I don't think it will take the company 'announcing' bases are done to start at least a small exodus. I agree that they will never outright say they are done b/c a lot will leave, however, I personally believe that their silence speaks volumes. Their lack of communication regarding this to me says it all.

In the US alone, you have a once in a lifetime tidal wave of retirements beginning coupled with airlines like DAL looking at new contracts relatively soon. If AMR/USAir happens it will be pegged to DAL rates. It would easily be worth it to leave CX even after 10 years here to be at the beginning of that type of wave from a $$ and lifestyle perspective. Sure, upgrade times may be similar but would you rather be senior in your seat in the US with a free commute and short trips, or pay for your commute to do an 11 day pattern that you have no say in?

And finally, please those that take their retirement money as cash.....please stop counting it as salary. It is not. I hear all the time that we get paid in accordance with other US majors. We do not. We get paid relatively similar if you INCLUDE our 15.5%. Don't forget that most US majors offer anywhere from 10-16% B-plans/401K match as well in addition to their salaries.

You are all right guys, bases will never be closed. In fact, they are so happy with bases that they haven't offered any in 2 YEARS. That is two years of housing and education they could have saved on several pilots.

Cathay are so happy with bases that they even put a workgroup together to find out how to get more pilots on bases. We should know the results of this workgroup soon. That will be the official line from management every few months. Maybe the workgroup was put together to offer pilots incentives to take bases, like housing or 13th month. Yeah, that's it. You heard it here first. :rolleyes:

You can burry your head in the sand all day long, does not really affect me. But if I was on a base with no intent of being HKG based, I would be updating my logbook and doing research on the web into suitable options. :hmm:

So, to summarise:

We are firmly divided into two camps. Those on a base believe there will always be bases and those in HKG firmly believe bases will be closed.

That about right?

Bases are finished. Done. End of the line.

The *only* issue left to resolve is how to bring everyone back at minimum cost and minimal loss. The final nail in the coffin was the (unsuccessful) 777 JFK base opening discussions.

A close mate had JS visit the FD, he was asked about Basings.
JS said they will keep Basings, they save money and keep the crews happy and most importantly help retain crew.

So, if the big boss wants them then.........

He does not want the bases but he does want to keep the existing crew, so he will not rock the boat for now. But expect a reduction in base establishment. If freighter crews leave because they do not wish to re-locate there will be little pain to the company, since freighters will soon be parked.

The company are already putting in place the local conditions under which all future pilots will be employed. In 15 years time todays recruits will be Captains on local terms so the cost of housing is a diminishing problem.

I would not work for CX on local terms, but some may not have an option. Opportunities in Europe are limited by a stagnant economy so CX may be the best an aspiring pilot can get.

But looking on the bright side............................................errrmmm

It will be interesting to see what developes as the year progresses. It is my belief they will want to keep the option of basings open but quietly let some(Australia, in particular) naturally reduce in numbers. At least until the long service leave and other headache issues are sorted out in Australia.

And, of course, they will still be able to tell people at interviews that the basings option does exist. A bit like the 2 years as S/o and 10 years to command spiel being put forward recently.

For those wanting an Australian base in the future, you may have a very long wait.

If they are closing the basings, why would they be building a new crew hotel behind the AOA Building across the road from Cathay City?

It is not only cockpit crew that use the headland hotel.

There is plenty of cabin crew demand, engineers and outport staff coming in for training, let alone the odd boondoggle of a conference to fill it up.

Well, for one they just recently delayed/cancelled those plans. But even if they did revisit it, it's because:

1) They're recruiting cabin crew, like mad, in 3rd world countries
2) Rest can be reduced to 10 hours if company provided accommodation is provided in HK, and
3) They've got a lot of crew left on the bases to wither on the wine.

I know this is a ridiculous idea, but could any of you offer some defense of your opinions/rumors besides citing a friend of a mate talked to a bloke that had a flight with Slosar. How about using some numbers? Maybe past company behaviors?

Here are some relevant questions regarding the issue:

1. Why has CX had zero base openings in several years?
2. Is CX getting new joiners?
3. Is the global supply/demand of pilots in balance for the future?

1. The global economic slowdown has caused formerly uninterested governments to look for ways to boost revenue. CX has fallen victim to this and has been forced to adjust its old model of outsourcing bases. Rather than continue to add to bases that they are unsure of how to manage; they have wisely decided to install a moratorium. Meanwhile, HKG is still within their control and they still need pilots so they continue to staff HKG.

2. Yes. I am not debating quality, merely quantity. They are coming on sub-standard terms to boot.

3. Yes and no. While the global supply of qualified pilots has been on the decline relative to slightly increasing demand, CX are getting around this by hiring people and training them to be pilots. Additionally, they can always hire from other airlines that fold a la Oasis. The fact remains that CX is getting people to join. Counter to that is the relatively small number leaving, which is planned.