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PEAK OIL! The end of aviation as we know it?

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PEAK OIL! The end of aviation as we know it?

Old 14th Mar 2006, 17:16
  #21 (permalink)  

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No one really knows when the stuff will run out but run out it will. There are flaws in the arguments on both sides. Oil companies along with other mineral extraction companies only tend to forecast 25 years ahead, there is very little point in forecasting further than this because something may have superseeded oil by then. I remember reading in 1980 that oil would run out by 2000 and I thought 'I'll be 25 by then'. Im 30 now and Im still driving a petrol powered car and flying in a petrol powered aeroplane of a weekend.
For many reasons efforts to conserve oil are worthy and I think the world as a whole should be putting vastly more money and effort into finding alternative fuels. Much oil (and gas) comes from unstable parts of the world, I wonder if this is coincidence or whether the economic effects of having vast oil reserves makes these places unstable. If the UK were to become self sufficient in energy it would be in a much more powerful position than it is now. The price will always be susceptible to speculation and be over sensitive to political interference.
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Old 14th Mar 2006, 17:24
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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Talking

My family has been in the oil/gas biz for 5 generations...

The Barnett Shale is kicking a#$ here in North Central Texas...Beau coup natural gas. We're printing money...

Instead of freaking out why not jump on the band wagon and invest in some working interest?

God bless the doomsayers for driving up the price. I love them. Keep up the good work....



OL
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Old 14th Mar 2006, 17:32
  #23 (permalink)  

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I have no disagreement with what you just posted Lance.

The world does need to conserve the rate of oil and gas consumption, of that there is no doubt. The percentage of oil consumption for aviation use is very low, somewhere under 5% depending on which source is used.

I feel that the first step is to restrict the use of oil for production of electrical power. Coal can be used if, and it is a VERY big if, coal powered power-plants are build to be non-polluting. It can be done, however it also very expensive.

All modes of transportation except aviation can be fueled by hybrid engines/power-plants. Ships, trains (in fact most trains are a form of hybrid, the diesel-electric engine, the diesel engines drive electric motors/generators that drive the wheel of the locomotive), automobiles, trucks, etc.

Now, will the world ever totally run out of oil and natural gas? I am of the school of thought that the earth is constantly producing oil and gas, however, the rate of consumption very well may exceed the regeneration rate of the earth. However the odds of that happing in our lifetime is for all practical purposes nil.

(Of course the last part is pretty well assured for me, I'm 58. )

Just kidding.
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Old 14th Mar 2006, 17:38
  #24 (permalink)  

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overlord, before you get jumped on (What here in Jet Blast? ) I can remember that not long ago all of us in the oil and gas business were going broke.

It's all a cycle, up and down. It just happens to be up right now.

(Remember the late 70's and early 80's, man, we had all the money in the world. Then in 1985 there were oil men pumping gas in gas stations trying to keep their homes.)
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Old 14th Mar 2006, 18:50
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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>overlord, before you get jumped on (What here in Jet Blast? ) I can remember that not long ago all of us in the oil and gas business were going broke.

It's all a cycle, up and down. It just happens to be up right now.

(Remember the late 70's and early 80's, man, we had all the money in the world. Then in 1985 there were oil men pumping gas in gas stations trying to keep their homes.)Today 18:32<

Yeah,

I remember it well. I went to school to be a petroleum engineer (after roughnecking and well servicing for a few of years...) and about half way through, that idiot Jimmy Carter and his fellow communists in the Democratic Party enacted the "Windfall Profits Tax", and ALL the investment money dried up, and the bottom fell out of the oil patch. The result being that we are now dependant on foreign oil resources. One wonders, do these morons know ANYTHING about economics?

I remember the old joke, "Please God, let there be one more boom, and I promise I won't p*%$ it away next time".

Well, this time I ain't p%$#@!& it away!

I'm investing in "shallow plays" and raking in the cash. I hope oil hits $200/bbl...(drooling on self...). Bummer for the EU and all the nimrods who surfed cheap gas for all those years. I didn't see any of them crying when we were starving to death and having to mow lawns and trim trees for a living.

And, I couldn't care less if the airlines go broke. I'm flying an old King Air 200 and 99% of my clients are in the oil/gas biz and life is good. Between my flying and my investments I'm kickin' better than $100K...It's MY turn now. In fact, I hope the airlines DO go broke. More $$$ for ME!!!!

IMHO the current business model for the airlines is antiquated at best. They have turned themselves into a bus service. Ever been to the Greyhound terminal in Oklahoma City? That's where the airlines are headed. Crack heads and dope dealers and prostitutes and just-released convicts going home for the first time in 25 years will be their major customers.

The folks with $$$ will charter.

And let's not even mention the fears that regular folks have with airline terrorism and hijacking and whatnot..."Dear, do you think that guy in 4A might have a box knife?"

Adios, American, Delta, United, Continental, et al. S#$%@ them. I applied to ALL of them when I had over 5000 hours and I never got even a hate mail in response. Meanwhile they're hiring "minorities" with wet ink on a CPL/Instrument rating??? And now, to add injury to insult, they are lobbying for Euro style user fees for ATC services. Oh yeah, now THAT'S a good idea...Let's cripple air transportation here too.

