...a LOT lower. Believe me, this is the most profound economic dislocation you will ever experience in your lifetimes. Nothing to date will compare to what's to come. If you have EQUITY in your home, sell NOW. A year from now you will be sitting on 40 - 60% percent losses. Come back in a year and see who is right (..and I will be the first to say I hope i'm wrong...!!).

The property market is of course vulnerable.

But in recent times, unlike 97, it has not been the domain of speculators. There was more return on the stock markets for gambling.

The figures for outright home ownership in Hong Kong are staggering if you are from the West. The fact that most of the remainder have less than 6 years to run on their mortgage equally staggering.

Mortgage stress seems to be a Western phenomenon brought on my high consumption and borrowings.

A modest to moderate correction is my prediction. I have a feeling Hong Kong property may be as safe as houses......

My HSBC valuation hasn't changed???? Confirmed by phone. Not that this means much.

No Speculators in the property market?

Ok how does a property go from 11mil to 14 in two months?

Now it is going from 14 mil to 11 mil in one week!

The top end of the market is only about speculators!

9 mill to 7.3 in 5 weeks...:{

I think you are confusing speculation with how the Chinese do business.

Where do you guys have property? I can't get these negative valuations. I don't doubt them. Just wondering.

Yep. You are stuffed mate.

Would you take 5 million? :)

Maybe too late now that for that price.
If your place is nice I might be able to offer 2.2m, but that would be a stretch since I've lost a helluvalot in this market crash. Think bell curve.

difference in HKG is that instead of going from prop to shares and back as each performs better or worse here in asia investors tend to gear up property and use the cash to invest in Shares. Or gear up on shares to invest in property so if the share market or property stumbles they are forced to sell to keep their head above the water, hence the volitility in this market in comparison to a western country. I can't think of anywhere else that has commercial prop investors refusing tenants and leaving buildings empty because the volatility is such they would rather be in a position to cut and run than have tenants returning income. Crazy

From The Economic Times yesterday:

These godlike predictions by companies that are probably
bankrupt themselves.Perhaps an ex Lehman Bros analyst could
reply with his predictions on hong kong property. Its all a crock!

My 2 cents worth....

It is interesting to note that the owner occupier allowance increased for the month of OCT. So the HK housing index has not been affected yet... Also interesting to note that only the variable rate increased and not the fixed, I thought the variable was a percentage of the fixed amount?

So when will the housing index decrease?

Personally my apartments valuation has dropped 5-8% over the last two weeks. As for selling, sure it will be nice to walk away with a heap of cash. I'm still trying to sell for the right price, but I guess for myself that will have to wait another 5-10 years. If one is able to sell for the right amount then take the cash and reinvest when the market is more stable, one will be able to buy into a larger apartment and have a fist full of cash! Cant sell for what you want, personally I'd hold onto it.

If you dont think the market is going down, you are in denial. Read the newspaper, have a look at some real estate web sites, it's easy to see that the market has slowed down, and prices have already begun to slide.

At the end of the day we all need a place to live, but I would suggest to those looking to buy now to put buying on hold until the market is more stable next year. Just my opinion, but make sure you make yourself as well informed as you can before buying, on everything.

Good luck

The allowance is based on rents (D&E Class rental index) not property values.

The latest report on the rvd website indicates that the rental index has come off about 3 points, or about 2%, so expect the allowance to come down about HKD1500 next month.

My advice is to take what you can now. This is only the beginning, as much as I would love for it to be otherwise!
The world of finance has no real (physical) value to support the paper credits the banking system has been issuing to create credit to offer to the population in return for promises to repay them at credit rate + interest or in default 90% of the value of their home - a value only provided by them in colusion with other bankers based on their own paper valuation based on their own flawed credit system.
This whole system is corrupt and based on the banks only holding a maximum 10% of the assets that they promise to pay in lieu of the credit they promise you. IE. YOU PAY INTEREST ON ON MONEY THEY LEND YOU THAT IN FACT THEY DO NOT HOLD!!!!... You do the math. SERIOUSLY. THEY DO NOT HAVE TO HOLD ASSETS WORTH ANY MORE THAN 10% OF THE BOOK VALUE OF CREDIT THAT THET EXTEND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The only winners are the bankers at the top of the legal pyramid scheme who have been skimming massive bonuses fron you and me Based on nothing but paper profits on only (if only!!) 10% of the assets that they actually hold.
Legal criminals, and backed by the government who are bailing out the calls on those funds that they do not hold. Why?? Because the governmnt are one and the same. Criminals who have way too much to lose!
GET OUT NOW!!!!

Most rentals are on a two year cycle so it will be a while before the rental market drops. In fact it will be in a strange situation where the house prices drop but rental initially (and the housing allowance) stay high for 6-12 months. Then I think the rental allowance will then come back strongly to the low 50's..................