If you think that little snippet changes out of seniority redundancy, I’ve got a bridge to sell you. Why are so many junior pilots eager to trample on the careers of their seniors?

Thank you. Yes. I don’t know how long you’ve been here, if you are indeed employed by CX, however this doesn’t tell us anything we didn’t know already.
Forgive me; if I were a scalphunter or a bean counter ( I’m not ) the last thing I’d be doing is recovering guys to HK from a base, reinstate or indeed commence expat benefits, only to lay them off 3 months later. I know airlines are honours’ graduates in pissing away cash, however, this will not fly in any scenario. So, simplistic views aside, we have no leverage, no real protections and they’ll do wtf they want. And there’s not a whole lot we can do about it. Just pray it ain’t your turn in the barrel. And buy a bigger crash helmet.
All that said they have, so far, not gone for the nuclear option. And I’m as surprised as the next man. Such is the dichotomy that is CX.

Globo, good assessment btw. I suggest that the nuclear option is coming. They are simply tinkering with the fuses at the moment...! Sadly, the arrangements on the bases are almost certainly going to be either extended, or more likely, closed altogether. The economics no longer favour the bases, and the company certainly isn't going to continue with the arrangement as it currently exists. As for HK, have been told that this week or next will reveal the bigger picture. It is hard to imagine that CX will not use this crisis to clear away several of the aspects of our contracts that they have been targeting for decades. Certainly what i've been told suggests big changes to come. The initial reaction to Covid is what has plunged us all into crisis, but the bigger problem is the domino effect on the world economy, and then the "fear factor" that has now been ingrained into peoples psyche, something that will prevent a return to "normal" for a very long time. This is not like prior crises. This is an epochal reset in human history.

It does not help that many nations' plans have been feckless. Destroying the economic engine that supports everything else. Including medical care.

It's like a doctor saying "Hey--I've got a cure for the flu. We just shoot the patient !"

Oh, you must be one of those tinfoil hat conservatives who thinks we should not listen to medical doctors as experts in all things... social science, economics, public policy, etc. If the epidemiologists say keep the world shut, we must blindly follow because we are science based, moral people of goodness. You capitalists don’t care about human lives, only the mighty dollar to line your slimy pockets of greed. Nevermind that poverty from this global depression will kill millions and create misery for many more. We saved people from the dreaded Chinese Origin VIrus Disease - 19. Soon, we will go back to our fundraisers and cocktail parties and congratulate ourselves for how virtuous and righteous we are. Off to the next misguided cause in which we can save a select few at the expense of the rest of the world.

To the people who say bases are dead, whilst this is possible, it is unlikely.
Those of you employed by CX are able to view the seniority list to see the position on the list of based pilots.
It is not hard to work out, that the crew on a base are generally more senior, and were they to be based in HK, would cost the company significantly more, courtesy of various allowances such as: housing, travel, education etc.
CX are clearly trying to preserve cash.
They clearly know that crew on the bases are saving them plenty of money.
In the short term, having had the based pilots lead the pay cuts by example, I think they will then approach the hk pilots first, then cabin crew, and finally the ground staff.
My thoughts are it will be a mix of asking guys to retire (with possible decent $ incentives), more voluntary unpaid leave, and if insufficient pilots take it up, then standby for a one size fits all common COS20 with some grandfathering (time limited) for housing and HKPA reduced, or a simple 20% pay cut for those barely working, be prepared to be asked to accept a greater cut. Note the % cut the directors took. Unlikely to be greater - unless you were unlucky and were based in Aus!
With the pilots out of the way, and as many will see COS20 as a bridge too far and leave, numbers for a leaner crew compliment will fit the start up plan. Then the Cabin Crew will also be easy to reduce in numbers as they scramble over each other to keep a job by signing up for whatever cost saving deal is offered.
That just leaves the hardest of all - the groundstaff - but, having seen the worldwide based pilots, followed by hk pilots, then cabin crew suffer cuts, they'll know they have to toe the line and accept.

Should all be tied up and signed off in 4-6 weeks, just as a very slow recovery starts.
A new lean lower cost base cx will be well placed to make monstrous profits in 9-12 months time as aviation starts a slow steady resurgence.

Well longtime. If that is the scenario it’s one of the more optimistic ones I’ve seen yet !!

