochdale,possibly a move of 2% or so from Lab to LD.

People keep focusing on Labour and Brown's deficiencies and these are not the key to an election that Labour were never going to win.The key isues are these.

A. Will Cameron get 40% of the vote

B. Will Clegg get 30%

If A does not occur the remaining 60% + will prevent him getting a majority.If B does occur the 100+ seats the LD get will do the same. If both were to occur the Labour vote would need to fall below 25% and that isn't likely to happen.That proportion of the electorate are sufficiently left wing to believe that the allegation of bigotry was correct.
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Old 30th Apr 2010, 09:36
  #459 (permalink)  
 
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Yakker, as you are good with figures. Here's a test for you.

As the government has purchased shares in several banks, what do the share prices of these banks need to increase to for the government to get a worthwhile return on their 'investment'?

I only ask as I dipped my own toe into the RBS pool for 14p/share. They are now up at 57p.

HSBC is now at a level above the price the government paid, apparently.

Obviously, if the shares were sold off on masse the share prices would tumble in short order, but I am curious to know if Mr Brown has pulled a fast one and actually his plan is to pay off the national nebt with a Thatcher type privatisation of the banks-again!

Just asking.

Someone will no-doubt tell us it's not that simple.

My apologies for the misuse or otherwise of any apostrophy in this post.
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Old 30th Apr 2010, 09:38
  #460 (permalink)  
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re Mr. Brown's Gaffe, I think Boris has the right attitude:
If we judged everybody by the stupid, unguarded things they blurt out to their nearest and dearest, then we wouldn’t ever get anywhere.
...
Just keep it up. Everybody is praying for it to be over. That’s why Gordon Brown goofed so badly. There’s just exhaustion. I’d try to take the weekend off.
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