But I digress...

OL
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Old 15th Mar 2006, 09:10
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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that idiot Jimmy Carter and his fellow communists in the Democratic Party
God bless America, whilst I am not doubting the claims of former President Carter was an idiot, the latter part makes me realise that the current fool/corporate puppet Bush was in fact voted in by an even greater number of idiots.
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Old 15th Mar 2006, 15:09
  #27 (permalink)  

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God bless America, whilst I am not doubting the claims of former President Carter was an idiot, the latter part makes me realise that the current fool/corporate puppet Bush was in fact voted in by an even greater number of idiots.

The 'Hamster wheel' thread is closed.
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Old 15th Mar 2006, 15:26
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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To get back on topic....


IMHO, you will never ever see this world run completely out of oil. All that will happen is that other technologies (such as hydrogen, biofuels or electric fuel cells) will mature and become cheaper than oil to run your car. We are starting to see that now with the new Hybid cars (in europe anyway) and biofuels in Brazil.

Trust me, it will all come good

Matt
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Old 15th Mar 2006, 15:47
  #29 (permalink)  

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The reserves in Alaska in the area that is off limits to production is estimated to be in excess of 16 Billion barrels of oil.
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Old 15th Mar 2006, 18:19
  #30 (permalink)  

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New oil field discovered in the Gulf of Mexico.

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2...4/125153.shtml
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Old 15th Mar 2006, 18:34
  #31 (permalink)  
 
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Overlord:

Despite the hard times and rejections you have been through, it's nice to see that you're not bitter about it!
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Old 15th Mar 2006, 19:11
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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Dave Martin,



I have to agree with what MME wrote. There are new forms of energy being developed, and, for example in Brazil, cars can also be run with sugar cane alcohol, that is available in any gas station. The higher oil price will make people think twice before buying a SUV to take their kids to school, what, in my point of view is good. Oil is a limited product, that pollutes the enviroment; thus, its use should be rational. So, aviation will never stop, as there is no other way to change the fuel (whichever form it is like oil or alcohol) for electricity, but people can surelly leave their cars in the garage and walk a bit more or buy a bike. That would for sure lower obesity cases.
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Old 15th Mar 2006, 19:17
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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10 characters
Originally Posted by Astra driver
Overlord:
Despite the hard times and rejections you have been through, it's nice to see that you're not bitter about it!
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Old 16th Mar 2006, 03:35
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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>Worst case scenario the crazie Iranians take umbrage at Mr Bush and close the straits of Hormuz with their happy little fleet of suicide boats just itchin to get to those 70 virgins tout suite So oil hits $200 a barrel because the slippery Saudis and a bunch of other camel drivers are in terrorist sympathy with the rest of the blackmailing opec' ers possible I think<

Yes, Iran will attempt to block the Straits of Hormuz. Then we will bomb them to the stone age. I get rich. Game over.

>Despite the hard times and rejections you have been through, it's nice to see that you're not bitter about it! <

Thanks! I'm not bitter, I just realize now that my mother was right, I should have been a lawyer....I really wanted to be an architect.... Anybody who gets into aviation dreaming of big bucks and lots of time off is an idiot. Me included. Bummer I'm too old to start another career...

OL
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Old 16th Mar 2006, 09:34
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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Since I do not believe in god, I will take this working time and do some scuba diving....
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Old 16th Mar 2006, 10:07
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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Adolf Hitler ran a world war that involved a lot of aviation very succesfully for a couple of years with fuel made from carrot tops and acorns.
We never learn,never put all your eggs in one basket or allow anyone with a beard to be your sole supplier.
Coal,!!we got lossa it up here.
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Old 16th Mar 2006, 10:36
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Overlord, much of what you say may well be correct but for your sake, get some therapy. All this hate will burn you up!

QUOTE
"Yes, Iran will attempt to block the Straits of Hormuz. Then we will bomb them to the stone age. I get rich. Game over. "

And you wonder why as a nation much of the world despises and mistrusts you.

'God bless America!'
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Old 16th Mar 2006, 13:44
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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Well, when you run out of air you will probably doing some hasty calls to the supplier

Originally Posted by Eisenhower
Since I do not believe in god, I will take this working time and do some scuba diving....
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Old 16th Mar 2006, 14:47
  #39 (permalink)  
 
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Have a look at the link to get an idea of the currently available oil reserves. Pay particular attention to the oil shale fields in Canada and Venezuela which are measured in trillions rather than the more usual billions of barrels. Now that oil is in excess of $50 / barrel these are practical propositions.

Biofuels are all well and good as a supplement to fossil / nuclear / wind / wave generated power. They are very area inefficient though. To provide ALL of the UK's electrical needs an area greater than the land area of the UK would need to be planted with Rape (one of the more efficient oil generating crops)......... Better to concentrate on using biofuels as vehicular fuel rather than power generation fuel IMHO.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_fields
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Old 19th Mar 2006, 02:00
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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I remember as a kid the OPEC oil embargo of 1973. Everybody bleeted and screamed how the oil was gonna run out, how oil prices were gonna keep on rising, economys destroyed, etc etc etc.

Never gettin sucked in again. Same sh!t diferent decade.
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