Realistic job prospects
 

More than half of the world’s pilots are no longer flying, as the Covid-19 pandemic continue to decimate the travel industry.

Just 43 per cent of the world’s pilots are still flying for a living, according to a survey carried out by aviation publisher FlightGlobal and GOOSE Recruitment.

There was an article in the FT today saying the flight schools are getting busy again. The flight schools themselves seem recession-proof.

£100k plus £30k to get 6 circuits in a 737-800 and a cool instagram photo. Whether or not these people will ever fly again is still an open question.

The vast majority of us in the aviation industry are saying now is a bad time to train as a pilot, there are no jobs. The recovery will be slow. None of this matters to the many people who are desperate to become pilots, patience is a virtue not known to them.

You would suppose that an adult who's got his/her heart set on spending six digits to train for a job which involves responsibility for the lives and the safety of hundreds of people and some dreadfully expensive equipment every day is able to make informed decisions. If they want to crack on with training in this situation, it's none of the flight school's business to try and convince them otherwise. Shopkeepers don't start explaining the harm of smoking to every customer who wants to buy cigarettes, do they? If you've reached the stage when you're buying whatever is on offer, you must have already done the maths. Whether the possible negative outcome is lung cancer or a few years without a job and with an expensive qualification to maintain doesn't really matter.

Aviation industry will recover sooner than people expect.
I am not sure if it's a good time to start training at the moment but for sure in 2-3 years there will be huge pilots shortage on the market.
Numbers of operations will get back to those before pandemics but the number of pilots not.
Some just won't get back to flying due to their age, early retirement deals and many others.
Just wait and see good contracts poping up from 2022/23
Airlines will panic for lack of pilots. Remeber my words.

My "optimistic scenario" prediction is that the shortage will start at roughly 90% of pre-COVID operations. For the exact reason that many former pilots will be permanently out of flying because of retirement or career change. Let's wait and see when we reach said 90% though. I'm not inspired with what's going on with the Delta strain as we speak.

I am sure that many of our aircrew comrades are hoping that a shortage will occur as it means earnings and t&c will improve somewhat.

Qbix

Serious question: why do you think that? I personally believe something has permanently changed in business travel, and business class passengers make the revenue and drive the frequencies. Travel budgets in most companies have been slashed, permanently, as it turns out you can actually get stuff done on zoom. Not everything, but a big chunk of it.

​​​​I look forward a lot to recovery, but I'm just not seeing traffic bounce back quickly.

For every one stating oh yes Zoom and Teams will destroy business traffic i talk to 3-4 who cant wait to get back to face to face meetings as online just doesnt work as well as in person meetings

So those 3 or 4 are 80% of your traffic back. That would be great if it wasn't for the fact that travel budgets are no longer there. The bean counters decide, not just in airlines...

That's the point I'm making, and I fear it will have lasting consequences for this industry

Qbix

haha sure on planet mars . Here is my story Finished Training 2012 got a job in late 2017 ! Your question why ? oh wait because of the 2008 Crisis ... You guys are dreaming !

Chief Willy

I think doing a modular course alongside a full / part time job is perfectly sensible even now. What I don't think is sensible is dropping a mortgage-sized amount of money on training with no fall-back plan.

Indeed clarkey

clarkeysntfc

completely agree. Been reading a lot of articles recently about pilots qualifying and cant get a job with a huge loan hanging over them. Very risky and in my opinion silly tactic regardless of covid or a financial crash.

So much negativity on here too. Im ppl hour building going the modular route with a good full time job behind me and maybe im naive but im not overly worried. Not having a massive debt over you goes a long way in helping this. In the 3-4 years it will be before im looking an aviation job i have some hope. Seems im one of the only ones though

Yep that is true, a lot of the recovery is happening in the United States, some parts of the Asia and the Middle East, and honesty no one could predict as to what's gonna happen in a few months time. What I am trying to do right now is to get my PPL done along with my masters, and get a job, while flying on the side slowly. I love general aviation, couldn't wait to be the next Trent Palmer, just jk.

https://thehill.com/policy/transport...pilot-shortage

The boss of United has openly said that he expects a pilot shortage which is an extraordinary admission by a current airline CEO. With active pilot licence numbers (and issuances of new ones) on the decline even before the pandemic, career changes and early retirements may even exacerbate an acute shortage.

Time for the unions to earn their dues.

The USA is a totally different beast to Europe. In the US they have an ageing pilot body. In Europe the average age of pilots is extremely young due to the mega boom in lowcost airlines since around 2003. Where I work we have very few retirements for about a decade.

arrowcapitan

Might be that you were looking for a job on Mars while they were here on Earth. I remember those years you could actually pick any you liked. At least here in EU.

Yep, very true. Not a lot them in some parts like India as well. A lot of young pilots/cadets.

Also the US has the 1500 hour rule, there was a shortage of those with 1500 hours required to fly any part 25 certified aircraft. There isn't necessarily a shortage of low hour FAA cpl IR holders. In the US you cant sale a type rating to a 200 hour pilot anymore.

A similar rule in Europe would mess things up for Ryanair. There was a recruitment peak around 2017 to 2019 in Europe but that was the first time in 20 years if not longer.

The schools are still producing a steady supply of candidates so a pilot shortage in Europe is unlikley.

It is interesting to see an element of the trainee/less experienced Pilot community taking things slowly in the hope that their timing for course completion will coincide with a demand for their services. Historically, Airlines are one of the first to suffer in a recession or in this case a pandemic and are the last to recover. Hoped for early retirements or career changes by existing type rated and experienced crews - now furloughed - is just wishful thinking. Imagine yourself in that situation with loans and other commitments being forced to take on lower-paid work - you would jump at the chance of returning to the cockpit. Also, the Airlines insurance companies would want a certain level of experience up front so don't hang your hopes on those particular scenarios. There is already an example on here of someone qualifying in 2012 and securing a job in 2017 - can you wait 5 years? He doesn't say whether he kept his ratings/medical current which is just further expense. He/She doesn't say how badly this current situation is affecting him/her and it could be that this person has enjoyed only a 2 to 3 year career. The ambitious 90% recovery is certainly a best guess and maybe an element of wishful thinking involved there. With no worldwide joined-up thinking on allowing foreign travel to start again and the occasional Covid variant springing up again it is irresponsible of the Training Schools to encourage future students through their doors on the pretext of a Pilot shortage. There isn't one and it is highly unlikely there will be one for about a decade. Sorry.