Telegraph article (uk)
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Telegraph article (uk)
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Why your holidays are about to get more expensive
Pilots are getting older, retiring earlier and there are notenough young recruits – meaning a shortage that will cost you
By Sophie Dickinson
6 March 2023 • 12:00pm
With fuel costs, environmental taxes and inflation on themarch, and the economic impact of the pandemic stillbeing felt, airfares are already spiralling. In January, TheTelegraph reported thataverage ticket prices had soared by44.1 per cent– the sharpest rise since records began. Butanother, less reported problem is threatening to makeholidays even more expensive in the coming years.
A report from the aviation consultancy OAG has revealedthat significant pilot shortages are likely to hamper theindustry over the next decade, with attempts to mitigatethe issue looking certain to further push up fares.
What is causing the crisis? Put simply, pilots are gettingolder, retiring earlier, and not enough young recruits arecoming through the ranks. Today, more than 60 per cent ofairline pilots around the world are over the age of 40, withthe prospect of hanging up their stripes on the horizon. Bycontrast, only around 10 per cent are between the ages of20 and 30.
Exacerbating the problem is the industry’s typicalrecruiting strategy. Airlines, with their extremely tightprofit margins, can’t afford to employ a large stable ofpilots. They keep a bare minimum on their books, leavingthem susceptible to external factors.
Rapid growth
John Grant, the Executive Vice President of OAG, believesthere are many reasons why the shortage is emerging now.“It’s partly driven by the pandemic and people of a certainage – as they are in many other professions – saying theydon’t want to go back to work,” he says. “We’re also seeinga rapid growth in aviation demand around the world, withairlines literally unable to recruit fast enough.”
He estimated that there will be a worldwide shortage ofaround 55,000 pilots within the next 10 years. Airlinesappear spooked, and many have fast-tracked new measuresto attract a younger workforce, including the introductionof new pilot training funds and facilities.
Emirates, for example, has invested in new state-of-the-artsimulators and increased its training capacity by 50 percent. Significant investments such as this costs money, ofcourse, with passengers, one way or another, in line to pickup the tab.
Short-term solutions
Southwest Airlines has gone further, with aspiring pilotsnow needing just 500 hours of flying time on jets orturboprop aircraft to sign up, down from 1,000.
“This is clearly designed as a short-term solution,” saysGrant, referring to the Southwest changes. “It’s importantto recognise that those pilots are not going to be let looseon an aircraft without completing all of the necessarytraining, the hours in the simulator and everything elsethat’s necessary before they go online – there won’t be adanger to passengers. But there may be a situation whereSouthwest’s pilots are training new recruits, and they maynot be able to operate a full flying schedule while they’redoing that.”
The burden, then, may not just be financial: customerscould notice a reduced schedule, too. After years of aviationchaos, it seems like another hurdle is emerging for thoseattempting to travel by air.
Retention is evidently a key issue for the industry.“Recruitment is extremely expensive, with the cost oftraining a new pilot many thousands of pounds,” saysGrant. “So the last thing you want to do is have a revolving-door culture.”
High earnings
As such, there has been a raft of salary increases. Deltapilots recently negotiated a 30 per cent pay rise over thenext four years. Hawaiian Airlines has approved a 33 percent increase.
The average pilot salary in the UK is currently around£54,000, rising to around £150,000 for the top earners –but these figures are expected to increase, and the impactwill be felt on ticket prices. “There’s a lot of leverage forimproving terms and conditions right now,” says JohnGrant. “It’s a very good time to be a pilot.”
The exact amount added to ticket prices will likely dependon negotiations between pilots and airlines in the comingyears. When spread across the entire schedule, it will likelyappear small – but John Grant thinks consumers shouldn’tignore it. “When you add up all these little incrementalincreases, families who are going on holiday will really feelthe difference. Perhaps it’s only £30 per person, butmultiply that by four and you’ve got a significant pricechange.”
One thing is clear: the age of the ultra-low-cost flight isover. Gone are the £7 jaunts to Malaga. Even Ryanair bossMichael O’Leary, though predicting that customers wouldcut back on other luxuries before holidays, recentlydeclared the end of extremely cheap airfares. Aviation’spilot crisis is just another nail in the coffin.
Why your holidays are about to get more expensive
Pilots are getting older, retiring earlier and there are notenough young recruits – meaning a shortage that will cost you
By Sophie Dickinson
6 March 2023 • 12:00pm
With fuel costs, environmental taxes and inflation on themarch, and the economic impact of the pandemic stillbeing felt, airfares are already spiralling. In January, TheTelegraph reported thataverage ticket prices had soared by44.1 per cent– the sharpest rise since records began. Butanother, less reported problem is threatening to makeholidays even more expensive in the coming years.
A report from the aviation consultancy OAG has revealedthat significant pilot shortages are likely to hamper theindustry over the next decade, with attempts to mitigatethe issue looking certain to further push up fares.
What is causing the crisis? Put simply, pilots are gettingolder, retiring earlier, and not enough young recruits arecoming through the ranks. Today, more than 60 per cent ofairline pilots around the world are over the age of 40, withthe prospect of hanging up their stripes on the horizon. Bycontrast, only around 10 per cent are between the ages of20 and 30.
Exacerbating the problem is the industry’s typicalrecruiting strategy. Airlines, with their extremely tightprofit margins, can’t afford to employ a large stable ofpilots. They keep a bare minimum on their books, leavingthem susceptible to external factors.
Rapid growth
John Grant, the Executive Vice President of OAG, believesthere are many reasons why the shortage is emerging now.“It’s partly driven by the pandemic and people of a certainage – as they are in many other professions – saying theydon’t want to go back to work,” he says. “We’re also seeinga rapid growth in aviation demand around the world, withairlines literally unable to recruit fast enough.”
