couldn't agree more, i much prefer being in an office environment amongst peers.

I wonder how many pilots have found work in the private jet industry and if any expansion there is to stay or expand further? For those passengers that can afford to travel on a private jet, are they really going to want to go back to scheduled flights and busy airports?

I know none of you will follow my advice, but I will say it neverthess.

Run as fast you can. This industry is done. It ain't worth it, the money is gone, the T&C will get worse and worse.

The job is boring like hell. Shift work destroys your health, your soul and your family life. You will stay in mediocre hotels, work like a slave and the automation will kerp you going like a patient in a coma on life support. The glamour of long haul is all but a distant memory. Productivity pay will be the standard globally, and you will compete with labor from second and third world countries.

If you are young enough, go back to Uni and aim at a career with a better future and a more attractive lifestyle.

All pilots who lost their jobs will return. They don't have alternatives apart from driving an Uber.

Greetings from Asia

I'll believe there's a pilot shortage AFTER all the guys and gals laid off this year have got jobs again.

Pilot shortage is a carrot dangling in front of us for as long as I can remember ( 25 years in the industry now).

“ There is a light at the end of the tunnel “.........was a train .

No I believe you are wrong. Specially low cost airlines don't care about the unemployed F/O's with experience. They want cadets because they can make money out of them making them pay for training and typerating. It's a business model....

JP73, I largely second what you say. There seems to be a middle ground for the FOs which is when they are already not cadets, but nowhere near command yet. And some airlines seem to leave those guys out for the aforementioned reasons. Of course, not always, as you do need senior FOs to run flight operations properly (for example, who's going to fly with the junior Captains if all FOs are cadets?). But every now and again there are such episodes, especially with airlines who have a vested interest in selling their candidates certain type rating courses.

Ok,

I’m a captain in a LCC and in the UK we had a huge redundancy program recently, that was mitigated by the vast majority of pilots going part time. 2000 pilots working 50%. How long before we’re all offered full time positions again? Only then will we start recruiting....how long will that be? well I wouldn’t be asking a salesmen selling their wares.

Stay clear!

Historically, global crisis have hit the pilot community hard. I remember the first gulf war, AirEurope going bust and the end of several smaller uk airlines. Then, you went on the dole, spent toms of savings keeping current , and waited , in some cases, several years for the pilot job market to pick up.

Now , there are relatively few layoffs in the UK. Pilots are grounded, on decent salaries without much hardship. Companies are even keeping licences current for those affected, at no cost to the employee. Life is good . Even BA cannot go bust these days, which always happened previously.

‘Even BA cannot go bust these days, which always happened’

Que?!

a lot of negative people up here : )

Relatively yes, but it's still several hundred laid off - as in gone- from BA alone, plus several hundred others their pushed into a holding pool of sorts (CRS), and that's just from version 1.0 of the survival plan..

Like Adrian I am however perplexed by your comment that:

Don’t stop after your first sentence. Let us know why the contributors have got it wrong.

It is probably correct to say that a clearer picture (revised positively?) will emerge in Q2 2021 once the C-19 vaccines have hopefully been effective.

Agreed. Some sort of draft timeline for the time being could be:

Now - hit the theoretical knowledge books, with the view of passing the PPL ground exams by the end of Q2 2021. Closer to that time, we'll have a somewhat better idea of whether we have any realistic chance of beating the dreaded lurgy sometime soon. If things start getting somewhat better than dire, get your medical at some point and do the practical (i.e. flying) part of the PPL next summer.

Q4 2021 - revise once again where we stand and have some thoughts about how to continue. If you're still set on doing it, find some cheap C150 and slowly start your hour building. I would say that 5-7 hours per month split into 2-3 flying days should be fine. This way, you won't be putting huge amounts of money into something fairly uncertain and you'll still be current and skilled. At some point during the winter, get your night rating maybe.

Mid-2022 - if it all looks on track to normal life, book your ATPL ground school. No need to book any exams until well into 2023. Whenever you do, leave out the Communications papers last. They are dead easy and can be left as a final session to protract your time line for IR if need be.

Late 2023/early 2024 - consider finalising the exams and the SEP IR/CPL.

Whenever jobs become available in considerable numbers - MEP, ME IR, MCC, JOC.

Conservative? For sure. But that's the safe bet as things stand now.

Balpa or CAE

Who is Right?BALPA or CAE?

Serious question? Answer is we'll find out eventually but at the moment nobody knows...

If I went down to the bookies, I would put £10 on BALPA being closer to the truth.

Disclosure: I am a BALPA member. I did my IRT with OATS four decades ago, as a ‘self improver’ on the 700 hour route under CAP54

Whilst I agree that face to face can never be beaten (I am currently meeting my clients over the phone and Zoom/Skype) we cannot guess that all will return. Not least because, after a major upset - it never does.

