Realistic job prospects
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This is copied from Terms and Endearment and worth a read if you haven't already.
https://www.eurocontrol.int/publicat...date-2021-2024
https://www.eurocontrol.int/publicat...date-2021-2024
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TBH, I think that the industry will recover more rapidly than many people expect. The airline I am working for (Europe) is now really flying a lot (ofc, its summer season). During winter, I and 30% of crew was on unpaid leave. Now we are flying 80+h a month. Winter will be probably hard again but i expect, starting next summer the situation will be on the good way.
In terms of holidays summer will recover very quickly. The demand is definitely there and summer generally corresponds with a decreased incidence of Covid and other Coryzal type illnesses.
What is a complete unknown is the winter ski season. This winter will be a big test, by then we should have a vaccinated population and vaccine passports. In theory this should allow the winter season to go ahead. If it doesn't airlines will hurt, as well all the ski resorts who realistically can't afford another winter of no revenue.
...and I really really want to go skiing!
What is a complete unknown is the winter ski season. This winter will be a big test, by then we should have a vaccinated population and vaccine passports. In theory this should allow the winter season to go ahead. If it doesn't airlines will hurt, as well all the ski resorts who realistically can't afford another winter of no revenue.
...and I really really want to go skiing!
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This on its own is a weak incentive. Some people would simply not want all the hassle of the "new normal", such as PCR tests, quarantine or whatever. Me included. So I wouldn't count on winter season to be good aviation wise. I might drive to ski locally though (again).
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My evidence is more anecdotal than numerical, but experience from previous aviation downturns shows that the last few percent are always the hardest ones to recover. Probably that's the fraction of trips for which people ask themselves "Is it strictly necessary?" the most. From memory, 9/11 resulted in something like a 20% drop in traffic. The GFC was more like 8-10%. Both took a few years until traffic values reached and exceeded pre-crisis levels.
With COVID, peak reduction values were in excess of 90%, with something like -45% in Europe right now, when we're finally starting to see some considerable improvement. So, if the recovery pace more or less mirrors the previous "big things" which hit aviation, it would probably be reasonable to expect traffic volumes staying at 80-90% of pre-COVID for a few years once the acute phase is behind us. Who knows, maybe that was what the forecasters assumed as well.
With COVID, peak reduction values were in excess of 90%, with something like -45% in Europe right now, when we're finally starting to see some considerable improvement. So, if the recovery pace more or less mirrors the previous "big things" which hit aviation, it would probably be reasonable to expect traffic volumes staying at 80-90% of pre-COVID for a few years once the acute phase is behind us. Who knows, maybe that was what the forecasters assumed as well.
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I’ll give you some facts:
When the pandemic started, numerous people were saying “This is as fantastic time to start training! In 18 months it’ll be back to normal.” That didn’t age well. I know someone who got made redundant only last week from an LCC job in Europe where he thought he was safe. The removal of the JRS may cause more casualties even now.
Business travel will undoubtedly suffer, people are travelling less and given the pressures the environmentalists are mounting it may well become ever increasingly expensive to fly. ‘Stay-cations’ are really catching on. Yes of course people want to get away, but remember we are comparing this to the bumper 2019 year, things may not return to that level of flying for several years.
The cost of flight training has steadily gone up and up. I spoke to a Cpt recently, and his training (back in’t day) set him back ~£50k integrated, his first airline job paid him about the same. Now you could be facing a bill of ~£130k with a starting salary of ~£30k. Add that to the insane cost of housing and you've got a pretty crap life-style. Seasonal positions are more common, it suits the airlines much more than it’ll suit you.
Ignore everything you hear about ‘pilot shortage’. This is a myth pedalled by the big flight schools to keep a steady stream of naive 19 yr olds with £100k spare walking through the door. Why does going modular cost £50k but integrated cost £100k? I’ll give you a clue, it’s their bottom line.
Airbus are going to seriously start looking at single pilot operations soon. Shortage or not, they can make the system safer and half the flight crew costs for any airline. Who wouldn’t want to buy into that? I’m surprised we still even have pilots tbh, Tesla will nail self-driving cars shortly and I doubt it’ll be too long before airlines turn into something resembling the DLR in London. We’re expensive and make mistakes.
If you wanted to be a pilot for your ‘passion of flying’ then you should look elsewhere, you don’t ‘fly’ an airliner, you manage it’s systems. You observe while the autopilot flies it for you. You don’t even get to make any decisions, ATC tell you where to go, The company tell you what to do you just comply blindly and recite SOPs to the point your brain isn’t paying attention but your mouth is moving. It is the ultimate zombie job. It’s really boring.
I asked a few flight crew what their favourite thing about the job was before I took the plunge, and they all said the same thing; “I’m well paid and I get lots of time off”.
