Pilot shortage
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Pilot shortage
Simple question really:
Are we gonna see a pilot shortage in the next two years or have we got some time to go?
I am a wannabe with 140 hours on a PPL. I hear many conflicting views:
"Easyjet are taking on pilots to fly their ever growing fleet of new aeroplanes"
"Aviation is on a downer due to people not wanting to fly"
What are people's opinions on all this????
Also:
If one has £35000 in his pocket is Leeds multiflight a good place to go for CPL/ATPL Training???
Are we gonna see a pilot shortage in the next two years or have we got some time to go?
I am a wannabe with 140 hours on a PPL. I hear many conflicting views:
"Easyjet are taking on pilots to fly their ever growing fleet of new aeroplanes"
"Aviation is on a downer due to people not wanting to fly"
What are people's opinions on all this????
Also:
If one has £35000 in his pocket is Leeds multiflight a good place to go for CPL/ATPL Training???
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I read an interesting article in the Readers Digest very recently which was trying to predict future 'growth' jobs and you guessed it, pilots were up there. It was certainly nice to read.
What is perhaps more important are the time scales they were talking about which I believe were medium term future, (i.e 5-10 years). Not all that good for someone like me, (and prob many others here) who feel that have to decide soon whether to jump in or not. When/if I start training, I want to jack the day job in and put in 150% hoping to get myself into a marketable position before I get too old.
Personally, I think that things will be considerably better in about 5 years, hopefully much sooner :-)
What is perhaps more important are the time scales they were talking about which I believe were medium term future, (i.e 5-10 years). Not all that good for someone like me, (and prob many others here) who feel that have to decide soon whether to jump in or not. When/if I start training, I want to jack the day job in and put in 150% hoping to get myself into a marketable position before I get too old.
Personally, I think that things will be considerably better in about 5 years, hopefully much sooner :-)
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It's all absolute b*ll*cks in a nutshell.
It just depends on who the journalist in question has been listening to.
There is no doubt that right now, there is a shortage of highly experienced, type rated, current captains on popular types of modern jets. Especially ones that want to work for peanuts. There is almost always a shortage of those kind of pilots
There is never ever in a million years going to be a shortage of sub 1000 hour FATPL holders. In fact in all but the most peculiar times, I would estimate there are 5 to 10 times more wannabes than there are entry-level jobs.
The bad thing is that flying school marketing departments twist these dumb media stories to their own ends.
I have been hearing the same old 'pilot shortage' song being sung for as long as I've been flying - well over a decade now - and I have yet to see one
It just depends on who the journalist in question has been listening to.
There is no doubt that right now, there is a shortage of highly experienced, type rated, current captains on popular types of modern jets. Especially ones that want to work for peanuts. There is almost always a shortage of those kind of pilots
There is never ever in a million years going to be a shortage of sub 1000 hour FATPL holders. In fact in all but the most peculiar times, I would estimate there are 5 to 10 times more wannabes than there are entry-level jobs.
The bad thing is that flying school marketing departments twist these dumb media stories to their own ends.
I have been hearing the same old 'pilot shortage' song being sung for as long as I've been flying - well over a decade now - and I have yet to see one
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There are currently thousands and thousands of type rated pilots unemployed with thousands of hours each.
Hardly representative, I know, but I was out for a beer last night with a fellow ppruner who has recently been hired by a well-respected charter airline with little more than 400 hrs and a multi-IR. He had no contacts with the airline beforehand and although it doesn't prove or disprove either argument it does show that some of these thousands 
of type-rated must be keeping very quiet.
of type-rated must be keeping very quiet.
My first reaction is always to scoff at pilot shortage claims. There are thousands out there with licenses looking for work and many will never find any.
However, there may well be a slight crunch coming:
a) Ten year average growth in aviation is going to run at an annualised rate of something above 7%. Flying schools are not increasing capacity at that rate or anywhere near it over the last 3 years.
b) A typical Armed Services career for a pilot would last about 16 years. The Berlin Wall fell down in 1989 and the military couldn't stop hiring quickly enough and then didn't hire hardly at all for nearly a decade. Therefore from about 2005 one might expect to see a significant reduction in the numbers of pilots (experienced and talented ones at that) that enter civvy street from Liz's Flying Club.
c) There was a much hyped 'retirement bulge' due for the New Millenium and everyone thought that might provide a pilot hiring boom. Unluckily for Wannabes Sept 11th neatly dovetailed and the crunch never came. However, retirements are going to be quite high for coming years as it was in the 1970's that the Jet package holiday phenomena descended upon the UK. This brought with it a lot of new pilots who now - 30 years on - are in their 50's and keenly working on their golfing handicaps.
d) The industry is going to find it more difficult than it used to in attracting talent. Frankly the job is a lot less well paid and less glamorous than it used to be. Who really wants to work 12hr days on shift work patterns loosing weekends and bank holidays whilst spending lots of time away from home and commuting? Nobody much.