He estimated that there will be a worldwide shortage ofaround 55,000 pilots within the next 10 years. Airlinesappear spooked, and many have fast-tracked new measuresto attract a younger workforce, including the introductionof new pilot training funds and facilities.
Emirates, for example, has invested in new state-of-the-artsimulators and increased its training capacity by 50 percent. Significant investments such as this costs money, ofcourse, with passengers, one way or another, in line to pickup the tab.
Short-term solutions
Southwest Airlines has gone further, with aspiring pilotsnow needing just 500 hours of flying time on jets orturboprop aircraft to sign up, down from 1,000.
“This is clearly designed as a short-term solution,” saysGrant, referring to the Southwest changes. “It’s importantto recognise that those pilots are not going to be let looseon an aircraft without completing all of the necessarytraining, the hours in the simulator and everything elsethat’s necessary before they go online – there won’t be adanger to passengers. But there may be a situation whereSouthwest’s pilots are training new recruits, and they maynot be able to operate a full flying schedule while they’redoing that.”
The burden, then, may not just be financial: customerscould notice a reduced schedule, too. After years of aviationchaos, it seems like another hurdle is emerging for thoseattempting to travel by air.
Retention is evidently a key issue for the industry.“Recruitment is extremely expensive, with the cost oftraining a new pilot many thousands of pounds,” saysGrant. “So the last thing you want to do is have a revolving-door culture.”
High earnings
As such, there has been a raft of salary increases. Deltapilots recently negotiated a 30 per cent pay rise over thenext four years. Hawaiian Airlines has approved a 33 percent increase.
The average pilot salary in the UK is currently around£54,000, rising to around £150,000 for the top earners –but these figures are expected to increase, and the impactwill be felt on ticket prices. “There’s a lot of leverage forimproving terms and conditions right now,” says JohnGrant. “It’s a very good time to be a pilot.”
The exact amount added to ticket prices will likely dependon negotiations between pilots and airlines in the comingyears. When spread across the entire schedule, it will likelyappear small – but John Grant thinks consumers shouldn’tignore it. “When you add up all these little incrementalincreases, families who are going on holiday will really feelthe difference. Perhaps it’s only £30 per person, butmultiply that by four and you’ve got a significant pricechange.”
One thing is clear: the age of the ultra-low-cost flight isover. Gone are the £7 jaunts to Malaga. Even Ryanair bossMichael O’Leary, though predicting that customers wouldcut back on other luxuries before holidays, recentlydeclared the end of extremely cheap airfares. Aviation’spilot crisis is just another nail in the coffin.
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There is no shortage of pilots. On the contrary, there is a great offer of pilots and the airlines are still very picky. They select their candidates based on their criteria, e.g. age, nationality, sex (to be politically correct), connections, appearance, experience and others. If the global market fully opens and experienced pilots move to non-European eastern countries for better wages, then it is likely that more positions will open. Until then, we have to wait and invest in our selves.
Last edited by John_Mclane; 10th Mar 2023 at 16:14.
After that if you’ve got £30K you just go and work for Ryanair, apply to Wizz etc.
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I'm sorry VariablePitchP but you're either delusional or living in a parallel reality.
It's pretty easy to talk out of your high horse, specially if you're already employed.
For freshly minted pilots without any experience, the options are ridiculously small, and you still have to compete with thousands and be picked out among those.
And even out of those options, most require you to indebt yourself even further, or pay a wage so bad you are unable to pay your debts to the bank.
Sorry but it's been grand watching your replies to various threads, one of mine included, and all the pilots I know IRL, even those employed, know that the last few years has been economical suicide to get a license, and that companies are just sucking on the governments's tit for their equity due to covid. Only Ryanair managed without assistance.
Maybe in 6 months to a year, real tangible opportunities will show up for fresh out of flight school pilots. Today?
Realistically, you got Ryanair that asks you to pay 30K (36K-39K, considering I've done their assessments, and had people from my flight school try without their APS MCC and they all say the same, priority to their product, the rest after if you still have spots) AND STILL HAVE TO PASS THEIR ASSESSMENTS, or Wizzair that asks you to pay 15K and offers you a wage that is lower than minimum wage in several european countries, AND STILL HAVE TO PASS THEIR ASSESSMENTS. I'm fine with having to pass them, but luck out and have 2 or 3 guys in your group that have jet hours, and guess who they're gonna pick? It's definitely not gonna be that dude with 200 hours on prop airplanes.
Go figure.
It's pretty easy to talk out of your high horse, specially if you're already employed.
For freshly minted pilots without any experience, the options are ridiculously small, and you still have to compete with thousands and be picked out among those.
And even out of those options, most require you to indebt yourself even further, or pay a wage so bad you are unable to pay your debts to the bank.
Sorry but it's been grand watching your replies to various threads, one of mine included, and all the pilots I know IRL, even those employed, know that the last few years has been economical suicide to get a license, and that companies are just sucking on the governments's tit for their equity due to covid. Only Ryanair managed without assistance.
Maybe in 6 months to a year, real tangible opportunities will show up for fresh out of flight school pilots. Today?
Realistically, you got Ryanair that asks you to pay 30K (36K-39K, considering I've done their assessments, and had people from my flight school try without their APS MCC and they all say the same, priority to their product, the rest after if you still have spots) AND STILL HAVE TO PASS THEIR ASSESSMENTS, or Wizzair that asks you to pay 15K and offers you a wage that is lower than minimum wage in several european countries, AND STILL HAVE TO PASS THEIR ASSESSMENTS. I'm fine with having to pass them, but luck out and have 2 or 3 guys in your group that have jet hours, and guess who they're gonna pick? It's definitely not gonna be that dude with 200 hours on prop airplanes.
Go figure.