That should have been a warning sign for me, best thing about the job, money. Second best thing about the job, the fact that you don’t have to do the job very often. One of the best things about being a pilot, is you don’t have to go to work very often. Just think about that for a moment. I wish I had.
I’ve worked in small companies and big companies prior to this ‘career’, and I can tell you all those people that say “you’re just a number in an airline” are absolutely correct. More often than not crewing couldn’t give a rats arse if something incredibly important has come up, or that they are going to make you wait 6 hours for a taxi rather than rebook it. You are a commodity, and an annoying one that answers back and goes sick.
The current job market is flooded with experienced crew, for those of you graduating now you are in for a very painful few years while when airlines do eventually start re-hiring, you’ll be last to be picked. If you are in ground school then you are very lucky. See this as a gift, an opportunity from god to jump ship before it goes down. Yes it will have cost you £5k but that’s not too bad.
Also don’t forget some crew flying today have been made redundant several times already. Airlines rely on public disposable income to operate. And in a recession it is the first thing to go. Financial crisis and 9/11 are proof of this. In 10 years we’ll be hit with another recession and this all starts again. It is a VERY cyclical industry. Want to risk your job, house, lifestyle, kids school fees etc on a job that yo-yos every 10 years? Think you’re safe when you get a command? Well no because you’ll have lost all your seniority all over again.
SARS was recent history, what’s stopping this happening again in another 10/20 years? Countries will be FAR quicker to act in future, international travel will be the first thing to be stopped in fear of another Covid pandemic.
One final note, flying gives you zero transferable skills, people will say otherwise that we are amazing leaders, team-players etc etc, but ask yourself why all the redundant pilots either work as delivery drivers or shelf stackers? Once you leave aviation, either through choice or redundancy you are essentially zero qualified to do anything other than fly. A lot of people go into flying after A-levels, and 10 years down the line
a brick because they soon realise how poor their prospects in the big wide world are. The future is computers, AI, big-data, tech, sustainability, renewables. Go and start a career in something that will give you a fulfilling job for the next 40 years. Because this aint it.
When the pandemic started, numerous people were saying “This is as fantastic time to start training! In 18 months it’ll be back to normal.” That didn’t age well. I know someone who got made redundant only last week from an LCC job in Europe where he thought he was safe. The removal of the JRS may cause more casualties even now.
Business travel will undoubtedly suffer, people are travelling less and given the pressures the environmentalists are mounting it may well become ever increasingly expensive to fly. ‘Stay-cations’ are really catching on. Yes of course people want to get away, but remember we are comparing this to the bumper 2019 year, things may not return to that level of flying for several years.
The cost of flight training has steadily gone up and up. I spoke to a Cpt recently, and his training (back in’t day) set him back ~£50k integrated, his first airline job paid him about the same. Now you could be facing a bill of ~£130k with a starting salary of ~£30k. Add that to the insane cost of housing and you've got a pretty crap life-style. Seasonal positions are more common, it suits the airlines much more than it’ll suit you.
Ignore everything you hear about ‘pilot shortage’. This is a myth pedalled by the big flight schools to keep a steady stream of naive 19 yr olds with £100k spare walking through the door. Why does going modular cost £50k but integrated cost £100k? I’ll give you a clue, it’s their bottom line.
Airbus are going to seriously start looking at single pilot operations soon. Shortage or not, they can make the system safer and half the flight crew costs for any airline. Who wouldn’t want to buy into that? I’m surprised we still even have pilots tbh, Tesla will nail self-driving cars shortly and I doubt it’ll be too long before airlines turn into something resembling the DLR in London. We’re expensive and make mistakes.
If you wanted to be a pilot for your ‘passion of flying’ then you should look elsewhere, you don’t ‘fly’ an airliner, you manage it’s systems. You observe while the autopilot flies it for you. You don’t even get to make any decisions, ATC tell you where to go, The company tell you what to do you just comply blindly and recite SOPs to the point your brain isn’t paying attention but your mouth is moving. It is the ultimate zombie job. It’s really boring.
I asked a few flight crew what their favourite thing about the job was before I took the plunge, and they all said the same thing; “I’m well paid and I get lots of time off”.
That should have been a warning sign for me, best thing about the job, money. Second best thing about the job, the fact that you don’t have to do the job very often. One of the best things about being a pilot, is you don’t have to go to work very often. Just think about that for a moment. I wish I had.
I’ve worked in small companies and big companies prior to this ‘career’, and I can tell you all those people that say “you’re just a number in an airline” are absolutely correct. More often than not crewing couldn’t give a rats arse if something incredibly important has come up, or that they are going to make you wait 6 hours for a taxi rather than rebook it. You are a commodity, and an annoying one that answers back and goes sick.
