Hope for the future!
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Hope for the future!
Hi all,
After reading so many depressing and concerning stories, perhaps this will cheer some of us up:
Boeing projects need for one million pilots and maintenance personnel in next 20 years
Siva Govindasamy, Singapore (16Sep10, 04:44 GMT, 248 words)
Boeing has forecast that the commercial aviation industry will require 466,650 pilots and 596,500 maintenance personnel over the next 20 years given the strong demand for new and replacement aircraft.
This translates into an average of 23,300 new pilots and 30,000 new maintenance personnel per year between 2010 and 2029, adds the airframer.
The forecasted number of pilots required in the next 20 years is twice the 233,000 pilots in the industry currently, while the number of maintenance personnel required is six times of the 100,000 such personnel today, says Roei Ganzarski, chief customer officer, Boeing Training and Flight Services.
This is the first time that Boeing is releasing such a forecast, which is based upon its current market outlook for aircraft.
"When you add up all the numbers, you quickly understand the issues facing this industry," he adds. "Our challenge is adapting our training to engage the future generation of people who will fly and maintain the more than 30,000 airplanes that will be delivered by 2029," says Ganzarski.
The largest growth will be in the Asia Pacific, with a requirement for 180,600 pilots and 220,000 maintenance personnel. Within Asia, China will experience the greatest growth with 70,600 pilots and 96,400 maintenance personnel.
North America will need 97,350 pilots and 137,000 maintenance workers, Europe 94,800 and 122,000 respectively, Africa 13,200 and 15,000 respectively, the Middle East 32,700 and 44,500 respectively, Latin America 37,000 pilots and 44,000 respectively, and the CIS 11,000 and 14,000 respectively.
Source: Air Transport Intelligence news
After reading so many depressing and concerning stories, perhaps this will cheer some of us up:
Boeing projects need for one million pilots and maintenance personnel in next 20 years
Siva Govindasamy, Singapore (16Sep10, 04:44 GMT, 248 words)
Boeing has forecast that the commercial aviation industry will require 466,650 pilots and 596,500 maintenance personnel over the next 20 years given the strong demand for new and replacement aircraft.
This translates into an average of 23,300 new pilots and 30,000 new maintenance personnel per year between 2010 and 2029, adds the airframer.
The forecasted number of pilots required in the next 20 years is twice the 233,000 pilots in the industry currently, while the number of maintenance personnel required is six times of the 100,000 such personnel today, says Roei Ganzarski, chief customer officer, Boeing Training and Flight Services.
This is the first time that Boeing is releasing such a forecast, which is based upon its current market outlook for aircraft.
"When you add up all the numbers, you quickly understand the issues facing this industry," he adds. "Our challenge is adapting our training to engage the future generation of people who will fly and maintain the more than 30,000 airplanes that will be delivered by 2029," says Ganzarski.
The largest growth will be in the Asia Pacific, with a requirement for 180,600 pilots and 220,000 maintenance personnel. Within Asia, China will experience the greatest growth with 70,600 pilots and 96,400 maintenance personnel.
North America will need 97,350 pilots and 137,000 maintenance workers, Europe 94,800 and 122,000 respectively, Africa 13,200 and 15,000 respectively, the Middle East 32,700 and 44,500 respectively, Latin America 37,000 pilots and 44,000 respectively, and the CIS 11,000 and 14,000 respectively.
Source: Air Transport Intelligence news
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It is until you start to strip away some of the numbers.
5 countries: China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and the USA account for roughly 48% of the worlds population and that is broadly where the main expansion is forecast. Good news if you are a citizen of one of those countries looking to train for one of these careers in the next two decades. However take out a proportional 48% and that million is now down to 520,000.
Pilots and engineers. If you are interested in the former and assuming a rather generous even split, that whittles the figure down by a further 50% to 260,000.
Of the remaining 190 countries (some don't count, and some count more than others in aviation demographic terms,) but for the point of illustration share out the remaining number equally, and you are now down to an average of 1368
Over how many years? 20! That is about 68 a year. Not that stunning really, and these are optimistic figures from a party in whose commercial interest it is to talk up the market.
Of course 68 is no more accurate in any one domain, than a million is as a glitzy number. Rather like winning a million on the lottery being tempered by the fact that you have to share it with 14,706 other winners as well. Statistics are magical versatile things, and rather like beauty, are very much in the eye of the beholder.
5 countries: China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and the USA account for roughly 48% of the worlds population and that is broadly where the main expansion is forecast. Good news if you are a citizen of one of those countries looking to train for one of these careers in the next two decades. However take out a proportional 48% and that million is now down to 520,000.
Pilots and engineers. If you are interested in the former and assuming a rather generous even split, that whittles the figure down by a further 50% to 260,000.
Of the remaining 190 countries (some don't count, and some count more than others in aviation demographic terms,) but for the point of illustration share out the remaining number equally, and you are now down to an average of 1368
Over how many years? 20! That is about 68 a year. Not that stunning really, and these are optimistic figures from a party in whose commercial interest it is to talk up the market.
Of course 68 is no more accurate in any one domain, than a million is as a glitzy number. Rather like winning a million on the lottery being tempered by the fact that you have to share it with 14,706 other winners as well. Statistics are magical versatile things, and rather like beauty, are very much in the eye of the beholder.
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Call me Mr. Cynical, but can anyone think of a reason why an aircraft manufacturer might want to talk up the need for loads more pilots to fly all the new aircraft they'd like to sell?
Rather than thinly disguised sales pitches from Boeing, I'd be much more interested in the back pages of 'Flight', which are at least starting to look more positive – albeit for experienced pilots.
Rather than thinly disguised sales pitches from Boeing, I'd be much more interested in the back pages of 'Flight', which are at least starting to look more positive – albeit for experienced pilots.
