Asian Pilot Shortage
 

Asia's skills shortage
Capturing talent

Aug 16th 2007 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
Despite its booming economies and huge numbers of people, Asia is suffering a big shortage of skills. And it is about to get worse



Imaginechinahttps://www.economist.com/images/20070818/3307BB1.jpg
IT SEEMS odd. In the world's most populous region the biggest problem facing employers is a shortage of people. Asia has more than half the planet's inhabitants and is home to many of the world's fastest-growing economies. But some businesses are being forced to reconsider just how quickly they will be able to grow, because they cannot find enough people with the skills they need.
In a recent survey, 600 chief executives of multinational companies with businesses across Asia said a shortage of qualified staff ranked as their biggest concern in China (see chart 1) and South-East Asia. It was their second-biggest headache in Japan (after cultural differences) and the fourth-biggest in India (after problems with infrastructure, bureaucracy and wage inflation). Across almost every industry and sector it was the same.
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Old Asia-hands may find it easy to understand why there is such concern. The region's rapid economic growth has fished out the pool of available talent, they would say. But there is also a failure of education. Recent growth in many parts of Asia has been so great that it has rapidly transformed the type of skills needed by businesses. Schools and universities have been unable to keep up.
Taking wing

This is especially true for professional staff. Airlines are one example. With increasing deregulation, many new carriers are setting up and airlines are offering more services to meet demand. But there is a dreadful shortage of pilots. According to Alteon Training, the commercial-pilot training arm of Boeing, India has fewer than 3,000 pilots today but will need more than 12,000 by 2025. China will need to find an average of 2,200 new pilots a year just to keep up with the growth in air travel, which means it will need more than 40,000 pilots by 2025. In the meantime, with big international airlines training only a few hundred pilots a year, Asian airlines have taken to poaching them, often from each other. Philippine Airlines, for instance, lost 75 pilots to overseas airlines during the past three years. China has been trying to lure pilots from Brazil, among other places.

Similar problems are bedevilling the legal profession...

The article goes on from there. Think CX and others will have to pay more eventually?

M

A similar situation existed when I first went to asia in the mid-seventies.
SQ was extremely short of B707 Commanders, and was offering a reasonable salary, but was loosing some guys to the mid-east, where the salaries were higher.
This forced SQ to raise the starting pay, but they were still behind the eight ball as regards crew numbers, especially later on, on the 747.

Most airline companies management can't reasonably plan beyond next Tuesday, never mind longer.

Heeeeeeeeeee's Baaaaaaaaaack !!!!!!!

Needless to say, 411A, SQ is still behind in "legacy" carriers' rates of pay. :eek:

2 Things.

1. If you already work for one of the better paying airlines you will not get more cash cause there is a so called shortage. Airlines like CX do not have a lack of applicants - if they are short in crew its due to bad planning. The shortage exists down the line with the smaller companies that don't pay and therefore lose guys. So if you work for Phillipine Airlines you might be in for a payrise. If you work for CX there's nothing that prevents them from giving you a paycut - and still get all the Filipino Pilots to apply.... ( this is an example only )

2. Pilot shortages will eventually be eradicated by huge cadet schemes. These cadets will be signed up for cheap long contracts and will fill all the slots in future. Ie. once again it will do nothing to improve your conditions cause a local cadet with a big bond/low starting salary/no housing and education allowance will cost the company a lot less over a 25 year career than an expat ever will.

So dream on if you think a pilot shortage will help you if you already work for a major well paying company.

DEC Emirates
 

Not trying to start trouble with my EK friends, but thought I would point out an interesting comparison. If you started with EK as a DEC tomorrow, you would be 10% worse off over 10 years than if you stayed in CX(assuming you got your command today). This assumes neither airline gives any payrises over the next 10 years. Historically, EK has received over 40% in payrises over the last 5 years whilst CX has received none. Taking out the rather large recent payrise, EK have averaged around 5-6% a year.

Of course if you started with EK today as an FO vs joining CX as an SO, you would be 28% better off in career earnings after 10 years than in CX. That was based on a CX command after 9 years which is probably no longer valid.

Not suggesting you jump ship - my friend Donpizmeov says the grass is browner everywhere;-) But it does show how the mighty CX money making machine has fallen to being less competitive than EK.

Aviation- its just a job!

Pilot shortage? We must be due for a recession then!
:eek:

WRONG!! When there is rapid expansion/growth..airlines need qualified pilots= expats!

Cadet training costs huge amounts,and there is never a guarantee that these lads+girls will stay on after their bonds are paid off..ESPECIALLY in asia where many of these cadets are university grads (unofficial requirement to join the CX scheme!!),,and have many other options available to them..

I know of at least 2 captains (local) who are in the process of applying to airlines further afield..YES..FOR THE MONEY!!Not to mention cadet SO's who recently joined Oasis in order to upgrade earlier...

Furthermore..there are legal implications and constraints as to how much/what companies are allowed to charge regarding training bonds...

The one and only way to alleviate pilot shortages in HIGH demand times,is to pay HIGH salaries,and throw in incentives..:ok:

the South America driver very keen to working here, the numbers continue to grow:hmm:

Slapfaan - I really hope you are right about the cadet scheme thing - however what I have seen at all the Chinese airlines as well as Malaysian etc supports what I just said. And by the way - check out where Qantas plans to get their future pilots from - they are building a huge flight school.
Either way - my first point still stands. As soon as Cathay gives a decent pay rise due to a shortage I will consider myself truly shot down and retract my statement.