If one looks at the command courses alone that are still planned for this year,?that alone indicates to me they are unlikely to be cutting huge numbers of crew. I won't deny they would like cheaper crew, and in simplistic terms, a new captain is cheaper than a 17+yr Captain on the top scale. I'm sure creative ways have been looked at, in how to circumvent the LIFO aspect in our COS. Time will tell, and the next 4-6?weeks will be interesting to say the least.
Good luck boys and girls and those inbetween - whatever you call yourselves these days.

Grazie. Although I’ve not been called a boy in a long time.

The dilemma for CX is that if they massively reduce their pilot numbers, they have NO option of rapid expansion in the future.
A laid off pilot in USEUROAUSNZ etc will get a barista/truck driver job in situ and will jump at the opportunity to return to the pilot ranks as it is an easy transition.
The expat (although on local terms) pilot in CX has to relocate back to home country, set up a new life for family etc, and then become barista/driver.
When/if CX want them back it is not a simple transition back to HK. If they keep the bases open, that might make it easier, but then there is the flood of whoever remained in HK onto the bases before new hires. Catch 44!!
There is no incentive for an expat pilot to stay in HK if they are let go, thereby there is no pilot base in HK to rapidly re-hire. Yes there will be many out of work pilots in the world chomping at the bit to work for CX for minimal wage, but the recruiting/screening/visa/intl move/licensing/training issue Will create significant lag and the opportunity may indeed be lost again....
Lots of negativity in this thread, what ever happened to “sitting on your hands”?

Farman, I believe you are looking at this back to front. Firstly, the bases aren't economical (I won't go into the minutia of why, but you can be certain that for a whole host of reasons, they are not, and i've had that explained to me at the highest level). As for the command courses, not too hard to understand why: CX is planning on a large exit of quite senior people. To be replaced by more junior ranks on much lower pay and conditions. You can be certain that the deal we enjoy in HK now is about to come to an end (there will be a fairly short notice period (24 months) for those on ARAPA, and everyone can expect COS18 (or worse) beyond that. As for worrying about the cost of "attracting people back to HK when things pick up". CX will have thousands of desperate people willing to show up in HK the very next day to take a job. They will hardly worry about the grounded ex-CX pilots how may demure. I take no pleasure in stating these scenarios, but it is best if people plan based on reality. "Hope" is not a strategy. "Sitting on your hands" is probably the very best suggestion overall. Btw, I sincerely pray I am dead wrong on every single thing discussed here.

mm, normally I read your posts with at least some degree of interest, but today you lost me as soon as you said: "...I've had that explained to me at the highest level."

I know a handful of pilots who are always running up to the 3rd or 9th floor to get the latest goss. You are obviously one of them, so good on you. The bit you don't understand is that the highest level enjoys feeding you with info to take back to the masses.

I'll ignore the rather impertinent swipe. I've laid out what I know, in as much clarity as I am able without compromising the confidences entrusted to me from "friends". You can take my comments as you wish. I have very little love for anything to do with our current management, and I certainly don't need to be ashamed of what i've done over the years to support the profession. We'll see if my cautions prove correct or not. Ad hominem attacks are rather unbecoming...

I think that your choice of “handle” rather invites ad hominem attacks. Sadly. Perhaps change it to “Gerald” ?

Ignore my impertinent swipe if you wish, but then don't mention it in your last sentence!

I agree that ad hominem attacks are unbecoming; questioning someone's source isn't.

I think the scraping of ARAP with grandfathering for a period is possible as it is policy, but how can one be forced onto COS18 without individual agreement?

I think suggesting I "run up to the 3rd or 9th floor" is certainly an ad hominem attack. That isn't "questioning the source", it's impeaching the source. Ergo, an ad hominem attack. But you know that. Why not focus on the main point of my comments. There are plans to attack our pay and conditions. They may or may not come to pass. My conclusion is that there is no escaping the reality of our situation, and the company will not miss the opportunity to radically change the dynamics of their cost structure. It's a "rumour" network, hence....rumours. If you disagree with my comments, fine. Try not to make it personal though, ok OK.

BrownNose. In 1999, the company simply gave us 7 days to either accept our new reduced contract, or resign (be fired effectively). As a point of debate, what is stopping them from doing so again. Certainly, under HK labour law, they have wide latitude in their action under "force majeure" conditions, and I certainly think they would be on safe ground claiming that at the moment.

did they fire the ones that didn’t sign?

If you didn't return a signed contract to the company, your employment was terminated. You had the choice to voluntarily resign, with a payout based on a formula. One or two of my friends chose that option. You could not just ignore the package and not submit a choice. No choice meant no job after 7 days.