How quickly is the job situation improving?
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How quickly is the job situation improving?
I'm about to start integrated training at the end of this week but am still very edgy about the potential employment prospects at the end of my 15 months.
I know there has been a sense that somehow things are improving but what I'd really like to know is how fast and by how much? To illustrate how this could be quantified lets take the example of a medicine or law student. As long as they don't make a balls of things on the course they can take comfort of the fact that with a solid 2/1 and average interpersonal skills they can be 80% certain of gaining employment in their chosen profession within say 6 months of Graduation.
It seems to me that over the past 24 months an ATPL Graduate from a well regarded JAR school with solid passes and average personality had about a 10% chance of gaining a paid flying job within 6 months (or put another way 1 in every 10 Grads got a job). What I'd like to know now is if that percentage has risen to say 30% in recent weeks and thus could be expected if the present trend continues to reach say 50% in a years time.
Like any good gambler I like a clear picture of the odds before I bet!
Interested in views,
Desk-pilot
I know there has been a sense that somehow things are improving but what I'd really like to know is how fast and by how much? To illustrate how this could be quantified lets take the example of a medicine or law student. As long as they don't make a balls of things on the course they can take comfort of the fact that with a solid 2/1 and average interpersonal skills they can be 80% certain of gaining employment in their chosen profession within say 6 months of Graduation.
It seems to me that over the past 24 months an ATPL Graduate from a well regarded JAR school with solid passes and average personality had about a 10% chance of gaining a paid flying job within 6 months (or put another way 1 in every 10 Grads got a job). What I'd like to know now is if that percentage has risen to say 30% in recent weeks and thus could be expected if the present trend continues to reach say 50% in a years time.
Like any good gambler I like a clear picture of the odds before I bet!
Interested in views,
Desk-pilot
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One way to look at it is to plan for the worst and hope for the best.
Worst case scenario: During your training period a major airline in the UK goes bankrupt, floods the market with 400-600 type rated and experienced pilots. Low cost carriers happy to pick up aircrew to keep their expansion plans on track. Hiring market flat as pancake for up to 24 months after. If bank balance allows, get an instructors rating and fly at the weekends while getting some contract work as IT bod/truck driver/security guard/ Tesco's shelf stacker. Keeps the wolf from the door and you stay flying. As time goes on people retire, airlines expand you get a job within 2-3 years of qualifying.
Best case scenario: During your training period no major airlines go bust and low cost carriers continue to expand but at a slower rate due to the lack of aircrew. Airlines desprate for anyone who has some sort of experience flying anything over 5700kg and more than one engine, so the smaller regionals loose people hand over fist opening up seats in tuboprops and regional jet jobs. Regional operators contact your training provider and ask for list of likely suspects. You are offered a job before you finish training.
May not turn out anything like that but maybe something in between. Who knows what the next international crisis will be that knocks aviation on its arse again? It is a gamble, and a lot of money to throw at a dream, but as they say in the lottery ads, you got to be in it to win it. It is easy to get despondant, but hang on to the dream, force yourself to be optimistic. There is hiring happening, even for low time guys right now, so if nothing bad happens between now and Christmas we may see a bit of a hiring boomette soon.
Worst case scenario: During your training period a major airline in the UK goes bankrupt, floods the market with 400-600 type rated and experienced pilots. Low cost carriers happy to pick up aircrew to keep their expansion plans on track. Hiring market flat as pancake for up to 24 months after. If bank balance allows, get an instructors rating and fly at the weekends while getting some contract work as IT bod/truck driver/security guard/ Tesco's shelf stacker. Keeps the wolf from the door and you stay flying. As time goes on people retire, airlines expand you get a job within 2-3 years of qualifying.
Best case scenario: During your training period no major airlines go bust and low cost carriers continue to expand but at a slower rate due to the lack of aircrew. Airlines desprate for anyone who has some sort of experience flying anything over 5700kg and more than one engine, so the smaller regionals loose people hand over fist opening up seats in tuboprops and regional jet jobs. Regional operators contact your training provider and ask for list of likely suspects. You are offered a job before you finish training.
May not turn out anything like that but maybe something in between. Who knows what the next international crisis will be that knocks aviation on its arse again? It is a gamble, and a lot of money to throw at a dream, but as they say in the lottery ads, you got to be in it to win it. It is easy to get despondant, but hang on to the dream, force yourself to be optimistic. There is hiring happening, even for low time guys right now, so if nothing bad happens between now and Christmas we may see a bit of a hiring boomette soon.
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Desk-pilot
I think you are trying to compare apples and oranges. Let's look at law and medicine. They are similar in that whatever happens in world events 'clients' will continue to use their services (bar all out war when the demand for lawers might abate a bit in favour of doctors for a while!)