Firstly a simple example from another industry: In 1991 I was working in the telecomms consulting world (started in 1977) and had done my fair share of biz travel. The daily rate being paid for contracts collapsed as the recession took hold. It took ten years for the daily rate to get back to what it was - meanwhile inflation had continued.

Secondly: It is not possible to compare the fall out of Covid19 with any previous recession. 2008 had a specific starting point and that was clearly understood. Covid started with, and continues to have, many unknowns. A recession caused by financial means alone is a familiar pattern, I have lived and worked through four of them. But a recession caused by a pandemic is unknown in living memory. Further, the financial skyline had not seen any significant reform after 2008, so all the instabilities of 2008 mostly remain. Then add Covid19 ...

My guess is that the glory days of flying will take a long time to return. If there are fewer Biz pax then prices for leisure will rise and that will flatten demand also amongst main line carriers. Guess by all means - but nobody knows how this will turn out.

If I had my time again, I would not chose aviation.
I would be a vet or architect.
But then I would not have met my lovely wife 54 years ago!

Just for the avoidance of doubt - despite the wording of my response to Markos I have no doubt that BALPA are being much much more realistic than CAE

(Disclaimer: I'm also a BALPA member who has witnessed the carnage, including redundancies, this has caused at a major airline).

Last proper pilot shortage was 1987.
a marmoset with a cpl would have got a DEC then

no, that’s not true at all, said monkey would have required an ATPL for a DEC

Or a SCPL if the MTOW did not exceed 20MT.
900 hours as oppose to 1500 hours experience necessary.
Last issue date by UK CAA 3 December 1989. Valid for 5 years.

I always thought the "imminent pilot shortage" doomsday-predictions-that-never-really-materialize were pretty much orchestrated by manufacturers and airlines alike to have access to cheap labour.
I still think the same. BUT:

Since we can pretty much discount there WILL at least be 1 efficient vaccine, let's go with the 2024 "return to 2019 levels" scenario in terms of worldwide pax numbers. I believe markets such as european and US domestic short-haul will recover quicker though (summer 2022) despite not overly favorable macro conditions. Capacity will be there perhaps revenue will take a bit longer. Everyone wants to gain market share.

If most of the VLAs A380s, B747s and some of the older B777s etc. are decommissioned, it means to match the number of travelers you need roughly double the airframes (B787/A321XLR etc) or at least 1.5 the airplanes.

Assuming that is true that there was a relative shortage of EXPERIENCED flight deck crew in 2019, that means unless they all of the sudden go single pilot there will necessarily be an experienced airline pilot shortage between 2022 and 2023. Remember that it takes years to reach the necessary experience to become a Commander even a senior first officer and particularly when people are flying once a month these days they are not really accumulating experience. Also remember that people keep retiring (confinement does not stop aging) and fresh cadets out of school are not building meaningful hours.

Unfortunately, in Europe, I'm afraid most pilots will not manage to find alternative and successful careers outside aviation unless they had a previous education and experience and will pretty much be forced to return to flying.

That's how I see it.

While it's certainly true that recruitment for European, USA or whatever regional short-haul will start first, I see it as a case of mass exodus of long-haul pilots towards short-haul for the sake of returning to flying. In a situation where jobs are few and far between, a firm A320 job right now is way, way better than the possibility of an A350 job in another 1-2 years (spent doing what?). Hence, the true shortage of pilots with relevant experience will only start when long-haul picks up.

We now exactly the situation, and it's useless to add anything else.
Just a little consideration:
When the market picks up again, (maybe a day with a vaccine, with less restrictions / quarantines / lockdowns), the demand will require, of necessity, airplanes and crews.
How can an airline recover without flying ?
This will be gradually of course.
The today's leading low-cost companies are trying to conquer the globe, by expanding, even with empty planes, as an investment for the future, opening new bases and routes.
This strategy is definitely based on recovering earlier and better than the competitors, but in order to actualize it, again, pilots will be needed; so I assume we would not need to wait the "peak" again.
I'm absolutely not saying that there will be a shortage soon, but of course at least a gradual redistribution sooner than 2024, I guess.

Not a good time to learn to fly except for recreation. The market will return but it will take time. There is a green agenda at the heart of government. The airlines are the sacrificial lambs for this. The Ryanair / easy travel explosion in Europe has meant that access to the desirable hot spots in Europe is available to all and not just the apparent elite. The weak and ineffectual Boris is influenced by his girlfriend who has climate change at the top of the pile post covid. The airlines and air travel are the targets for all sorts of unscientific reasons. The lack of support and the continued empty airports back this up. Consequently and unfortunately it is unlikely that there will be normal pilot opportunities for some time. However despite the gloomy predictions I do believe that air travel will return at some point in the future to relative normality. There is certainly no foreseeable pilot shortage.

Valid point , well spotted !