The current job market is flooded with experienced crew, for those of you graduating now you are in for a very painful few years while when airlines do eventually start re-hiring, you’ll be last to be picked. If you are in ground school then you are very lucky. See this as a gift, an opportunity from god to jump ship before it goes down. Yes it will have cost you £5k but that’s not too bad.
Also don’t forget some crew flying today have been made redundant several times already. Airlines rely on public disposable income to operate. And in a recession it is the first thing to go. Financial crisis and 9/11 are proof of this. In 10 years we’ll be hit with another recession and this all starts again. It is a VERY cyclical industry. Want to risk your job, house, lifestyle, kids school fees etc on a job that yo-yos every 10 years? Think you’re safe when you get a command? Well no because you’ll have lost all your seniority all over again.
SARS was recent history, what’s stopping this happening again in another 10/20 years? Countries will be FAR quicker to act in future, international travel will be the first thing to be stopped in fear of another Covid pandemic.
One final note, flying gives you zero transferable skills, people will say otherwise that we are amazing leaders, team-players etc etc, but ask yourself why all the redundant pilots either work as delivery drivers or shelf stackers? Once you leave aviation, either through choice or redundancy you are essentially zero qualified to do anything other than fly. A lot of people go into flying after A-levels, and 10 years down the line
a brick because they soon realise how poor their prospects in the big wide world are. The future is computers, AI, big-data, tech, sustainability, renewables. Go and start a career in something that will give you a fulfilling job for the next 40 years. Because this aint it.
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Mohammed ,
A candid and articulate post albeit a bitterly sobering one...We all wish you could be proved wrong, but I fear your assessment is accurate- at least for the foreseeable future. Airlines are desperate to get the public flying again and the public seem keen to do so. It seems governments have become resistant to expanding the sector and encouraging people to take to the skies again because they see aviation now as toxic - in the same way as they view the internal combustion engine in cars.
There seems to have been a seismic shift in the last 15 months in identifying why people should fly at all apart from an annual holiday abroad to escape the drudgery of Zoom meetings, and the longer we stay away from flying the harder it will be to recapture the old ways pre pandemic...
All very disquieting I know😔
A candid and articulate post albeit a bitterly sobering one...We all wish you could be proved wrong, but I fear your assessment is accurate- at least for the foreseeable future. Airlines are desperate to get the public flying again and the public seem keen to do so. It seems governments have become resistant to expanding the sector and encouraging people to take to the skies again because they see aviation now as toxic - in the same way as they view the internal combustion engine in cars.
There seems to have been a seismic shift in the last 15 months in identifying why people should fly at all apart from an annual holiday abroad to escape the drudgery of Zoom meetings, and the longer we stay away from flying the harder it will be to recapture the old ways pre pandemic...
All very disquieting I know😔
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Muhammad Antar
A lot of what you write is depressingly accurate, particularly the cynical behaviour of flight training schools and airlines, the outrageous cost of training, the horribly cyclical nature of the airline industry and the knock on effects for job security. I never fully understood the volatile nature of the industry before I joined it.
I’d take issue with a few of your other points though. I enjoy my job and I go to work for more than just money, although the money is (for now) still good. I enjoy the travel, the people and the brief periods of escape from the relentless job of parenting two young children. I honestly don’t know how people who either commute 5 days a week or, god forbid, work from home don’t go completely mad. Let’s not pretend that everyone else has some deeply fulfilling job that pays them great money and has them dancing out of bed every morning. A minority do, but for most people work is work. It pays the bills.
Also, on the whole driverless car/ airplane debate I think it’s so easy to make throwaway comments about how everything will just drive itself in a few years from now. It is quite a fashionable opinion to hold. The technical challenges to implementation seem to me, to be incredibly high. Your Tesla might be OK on the wide, quiet, well marked roads of California but on the crappy congested roads of the UK I’m not so sure. Similarly we all know the pitfalls of having one person make all the decisions on the flight deck. That’s why the industry developed CRM. As long as humans are making the decisions (as opposed to moving the flight control surfaces, which I grant you the automatics are very good at doing - most of the time anyway) I don’t see how you safely move down to single Crew ops. And what you need to replace humans completely is proper AI with basically flawless resilience/redundancy. Eventually yes. In our working lifetimes, I’m sceptical.
Notwithstanding that I can’t, hand on heart, say I would recommend commercial flying to young people as a career. It is just too much of a lottery now and the ticket is far too expensive.
A lot of what you write is depressingly accurate, particularly the cynical behaviour of flight training schools and airlines, the outrageous cost of training, the horribly cyclical nature of the airline industry and the knock on effects for job security. I never fully understood the volatile nature of the industry before I joined it.
I’d take issue with a few of your other points though. I enjoy my job and I go to work for more than just money, although the money is (for now) still good. I enjoy the travel, the people and the brief periods of escape from the relentless job of parenting two young children. I honestly don’t know how people who either commute 5 days a week or, god forbid, work from home don’t go completely mad. Let’s not pretend that everyone else has some deeply fulfilling job that pays them great money and has them dancing out of bed every morning. A minority do, but for most people work is work. It pays the bills.
