What if automation takes over
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What if automation takes over
Guys I'm going to start my training in a while before which I wanna ask if computers and automation might take over our jobs real soon and if so how long from now is that prone to happen? Thanks
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I think this will all be speculation and opinion so potentially not that helpful.
We are already at a stage where automation plays a big role in the job and it’s likely that it will play an even greater role in the future.
However, in my opinion we won’t see fully automated flight for the next 20+ years. It will take an awful lot of development of computer decision making and trust to build up in order to get to that stage. (I am talking no pilot involved whatsoever.)
I do believe that pilots will no longer be on the flight deck a lot sooner. I personally think that commercial air travel will move to a more drone like system, where aircraft are monitored/flown by a crew from the ground and potentially these crews could be used to monitor multiple flights at once. Freeing up resources and space on aircraft.
As I say, pure speculation, but I wouldn't expect pilots to be irrelevant in the near future.
We are already at a stage where automation plays a big role in the job and it’s likely that it will play an even greater role in the future.
However, in my opinion we won’t see fully automated flight for the next 20+ years. It will take an awful lot of development of computer decision making and trust to build up in order to get to that stage. (I am talking no pilot involved whatsoever.)
I do believe that pilots will no longer be on the flight deck a lot sooner. I personally think that commercial air travel will move to a more drone like system, where aircraft are monitored/flown by a crew from the ground and potentially these crews could be used to monitor multiple flights at once. Freeing up resources and space on aircraft.
As I say, pure speculation, but I wouldn't expect pilots to be irrelevant in the near future.
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As a wannabe myself this is something I've thought quite a bit about.
You can argue all day about whether the technology exists, whether pax would accept it etc etc but let's for a minute assume all that is resolved tomorrow.
For Airbus/Boeing to develop a new clean slate aircraft will be 5-10yrs minimum. Add another 5yrs to re-write the rulebook and certify all the new avionics. Even if a traditional aircraft was never sold again it'd probably still be additional 10 yrs until all aircraft were replaced by drones. So worst case thats 20yrs from the day they start designing something, which doesn't look like being any time soon.
And of course that assumes they develop all in 1 go. Much more likely IMO is that some of the next generation of aircraft (2030+) may move to 1 pilot supported by a remote, ground based assistant who could monitor several flights. Full automation would then be another 10+yrs after that, if ever.
In summary, I don't think we have to panic yet. If pilots are automated away just think how many other, much simpler jobs will be too. Society would have changed so much by that point that predictions are probably all meaningless.
You can argue all day about whether the technology exists, whether pax would accept it etc etc but let's for a minute assume all that is resolved tomorrow.
For Airbus/Boeing to develop a new clean slate aircraft will be 5-10yrs minimum. Add another 5yrs to re-write the rulebook and certify all the new avionics. Even if a traditional aircraft was never sold again it'd probably still be additional 10 yrs until all aircraft were replaced by drones. So worst case thats 20yrs from the day they start designing something, which doesn't look like being any time soon.
And of course that assumes they develop all in 1 go. Much more likely IMO is that some of the next generation of aircraft (2030+) may move to 1 pilot supported by a remote, ground based assistant who could monitor several flights. Full automation would then be another 10+yrs after that, if ever.
In summary, I don't think we have to panic yet. If pilots are automated away just think how many other, much simpler jobs will be too. Society would have changed so much by that point that predictions are probably all meaningless.
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I find all of this quite interesting too but I can't say I'm particularly worried about it.
As mentioned above, I'd think that the timeframe to refine such technology, roll it out and more importantly to integrate the concept into society will far exceed my career span.
I assume that most people here are rather fond of flight, but a heck of a lot of folk are still incredibly apprehensive about it, despite it being more commonplace and routine than ever. It will take at least a generation for the notion of any automated air transport to be widely accepted.
Let's say the technology is available in 10 years though - who is going to be the first airline to take the plunge? Who's to say anyone will fly with them given the option? So there could be a bit of a stand-off even at that point. It may take everyone to agree on implementation at the same time, which would be a very long process if not completely unrealistic.
And like you mention, the aircraft will need to be monitored/controlled by a trained professional on the ground, which brings up all sorts of potential communications issues, especially in bad weather etc. So you may as well have the monitoring performed locally.
I could see single pilot ops happening, although imagine the press fallout after the first pilot incapacitation. So maybe we could have single pilot ops but with an option to somehow control the aircraft from the ground in an emergency. But then again, maybe that's not a good idea in this day and age of terrorism and network hacking. So perhaps we'll just have one pilot and a plane that conducts an autoland should that pilot become incapacitated.
In summary then, it would make far more sense for any new automation technology to be fully utilised, but monitored by a trained professional in the air. And maybe with some trained backup for that person just in case. Actually...hang on....
As mentioned above, I'd think that the timeframe to refine such technology, roll it out and more importantly to integrate the concept into society will far exceed my career span.
I assume that most people here are rather fond of flight, but a heck of a lot of folk are still incredibly apprehensive about it, despite it being more commonplace and routine than ever. It will take at least a generation for the notion of any automated air transport to be widely accepted.
Let's say the technology is available in 10 years though - who is going to be the first airline to take the plunge? Who's to say anyone will fly with them given the option? So there could be a bit of a stand-off even at that point. It may take everyone to agree on implementation at the same time, which would be a very long process if not completely unrealistic.
And like you mention, the aircraft will need to be monitored/controlled by a trained professional on the ground, which brings up all sorts of potential communications issues, especially in bad weather etc. So you may as well have the monitoring performed locally.
I could see single pilot ops happening, although imagine the press fallout after the first pilot incapacitation. So maybe we could have single pilot ops but with an option to somehow control the aircraft from the ground in an emergency. But then again, maybe that's not a good idea in this day and age of terrorism and network hacking. So perhaps we'll just have one pilot and a plane that conducts an autoland should that pilot become incapacitated.
In summary then, it would make far more sense for any new automation technology to be fully utilised, but monitored by a trained professional in the air. And maybe with some trained backup for that person just in case. Actually...hang on....
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Even Isaac Asimov, who was no luddite or enemy of science and technology talked about the need to move towards a more scientific, resource based economy before a "type 1" civilisation could be reached. Most technical innovations that make professions redundant are driven by the need to maximise overall profit. In many cases they lead to great technical achievements that benefit people but that is not their primary purpose. It's worth bearing in mind that the people who will have the last say in any of this are insurance actuaries, and they work purely by the numbers. I'd give it 20 years for the first single pilot airliner ops then it's anybody's guess how it transpires. Phasing in such a thing would be complicated beyond contemplation. Personally I'd still prefer to see grey hair than grey boxes up front, but that's just me.