So. Things over the next 5 years may well swing the Wannabes way. Pilots are cheap and there is little more expensive an activity than having multi-million dollar jets sat idle due to a lack of competent hands to operate them. There really was a very brief pilot shortage in 1988/89. There may yet be one again.
But I still wouldn't bet on it.
Cheers
WWW
However, there may well be a slight crunch coming:
a) Ten year average growth in aviation is going to run at an annualised rate of something above 7%. Flying schools are not increasing capacity at that rate or anywhere near it over the last 3 years.
b) A typical Armed Services career for a pilot would last about 16 years. The Berlin Wall fell down in 1989 and the military couldn't stop hiring quickly enough and then didn't hire hardly at all for nearly a decade. Therefore from about 2005 one might expect to see a significant reduction in the numbers of pilots (experienced and talented ones at that) that enter civvy street from Liz's Flying Club.
c) There was a much hyped 'retirement bulge' due for the New Millenium and everyone thought that might provide a pilot hiring boom. Unluckily for Wannabes Sept 11th neatly dovetailed and the crunch never came. However, retirements are going to be quite high for coming years as it was in the 1970's that the Jet package holiday phenomena descended upon the UK. This brought with it a lot of new pilots who now - 30 years on - are in their 50's and keenly working on their golfing handicaps.
d) The industry is going to find it more difficult than it used to in attracting talent. Frankly the job is a lot less well paid and less glamorous than it used to be. Who really wants to work 12hr days on shift work patterns loosing weekends and bank holidays whilst spending lots of time away from home and commuting? Nobody much.
So. Things over the next 5 years may well swing the Wannabes way. Pilots are cheap and there is little more expensive an activity than having multi-million dollar jets sat idle due to a lack of competent hands to operate them. There really was a very brief pilot shortage in 1988/89. There may yet be one again.
But I still wouldn't bet on it.
Cheers
WWW
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I recently heard an interesting figure of 34% of current UK commercial pilots reaching retirement age by 2007. Can anyone confirm it? That has to be a good thing for all us wannabes surely?
I guess with thousands of unemployed type rated pliots already out there, anyone about to embark on training (myself included) will probably miss the boat!
JSJ
I guess with thousands of unemployed type rated pliots already out there, anyone about to embark on training (myself included) will probably miss the boat!
JSJ
The CAA figures show that aged between 49 and 59 there are currently 3,028 pilots who hold an ATPL and valid medical certificate.
Assuming they all retire at 60 they represent 28.9% of their community (there are 10,475 ATPLs on the CAAs books - one venerable gentleman being aged 79 with a valid Class One - well done Sir!)
If we say the population of ATPL holders is spread from age 25 to 60 giving a 35 year span then we would expect to see one 35th of 10,475 pilots in each year hypothetically. That would be 299 pilots per year.
Therefore we would expect to see in the next 10 years worth of retirements 2,999 pilots hang up their headsets.
The orginal figure of 3,028 looks remarkably like this - suggesting - alas no bulge.
Cheers
WWW
http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/175/srg_fc...ofessional.PDF
Assuming they all retire at 60 they represent 28.9% of their community (there are 10,475 ATPLs on the CAAs books - one venerable gentleman being aged 79 with a valid Class One - well done Sir!)
If we say the population of ATPL holders is spread from age 25 to 60 giving a 35 year span then we would expect to see one 35th of 10,475 pilots in each year hypothetically. That would be 299 pilots per year.
Therefore we would expect to see in the next 10 years worth of retirements 2,999 pilots hang up their headsets.
The orginal figure of 3,028 looks remarkably like this - suggesting - alas no bulge.
Cheers
WWW
http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/175/srg_fc...ofessional.PDF
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RTO
Really? Where? In Scandinavia?
I think the original poster was talking about the UK market (just a guess) and that is certainly not true here. For instance, Britannia were asking for 757/767 type rated pilots all summer long and into autumn. I don't think they got many applicants. DHL are currently looking for type rated 757 pilots, but again aren't getting flooded with such applicants. All those who were deposed after Sept 11th have got jobs again and with the likes of easyJet employing plenty of non-737 type rated pilots that again dispels the theory that there are thousands of type rated pilots desperately trying to get any job they can.