Also, on the whole driverless car/ airplane debate I think it’s so easy to make throwaway comments about how everything will just drive itself in a few years from now. It is quite a fashionable opinion to hold. The technical challenges to implementation seem to me, to be incredibly high. Your Tesla might be OK on the wide, quiet, well marked roads of California but on the crappy congested roads of the UK I’m not so sure. Similarly we all know the pitfalls of having one person make all the decisions on the flight deck. That’s why the industry developed CRM. As long as humans are making the decisions (as opposed to moving the flight control surfaces, which I grant you the automatics are very good at doing - most of the time anyway) I don’t see how you safely move down to single Crew ops. And what you need to replace humans completely is proper AI with basically flawless resilience/redundancy. Eventually yes. In our working lifetimes, I’m sceptical.
Notwithstanding that I can’t, hand on heart, say I would recommend commercial flying to young people as a career. It is just too much of a lottery now and the ticket is far too expensive.
Lot of pessimism here…..
I was laid off 5 days ago from easyJet and have already secured 2 job interviews. Several companies in Scandinavia indicating they will hire in the fall.
RyanAir is starting their cadet program again.
Things are tough in aviation- but they always were.
If this is anyone’s dream….then it is achievable.
Truth be told though….I am also educating myself next to the flying so I can walk away if the contracts become too ridiculous.
I was laid off 5 days ago from easyJet and have already secured 2 job interviews. Several companies in Scandinavia indicating they will hire in the fall.
RyanAir is starting their cadet program again.
Things are tough in aviation- but they always were.
If this is anyone’s dream….then it is achievable.
Truth be told though….I am also educating myself next to the flying so I can walk away if the contracts become too ridiculous.
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Fokker driver
You may have two interviews but getting a job offer is another story especially as the competition will be so great. HR will have fun whilst there is a glut of unemployed Pilots.
You may have two interviews but getting a job offer is another story especially as the competition will be so great. HR will have fun whilst there is a glut of unemployed Pilots.
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Muhammad Antar. Your post is so brutally honest and paints a sad but realistic picture of the state of play however I fear it will not put off any aspiring wannabee as most of them will swallow the glossy brochure and think that things can't be that bad or that it will be OK for them.
I have given the benefit of my similar advice to several families who want to help their offspring get established and guess what - they have totally ignored that advice and pressed ahead with funding an outrageously expensive integrated course as they were supposed to be on a worthless "tagged" scheme.
Years later some of them have had the good grace to acknowledge that I was right and wished that they had taken my advice but for most people reading this it will be a case of "Lambs to the slaughter".
I have given the benefit of my similar advice to several families who want to help their offspring get established and guess what - they have totally ignored that advice and pressed ahead with funding an outrageously expensive integrated course as they were supposed to be on a worthless "tagged" scheme.
Years later some of them have had the good grace to acknowledge that I was right and wished that they had taken my advice but for most people reading this it will be a case of "Lambs to the slaughter".
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Does anyone actually expect that someone will reconsider their career choice based on an anonymous post on an Internet forum? Most wannabe pilots actually realise that it's tough out there, but still try their best. Some manage to get through and have a decent lifetime of flying, others fall flat on their face. It's a combination of ability, attitude, contacts and, unfortunately, luck and timing. And largely a matter of how much you're willing to sacrifice for the sake of flying. The latter is one reason why I do expect that some of the redundant pilots will not be back once things pick up - the most common reason for calling quits is that the compromises required with personal life, family etc become unacceptable for the individual.
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Yes agreed it is difficult to get good honest advice. The sources are direct contact albeit anonymously with people who in the main have had experience (via this forum) or the barefaced lying salesmen (possibly) that work at flying schools who have a vested interest in getting as many trainees through the door. Not a choice that is an easy one to make.
That is very very true!!
But after September 11th I went more than a year without a job …. send out hundreds of applications…and was not even called for a single interview.
In easyJet I have been forced to move several times too, due to command and base closures. The running joke is that I made more money on real estate than actually flying.
But yes…the constant moving countries is taking a toll, and I am no longer a spring chicken.
I suspect I will not be too upset if I never get a flying job again, but have my freedom to live close to my family instead
But after September 11th I went more than a year without a job …. send out hundreds of applications…and was not even called for a single interview.
In easyJet I have been forced to move several times too, due to command and base closures. The running joke is that I made more money on real estate than actually flying.
But yes…the constant moving countries is taking a toll, and I am no longer a spring chicken.
I suspect I will not be too upset if I never get a flying job again, but have my freedom to live close to my family instead
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More interesting reading for you......
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ID-19_pandemic
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ID-19_pandemic