Aviation is completely different in that our 'clients' are far more affected by world and local events and air travel is still seen as a luxury item when it comes to having to pay the bills a the end of the month. Even some businesses cut back the air travel in a downturn, proving that it isn't always even a business necessity to travel by air. This leads to our industry mirroring the economy with it's booms and busts with other factors creating additional uncertainty such as the events of 9/11.
So it comes down to how much you want to do it, because there are no guarantees when you try to look a couple of years down the line, only predictions and projections. My feelings are that the long term demand for air travel is increasing, hence the government having to look at extra runway capacity for the next 20-30 years. The short term is a little bleaker, mainly due to the 'backlog' of pilot applicants since the 9/11 downturn in the industry. Jobs are still around, low hours guys and type rated alike are still getting employed and many airlines who have held off on the recruitment front to weather the storm are now flying about with a large deficit of pilots. It's getting to the point where these airlines cannot 'not' recruit, they've cut to the bone and operated below the required number but eventually this becomes uneconomical as the number of sub-charters goes up.
I really think this is no worse time to start training than it was 2 years before 9/11 (as these poor souls qualified just after 9/11), in fact I would say it is better now, but, that can all change in the blink of an eye.........................
If you really want to do it, fly. If you want certainty go back to college and get a good medical or law degree. Just be aware of the hurdles you will face and show a determination to succeed that will carry through to a right seat position..................
Good luck.
PP
I think you are trying to compare apples and oranges. Let's look at law and medicine. They are similar in that whatever happens in world events 'clients' will continue to use their services (bar all out war when the demand for lawers might abate a bit in favour of doctors for a while!)
Aviation is completely different in that our 'clients' are far more affected by world and local events and air travel is still seen as a luxury item when it comes to having to pay the bills a the end of the month. Even some businesses cut back the air travel in a downturn, proving that it isn't always even a business necessity to travel by air. This leads to our industry mirroring the economy with it's booms and busts with other factors creating additional uncertainty such as the events of 9/11.
So it comes down to how much you want to do it, because there are no guarantees when you try to look a couple of years down the line, only predictions and projections. My feelings are that the long term demand for air travel is increasing, hence the government having to look at extra runway capacity for the next 20-30 years. The short term is a little bleaker, mainly due to the 'backlog' of pilot applicants since the 9/11 downturn in the industry. Jobs are still around, low hours guys and type rated alike are still getting employed and many airlines who have held off on the recruitment front to weather the storm are now flying about with a large deficit of pilots. It's getting to the point where these airlines cannot 'not' recruit, they've cut to the bone and operated below the required number but eventually this becomes uneconomical as the number of sub-charters goes up.
I really think this is no worse time to start training than it was 2 years before 9/11 (as these poor souls qualified just after 9/11), in fact I would say it is better now, but, that can all change in the blink of an eye.........................
If you really want to do it, fly. If you want certainty go back to college and get a good medical or law degree. Just be aware of the hurdles you will face and show a determination to succeed that will carry through to a right seat position..................
Good luck.
PP
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Good advice PP, any wannabe would do well to listen up.
Things seem to be picking up as I know of a few low hour guys that have recently been employed (all modular guys actually, not that it had anything to do with getting hired).
However, same old story...... Once you have the blue book; it's not what... but who... and if the who bit isn't sorted by the time you finish your training, well then, you may be waiting a little while.
Things seem to be picking up as I know of a few low hour guys that have recently been employed (all modular guys actually, not that it had anything to do with getting hired).
However, same old story...... Once you have the blue book; it's not what... but who... and if the who bit isn't sorted by the time you finish your training, well then, you may be waiting a little while.
Last edited by MorningGlory; 24th Jul 2003 at 00:28.
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Desk pilot,
Pilot Pete has as ever hit the nail on the head. Since 9/11 and SARS, the only definate thing is how volatile the industry currently is. Everyone has differing thoughts as to how the next couple of years will pan out. Problem is no-body is letting on who has the magic glass ball.
The key is what you want. If you have the drive and determination to achieve come what may then will you be happy sitting back with the "I could have..." brigade?
Secondly, any money used for flying training is in effect disposeable without a definate job at the end. Only you know if you can afford not to see it again if it all goes to pot.
All anyone else can give is a best guess. In the short term, the jobs market does seem to have picked up ever so slightly, but what is going to happen tomorrow? Next week or next year?
Pilot Pete has as ever hit the nail on the head. Since 9/11 and SARS, the only definate thing is how volatile the industry currently is. Everyone has differing thoughts as to how the next couple of years will pan out. Problem is no-body is letting on who has the magic glass ball.
The key is what you want. If you have the drive and determination to achieve come what may then will you be happy sitting back with the "I could have..." brigade?
Secondly, any money used for flying training is in effect disposeable without a definate job at the end. Only you know if you can afford not to see it again if it all goes to pot.
All anyone else can give is a best guess. In the short term, the jobs market does seem to have picked up ever so slightly, but what is going to happen tomorrow? Next week or next year?