Recruitment has picked up here in the UK over the last year, but the schools have been relentlessly churning out their product and hence the 'pool' is still pretty vast. As others have said, it's experienced pilots that are in relatively short supply, but low hours guys (sorry chaps) are still ten-a-penny. I think 2004 is going to see more recruitment, but the vast majority are still going to find it difficult to get their first break, especially until BA start again, then things may get a little better. The upward trend in air travel is going to continue, but again it's not going to happen overnight, just like the the retirement bulge(s).
The most important thing for a Wannabe is to keep enhancing the CV once they have qualified because if you don't get a job with 250hrs the worst thing possible IMHO is to still have 250hrs 2 years later................
PP
There are currently thousands and thousands of type rated pilots unemployed with thousands of hours each.
I think the original poster was talking about the UK market (just a guess) and that is certainly not true here. For instance, Britannia were asking for 757/767 type rated pilots all summer long and into autumn. I don't think they got many applicants. DHL are currently looking for type rated 757 pilots, but again aren't getting flooded with such applicants. All those who were deposed after Sept 11th have got jobs again and with the likes of easyJet employing plenty of non-737 type rated pilots that again dispels the theory that there are thousands of type rated pilots desperately trying to get any job they can.
Recruitment has picked up here in the UK over the last year, but the schools have been relentlessly churning out their product and hence the 'pool' is still pretty vast. As others have said, it's experienced pilots that are in relatively short supply, but low hours guys (sorry chaps) are still ten-a-penny. I think 2004 is going to see more recruitment, but the vast majority are still going to find it difficult to get their first break, especially until BA start again, then things may get a little better. The upward trend in air travel is going to continue, but again it's not going to happen overnight, just like the the retirement bulge(s).
The most important thing for a Wannabe is to keep enhancing the CV once they have qualified because if you don't get a job with 250hrs the worst thing possible IMHO is to still have 250hrs 2 years later................
PP
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Ah yes Pete, but does it matter that the recruiting airlines are in Britain? How many UK accents do you hear with an Easy or Ryanair accent?
And how many non French with an Air France?
And how many non French with an Air France?
PPRuNe Knight in Shining Armour
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Ahhhh RTO,
You've lit the fire, the floor's open now for everyone.
Burn baby burn.....
Sorry just p1ssed off with this kind of tripe.
You've lit the fire, the floor's open now for everyone.
Burn baby burn.....
Sorry just p1ssed off with this kind of tripe.
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PP- And WHY do you think that Britannia, etc have had few/ no replies for type rated pilots? Because- there are no type rated pilots spare!
Through lack of investment, and penny pinching, airlines today are trying to source their new recruits from other
airlines, instead of taking on quality non-type-rated pilots, and training them onto their stuff through a bond, in the traditional way. You know, Pete, not having a type rating for a Boeing, of any number, or an Airbus, doesn't mean you are low houred.
And many pilots flying lowly, manual twin turbos know a hell of a lot more about coping with emergencies or bad weather than the button pushers in the glass cockpits!
Through lack of investment, and penny pinching, airlines today are trying to source their new recruits from other
airlines, instead of taking on quality non-type-rated pilots, and training them onto their stuff through a bond, in the traditional way. You know, Pete, not having a type rating for a Boeing, of any number, or an Airbus, doesn't mean you are low houred.
And many pilots flying lowly, manual twin turbos know a hell of a lot more about coping with emergencies or bad weather than the button pushers in the glass cockpits!
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No PP, In Europe and the UK market will be affected by the european supply of pilots as Cruise Alt points out. The unemployed, type rated pilots in the UK is included in the thousands
you poorly disguise your intention of earning more money of desperate wannabes with your CV enhancement business.
PP- And WHY do you think that Britannia, etc have had few/ no replies for type rated pilots? Because- there are no type rated pilots spare!
Through lack of investment, and penny pinching, airlines today are trying to source their new recruits from other airlines, instead of taking on quality non-type-rated pilots, and training them onto their stuff through a bond, in the traditional way.
You know, Pete, not having a type rating for a Boeing, of any number, or an Airbus, doesn't mean you are low houred.
an all ads/rumours for pilots states: dont bother without a rating and in some cases: time on type.
PP
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Maybe the thousands of unemployed are in the USA....?
Each of the 5 major US carriers have on average 2000 furloughed pilots on the street, some are still laying off every few months. And this does not even take into account those where the company went bust and they have absolutely no recall rights.
Conservative estimates are that there are more qualified/type rated/experineced pilots unemployed in the US than the TOTAL pilot population of several EU countries! Last count (not verified) was in excess of 12,000, some of whom have not flown since 9/11.
Europe is a different fish of course but you know what they say about globalization, particualarly in this industry.
