Special Status of Hong Kong
 

So I’m reading (while under CV19 hotel arrest in LA) that due to China’s law changes in Hong Kong, the USA is going to treat Hong Kong as part of mainland China. As I understand it, Hong Kong acts as a go between for trade between China and the rest of the world because it has a western style legal system which protects contracts and agreements signed by international corporations. This changes everything right? If this is the future for Hong Kong, big corporations will pull out quick smart.

Its a huge disaster right?

Its a huge disaster right?

Understatement if there ever was one.

Definitely a big blow for Hong Kong, but not devastating in my opinion.

China will remain the most important market of the future. Trump is fuming about China on Twitter, but if you look at the actual numbers you will see that trade with China under him has actually increased, not decreased. Additionally, Trump will not be able to form any alliance against China with other Western countries, he simply burned too many bridges. And only an alliance of the united West would be powerful enough to force China into negotiations.

China seems determined and willing to accept short-term trade difficulties with the US in exchange of increasing influence in Hong Kong. That is the reality.

Possibly Hong Kong will lose more market share to Singapore or Shanghai, probably lose citizen rights, probably lose credibility and be less attractive for expats.

But in my opinion, Hong Kong will remain a very important trade and financial centre. It doesn't have to be perfect, just better than Shanghai or Shenzen. And the market is simply too big to be served just by Shanghai alone anyway.

Even if Hong Kong will shift to a more Asian-focused role, the numbers are breathtaking. China has a population that is four times the size of the US, Asia 15 times. The EU, biggest trade blok in the world, will not impose any barriers, possibly will even sign a major trade deal in October this year.

Markets in Asia will continue to evolve and trade especially within Asia will grow strongly, and so will Hong Kong.

At least property prices will go down with 300000 bno’s going to the U.K.

Yikes. Yes this is bad, I suspect there will be some back pedalling by both sides at some stage but the consequences could be significant for airlines and local economy if not.

If you check the government’s housing index in HK, prices have made some healthy gains this year. well , thats upto March . The index is still around 300, so I don’t see much decline there from last year.

Once business returns, the index could well exceed 400 within the year.

A friend had their village house in SK listed for 20 mil last few months. They’ve just resisted it at 28 mil . Thats a big gain , and they may increase it again if the get a decent offer.
Mad, but true.

Hong Kong as we know it is finished. The coming battle of wills between the totalitarian CCP and the determined US G will leave HK as the beaten victim in the middle. There is really no hope for the future, as Xi perceives HK as a threat to his power, and is not willing to allow that threat to continue. HK will be crushed. Don't doubt it. Its golden era is over.

Hey the Commies are coming ! The commies are coming !

Oh.....they're here.

Ya.....wouldn't plan on much of a future. Communism turns everything it touches to shiite. Perhaps a very few get rich but all those folks in the middle who used to prosper -- Off to the gulags and daily indoctrination sessions from devil Mao.

Well, I guess that's that. As they say in the gold biz looks like this vein has played out.

He didn’t say it sold for $28 mil..he just said they listed it for $28 mil. You can buy my house in NZ for $2 mil if you want..and if you want, I have a bridge I can sell you too..??

I've been to HKG many times, I just love going there but if I have to apply for a visa to go there in future then I will flag it and cross it off my visiting list. Seems like Big Brother up the road is intent of circumventing the autonomy that's supposed to be in force until 2047. This latest law is just the starting point. MARK MY WORDS !!!!!!!! I feel sorry for you all :{ sadly the special status of Hong Kong is not going to be worth a piece of #%^&*

Big Brother ??
 

Seems like you have the EXACT same problem right in your own back yard with queen Lucinda stripping Kiwis and others of their rights...Mark My Words, it's just the starting point with the only difference being, y'all voting her government in !! Enjoy !

Not necessarily. These BNOs normally are high earners. As long as there is money to make there, they won't leave.

"IF" ???
 

"IF" threatened ???

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dipl...kongs-autonomy

Purely speculative, but I ask myself why there is a HKD and a CNY if there is no special status?

https://www.regulationasia.com/us-sc...ng-ipo-market/


The dollar peg allows IPO's in Hong Kong to generate USD. Shenzen and Shanghai can't do that.

Ha Ha
 

For all those who think HK has "something special" to offer, it DID at one time.. That time is over and whatever it "had" is running down the nullah in full view of every company now thinking of relocating..
That includes the once masters of CX.. Their malls and airplanes are empty and the red menace from the North has thrown their Royal Flush on the table.. Game over !!

You don't understand.

Hong Kong doesn' t have to be special as in perfect. It only needs to be better than Shanghai.

No. It has to be better than Singapore...

I think this is wrong.

China will never allow the main stock market of Chinese companies to be outside of the country.

1.4 Billion people will always have a financial centre in their own country, probably multiple ones. 400 million Europeans have London, Paris, Dublin, Frankfurt, Milan, Zurich and Geneva.

If you look at the numbers you will see the difference. Just compare the IPO volume of Singapore with Hong Kong. By market cap HK is five times bigger than Singapore, four times bigger volume in IPO's. Likely, this will increase with more Chinese companies looking for second listings in HK.

Additionally, Singapore will never provide foreign companies the same level of market access as Hong Kong.

PS and for the human rights aspect, try to protest in Singapore. you would last about 2 minutes

Exactly.

