Looks as if the downturn is upon us... (again)
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: The Desert but shortly to be HK!)
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Looks as if the downturn is upon us... (again)
I haven't posted on this forum for a while now and whilst there are several posts out there promising of greener fields ahead I really felt compelled to write this thread as things again are looking soooo bad.
When I start the first "downturn is upon us" thread a little over 2 years ago I didn't have a crystal ball it was just a case of the obvious risks far outweighing the potential rewards..... in terms of both financial markets and airline pilot training..... folks we are back in that situation again now.
The austerity measures in Greece will arrive in the Uk over the next 6 months once the election is out of the way (although granted perhaps not as severe).... Spain, Ireland, Portugal all have their issues. I would happily take 2-3 years of flat lining GDP if it meant avoiding a Sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone.... if that happens it would be a disaster for the aviation industry.... an absolute disaster.
Everything in the debt markets is feeling a little too much like 2008 (although granted with differences). If the cost of borrowing for governments goes up the cost of borrowing for everyone goes up. We are still up to our necks in s**t and holding your nose does not solve the problem.
I have to say I am just as worried now as I was 2 years ago... liquidity is drying up in credit markets again.
Unless you can do your training without getting into debt signing up to an integrated course is about as close to financial suicide now as I can think.
Good luck but I would seriously seriously take with a pinch of salt those folks saying airline recruitment is going to pick up again over the next 1-2 years.
When I start the first "downturn is upon us" thread a little over 2 years ago I didn't have a crystal ball it was just a case of the obvious risks far outweighing the potential rewards..... in terms of both financial markets and airline pilot training..... folks we are back in that situation again now.
The austerity measures in Greece will arrive in the Uk over the next 6 months once the election is out of the way (although granted perhaps not as severe).... Spain, Ireland, Portugal all have their issues. I would happily take 2-3 years of flat lining GDP if it meant avoiding a Sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone.... if that happens it would be a disaster for the aviation industry.... an absolute disaster.
Everything in the debt markets is feeling a little too much like 2008 (although granted with differences). If the cost of borrowing for governments goes up the cost of borrowing for everyone goes up. We are still up to our necks in s**t and holding your nose does not solve the problem.
I have to say I am just as worried now as I was 2 years ago... liquidity is drying up in credit markets again.
Unless you can do your training without getting into debt signing up to an integrated course is about as close to financial suicide now as I can think.
Good luck but I would seriously seriously take with a pinch of salt those folks saying airline recruitment is going to pick up again over the next 1-2 years.
Join Date: Nov 2007
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Very interesting.
New government promising sweeping spending cuts, openly stating "its going to be painful", yet no one seems interested.
Why not? Surely 50 to 100k with no job at the end is just as painful as it was 2 years ago?
New government promising sweeping spending cuts, openly stating "its going to be painful", yet no one seems interested.
Why not? Surely 50 to 100k with no job at the end is just as painful as it was 2 years ago?
Join Date: Sep 2005
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For certain in the industry I am working in (retail) which is an excellent barometer for jo bloggs wallet it's tough, sales are well down in my company and all my friends that work elsewhere in the industry are suffering equally. In fact I think people are no spending less than when the poop first hut the fan a few years ago. Tough times ahead, especially with potenial VAT rises...
Join Date: Jun 2006
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I spend far too much time at FBos, which are a pretty good indication of how things are in the world, where we used to thread our way through lots of heavy metal to park, we now have the pick of the ramp in most places, crew rooms empty of the sound of the fractional pilots bitching about their lot in life, no cookies in the jar and no free coffee at some places, if these items are not an indication of a downturn, then I dont know what is! The comercial real estate mess is the sleeper in the USA, its a sleeper for most folks but it will go down the tube shortly, then watch the G5s and BBJs vanish to some far of place beyond the reach of the repo man. Its being so cheerfull that keeps me going!