It is far worse in the US than you can possibly imagine. From someone who knows only too well....
Each of the 5 major US carriers have on average 2000 furloughed pilots on the street, some are still laying off every few months. And this does not even take into account those where the company went bust and they have absolutely no recall rights.
Conservative estimates are that there are more qualified/type rated/experineced pilots unemployed in the US than the TOTAL pilot population of several EU countries! Last count (not verified) was in excess of 12,000, some of whom have not flown since 9/11.
Europe is a different fish of course but you know what they say about globalization, particualarly in this industry.
It is far worse in the US than you can possibly imagine. From someone who knows only too well....
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There are most certainly many thousands of unemployed type-rated pilots with many hours in the USA. Quite a few with EU connections are making their way over here...
However, my airline's experience suggests that the supply of experienced type-rated pilots in the UK job market is limited. There are some out there, but nowhere near as many as a year ago. That will be reflected throughout the market. Right now, there are still plenty of turboprop, air taxi and freight pilots (some with jet type ratings) who will be the next preferred source of pilots for the airlines, but they won't last forever. I would guess that the return of the 200-hour fATPL 737 co-pilot may be no more than 2 years away for some lucky people. Well, lucky if your only aim in aviation is to get into a jet cockpit, preferably without gaining any valuable experience before you get there!
That said, there are some complications in the equation. The retirement age for jet Captains in the EU will almost certainly be raised to 65 before long, once France, Italy and Portugal have been brought into line. The notion of a compulsory retirement age at all in the EU is coming under pressure from new legislation which may make retirement contingent on medical and skill assessments, rather than age. If that comes to pass, don't expect all those highly-paid guys in their late 50s to pack in when you thought they would! I, for one, will certainly work as long as I can - my kids won't leave university till I'm well over 60, and I'll need the money!
Scroggs
However, my airline's experience suggests that the supply of experienced type-rated pilots in the UK job market is limited. There are some out there, but nowhere near as many as a year ago. That will be reflected throughout the market. Right now, there are still plenty of turboprop, air taxi and freight pilots (some with jet type ratings) who will be the next preferred source of pilots for the airlines, but they won't last forever. I would guess that the return of the 200-hour fATPL 737 co-pilot may be no more than 2 years away for some lucky people. Well, lucky if your only aim in aviation is to get into a jet cockpit, preferably without gaining any valuable experience before you get there!
That said, there are some complications in the equation. The retirement age for jet Captains in the EU will almost certainly be raised to 65 before long, once France, Italy and Portugal have been brought into line. The notion of a compulsory retirement age at all in the EU is coming under pressure from new legislation which may make retirement contingent on medical and skill assessments, rather than age. If that comes to pass, don't expect all those highly-paid guys in their late 50s to pack in when you thought they would! I, for one, will certainly work as long as I can - my kids won't leave university till I'm well over 60, and I'll need the money!
Scroggs
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I see most of the replies have been out of UK & Europe in nature. Here in the states it's a mess!
I've been looking for a full-time job for about 1 1/2 years now, and I started when I first heard the "I have 400 hours and I'm flying citations" thingy! Here's my list of blood sweet and tears.
TT:1405 PIC: 1190 Turb: 283 MEL: 331
Instruction: 642
Aircraft Experience:
Fairchild Merlin IIIB- SA226: 48.5 Raytheon/Beech King Air 350: 103.6 King Air A100: 130.8 Raytheon/Beech Baron 55 & 58: 23.5
Other MEL: 24.5 Single Engine: 1031.6 Simulator: 43.2
I can't count the number of times I was tempted to just start writting hours in my logbook. I'm now talking with a guy and I am half tempted to spring the $18,000 USD for a CRJ-700 type. In hopes of something to happen. From my vantage point I see people under me in TT and over me getting the jobs. I'd like to see it end too!
I've been looking for a full-time job for about 1 1/2 years now, and I started when I first heard the "I have 400 hours and I'm flying citations" thingy! Here's my list of blood sweet and tears.
TT:1405 PIC: 1190 Turb: 283 MEL: 331
Instruction: 642
Aircraft Experience:
Fairchild Merlin IIIB- SA226: 48.5 Raytheon/Beech King Air 350: 103.6 King Air A100: 130.8 Raytheon/Beech Baron 55 & 58: 23.5
Other MEL: 24.5 Single Engine: 1031.6 Simulator: 43.2
I can't count the number of times I was tempted to just start writting hours in my logbook. I'm now talking with a guy and I am half tempted to spring the $18,000 USD for a CRJ-700 type. In hopes of something to happen. From my vantage point I see people under me in TT and over me getting the jobs. I'd like to see it end too!