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Thanks guys
Thanks guys for airing your views. At the end of the day I can't really afford to lose £60k, in fact with loss of earnings for 18 months lets make that £120k, but on the other hand I don't suppose many of us can. That's a big financial penalty for most people. My parents don't have the money to bail me out so I would just have to sell my house or go back to IT if the worst happened.
Flying is what I've wanted to do since I was 5 years old and with every passing year in an office I was increasingly unhappy. I believe I was born to be an airline pilot, not a paper shuffler and beaurocrat!
Masochist that I am I'm also looking forward to starting the course! Lets hope things improve for all our sakes.
Desk-pilot
Flying is what I've wanted to do since I was 5 years old and with every passing year in an office I was increasingly unhappy. I believe I was born to be an airline pilot, not a paper shuffler and beaurocrat!
Masochist that I am I'm also looking forward to starting the course! Lets hope things improve for all our sakes.
Desk-pilot
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Just to add,
all the guys I trained with during 1997/1998 who I am still in touch with have got jobs. Some took longer than others, but eventually they made it too. The veriety of flying jobs that they got was immense. A couple got big jets straight out of training......we'd all applied to all the jobs! They struck lucky. One went to Brits, one to Aer Lingus, Debonair (now Virgin Atlantic!), and one got JMC after CTC selection. Others got turbo-prop jobs with BWA (now Go/Easy), Aurigny, British Midland Commuter. Only two I know of went instructing, one who ended up at Welshpool and then OATS and me who completed the course but went to do air taxi after making the contact. Those who found it impossible to get a job (just bad luck as they were doing all the right things) took over a year of looking before one went to Africa to fly Cessna Caravans (he's now unfrozen his ATPL and is back in the UK job search market), another who took the same route and flew them in Africa and the UK and has just started with Brits and one of my best pals who had a particularly tough time but went 'blip driving' at LATCC whilst para-dropping at his own expense to get more hours, eventually I managed to help him get an air taxi job at the outfit I was with. He went from there to BACE and starts with Easyjet next month.
So there you have it. There are no guarantees, but with the determination to succeed you WILL make it if you make all the right moves and go the extra mile to keep the hours ticking over. Like I have said, there have been better times to be looking for a job, but I don't think this is too bad a time to be contemplating starting training.
I would suggest you make an effort to stay in touch with everyone you meet during your training (apart from the complete idiots who you will come accross!) as contacts are everything. You never know where one or two of them may end up, especially in the smaller stuff like the air taxi where even the newest pilot is listened to for suggestions of suitable applicants. Even if you can just get inside info on who is actively recruiting etc it makes the contact worthwhile. So start networking the day of your first trial lesson and take a note of names and info.
Good luck
PP
all the guys I trained with during 1997/1998 who I am still in touch with have got jobs. Some took longer than others, but eventually they made it too. The veriety of flying jobs that they got was immense. A couple got big jets straight out of training......we'd all applied to all the jobs! They struck lucky. One went to Brits, one to Aer Lingus, Debonair (now Virgin Atlantic!), and one got JMC after CTC selection. Others got turbo-prop jobs with BWA (now Go/Easy), Aurigny, British Midland Commuter. Only two I know of went instructing, one who ended up at Welshpool and then OATS and me who completed the course but went to do air taxi after making the contact. Those who found it impossible to get a job (just bad luck as they were doing all the right things) took over a year of looking before one went to Africa to fly Cessna Caravans (he's now unfrozen his ATPL and is back in the UK job search market), another who took the same route and flew them in Africa and the UK and has just started with Brits and one of my best pals who had a particularly tough time but went 'blip driving' at LATCC whilst para-dropping at his own expense to get more hours, eventually I managed to help him get an air taxi job at the outfit I was with. He went from there to BACE and starts with Easyjet next month.
So there you have it. There are no guarantees, but with the determination to succeed you WILL make it if you make all the right moves and go the extra mile to keep the hours ticking over. Like I have said, there have been better times to be looking for a job, but I don't think this is too bad a time to be contemplating starting training.
I would suggest you make an effort to stay in touch with everyone you meet during your training (apart from the complete idiots who you will come accross!) as contacts are everything. You never know where one or two of them may end up, especially in the smaller stuff like the air taxi where even the newest pilot is listened to for suggestions of suitable applicants. Even if you can just get inside info on who is actively recruiting etc it makes the contact worthwhile. So start networking the day of your first trial lesson and take a note of names and info.
Good luck
PP
Last edited by Pilot Pete; 25th Jul 2003 at 12:36.
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Things are real slow here in the States. Since this is not my first ever down turn, I not in the panic mode as some. Why don't you work some more in your present field, and put more money away for your pilot education? This way you have less debt at the other end to serve. Your first couple of jobs are not going to pay very well. So having to serve less debt is a clear advantage.