For every BNO that thinks the UK is the answer there’s 10 Chinese willing to move in who aren’t prepared to wait for Shanghai and Beijing to enter the 20th century.
Hong Kong has never been better than Singapore. Never will be. But Singapore will (probably) never be China.

If you’re a mercenary then there’s money to be made. However if you’re an expat who wants a western lifestyle then tragically the UK actually does look attractive now.

Having a lot of time in both places (my Dad was with SIA) I beg to differ. I’ll take HKG over Singapore any day. Living there is a lot different from visiting.

I get puzzled everytime I hear companies or people are leaving HKG for Singapore due to perceived loss of freedoms. Singapore being seen as a bastion of freedom has to be some kind of joke. Keep in mind they got capital/corporal punishment as well, whereas we don’t.

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion...de-alternative

The Prime Minister on immigration of hongkongers.

And Thatchers negotiations back then:
https://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/18/a...her/index.html

Ah, but China will (probably) become like Singapore which has:
No freedom of speech
No freedom of assembly
No free press
No independent judiciary
No free and fair elections
A very efficient secret police keeping dissent in check
Banned all weapons. Get caught with a firearm and you will face the hangman's noose. ( hence no gun crime )

A journalist friend of mine wrote a column for the International Herald Tribune (now the NY Times Intl edition) documenting cases where the Singapore courts were in the pockets of the ruling PAP (People's Action Party). He was charged with libel, tried inabsentia ,fined and declared persona non-grata in Singapore. The IHT paid his fine as well as their own. Any foreign publication that puts Singapore in a poor light is simply not distributed.

In 1995, Fortune magazine infamously devoted one issue titled "The Death of Hong Kong" and moved their Asian office from HK to Singapore. Head office obviously didnt listen to the hack on the street regarding press restrictions. Fortune moved back to HK after 2 or 3 years. Suprise suprise. ( none of their many dire HK predictions came true but they did sell alot of that issue)

In the 10 years since the Communist takeover of Hong Kong there were over 3,000 authorised protest marches. In more than 40 years, there has only been one protest in Singapore: a government sponsored protest consisting of 20 pro government people. The PRC has to deal with and shutdown an average of 50,000 protests a year. Since 1997 there have been over 10,000 authorised protest marches in HK and a lot of unauthorised ones.

In the past opposition cadidates in Singapore running for election were branded communists and jailed. That didn't put Singapore in a very good light so now every opposition cadidate's public remarks are now scrutinized with the aim of leveling libel charges. Inevitably found guilty, the penalty is a forfeture of everything including the libelers house and caning. After 3 expertly aimed blows the skin of your buttocks break leaving permanent scars.

As reported in the Far Eastern Economic Review ( before it ceased publication) government vehicles with loudspeakers would cruise districts where it was possible that an oppostion candidate would win , blaring out a message if they voted for the opposition that district would be denied government money.
For decades there were only 2 opposition members in government out of several hundred elected officials of the PAP.
Singapore also had the distinction of holding the world's longest serving political prisoner in living memory.

In the leadup to 1997 the Singaporean government launched a program where is would grant Singaporean citizenship to any HK person that wanted to escape before the communists took over. This program was terminated after 2 years as a total of only 7 HK persons took advantage of the program.
The former strongman of Singapore, Lee Kwan Yew ,Prime Minister 1959 to1990 became the "First Minister" when he retired from office. He was then appointed to be an official advisor by the PRC as China envisions to be just like Singapore with it's inherent social controls.
In Singapore, the government is refered to as Big Brother and the New Straits Times is called Pravda.
The PAP rules Singapore with an iron fist but looks after it's citizens from cradle to grave. In return, they demand complete obedience.

Jake Van der Kamp, former coloumnist for the SCMP , makes a convincing argument that Singapore is the closest embodiment of the principles of Karl Marx.

Having said all that... I would have no problem living in Singapore as I am not a social activist or civil rights campaigner, nor am I a member of the NRA.

Progress Wanchai must be a communist Chinese troll to state that Hong Kong has never been better than Singapore and never will be.

At least somebody gets it!

It’s not about freedoms. It’s about a commitment to capitalism. If the perception is that capital in HK can be seized by the Mainland, then it is all over. There’s a reason Mainlanders want their money in assets outside China... because they know this devil all too well. The ChiComs are more nefarious than the Soviets ever were.

If anyone is interested, AppleDaily has recently just started their English division... you can download the app and there will be English content when you tap English on the top right corner

Obviously not everyone agrees with you. The recent inflow of currency into Hong Kong has resulted in the HKMA selling the local currency at a record pace to prevent the dollar becoming overvalued. So move your hard earned money out, you’ll be doing the reserve bank a favor.

"Ah, but China will (probably) become like Singapore which has:
No freedom of speech
No freedom of assembly
No free press
No independent judiciary
No free and fair elections
A very efficient secret police keeping dissent in check
Banned all weapons. Get caught with a firearm and you will face the hangman's noose. ( hence no gun crime )"

I can see why "kittyy" started a new ID for that post - they'll be waiting for him/her at Changi (both facilities) when next he/she transits..................

Luckily, Trump voters have a short attention span. They seem to be perfectly happy with a few angry tweets and some theatrical speeches.

My bet is he already moved on, there will be no real actions. Nobody cares about Hong Kong in the US anyway.

Just check the actual progress of his other big projects, e.g. the Mexican Wall or North Korea. All talk.