EK will have to increase pay if they hope to get enough "experienced" pilots to crew their expanding fleet, including 53 A380s. Many pilots will also have the opportunity to keep flying until age 65.

SIC

Just to clarify how the cadet scheme in CX works and how current recruitment is going.

1. CX pays the training costs for all cadets. About 36 per year.
2. Cadets “CAN NOT” be bonded by CX in HK after their training as evidenced by two cadets who after returning from Adelaide recently put in their resignation to CX. They had been offered a better deal with another local airline.
3. The flying school in Adelaide is severely constrained by a huge shortage of flying instructors in Australia. The pilot shortage in Australia is now approaching a critical stage with all sectors now starting to have difficulty attracting suitably qualified candidates.
4. Unlike what you may have heard, CX does have a severe problem with the number of suitably qualified candidates applying for the cadet scheme and direct entry positions. The number of people failing to show up for interviews is running at unsustainable levels. They have better offers elseware.
5. QF makes money out of their cadet scheme by charging for the training. The only reason QF is starting up their own flying school is they can see a buck in it. It is questionable though whether it will help their recruitment problems and whether they will be able to find the suitably qualified people in the current climate to run the school.

Asia
 

There must therefore be a future for 70 year old FIs !

SIC said ... "2. Pilot shortages will eventually be eradicated by huge cadet schemes. These cadets will be signed up for cheap long contracts and will fill all the slots in future. Ie. once again it will do nothing to improve your conditions cause a local cadet with a big bond/low starting salary/no housing and education allowance will cost the company a lot less over a 25 year career than an expat ever will."

Ahh, I hate to shoot down your theory, but do you know how long the Cadet program takes to pump out a qualified (and I use the term loosely) airline pilot? There is too much lag in that program to help out with any shortages today. As someone already pointed out, if there is a shortage TODAY, then the only option is to poach and recriut qualified applicants TODAY, not ones that will be qualified in a few years.

The Cadet program is a politically fueled system that greases some pamls somewhere along the buracratic chain. If CX wanted an all cadet airlne they could have done it a long time ago. The accountants might want that, but there are barriers to achieving that, otherwise it would have happened already.

Make no mistake, we (as well as most airlines arround the world) are scraping the proverbial barrel for applicants. Think of it as sucking soda through a straw. The glass is almost empty, but we are still getting some fluid through the straw...its just the fluid that's been sitting around the bottom of the glass. The problem is that more money doesn't fill the glass back up, it just tilts the glass so you get more fluid through your straw while other straws run dry (for example, mainland china carriers).

So, if you are Cathay management, what do you do? Do you wait until the glass is empty to tilt it in your direction, or do you do it now and get all the qualified applicants you can. You also have to keep in mind that Cathay is now also dealing with higher than normal attrition. Why else would they have offered A SCALE to retain the top of the list? That is a last ditch attempt before they have to reach desperate measures.

My words were " eventually" I am still convinced that in the long run companies in Asia want to recruit and employ asians and not expats. This will be done through huge cadet schemes. You are obviously right about the current need for pilots - but that is a transient situation. In twenty years time I will be very surprised if the same situation prevails.
And I am still standing by for the pay rise caused due to pilot shortage...:hmm:

Refer to my first post above. Either way time will tell - and I hope I am wrong - cause If I am right this career is on its way to become even less attractive than it currently is.

404 Titan
 

Gee, . . . I bet that if the pay for flight instructors were raised you would magically find all sorts of qualified, well experienced, instructor pilots come out of the woodworks, especially retired airline pilots. It's all about money, because these retired chaps wouldn't be interested in "building hours." :ooh:

The above might be true for the current CX cadet scheme, but I've got this feeling that the management might want to shift their cadet scheme closer to the SQ or CI model (look at the new HKID requirements that was announced by NR a few weeks back). For SQ and CI, they train about 200 to 300 cadets a year through multiple flying schools. These guys jump keep pumping pilots out like crazy, albert I have no idea about the quality of their cadet graduates, but SQ and CI cadet scheme allows them to hire majority of their pilot via the cadet and minimal amount of pilot hires each year as expat.

bus

This scheme is now open to "anybody who holds a valid HKID.."

My filipina domestic helper has just submitted her online application..and if she doesn't make it in..plans to sue for GENDER discrimination under new laws heading this way...;)

Well Faan - had to laugh - untill I realized its not actually funny. Especially since flying is so easy these days with autopilots and glass cockpits you know. Soon they will lower the minimum IQ requirement like the US Army had to....

"Especially since flying is so easy these days with autopilots and glass cockpits you know. Soon they will lower the minimum IQ requirement like the US Army had to.... "

...tell that to TAM, or to China Airlines, or to Comair, or to...I don't know, who else has bent metal recently operating one of these "easy to fly" airplanes? :rolleyes:

Don't get me wrong, I love my computer, I use it everyday. But I'm not sure if my life is easier now than it was before I ever owned one. :hmm:

Sqwak7700,

I suggest the time it takes the Cadet program to 'pump out a qualified airline pilot', however 'loosely' you are using that term, is the length of the Cadet programme plus however long it is until any individual passes his/her initial JFO line check.

Please kindly tell me how long you think it takes.

GURU - good point, well presented. Deserves an answer.

You want to know the time from Cadet to JFO? I think this probably takes ages at CX but quicker at other airlines. This is probably due to the fact that CX keep their S/O for like 3 years (probably to save the company money on long haul). I think Dragon Air cadets are all flying qualify S/O after their cadet training and training in HK. After another year or so as an S/O, they become F/O (I donno do they have JFO or not). I think it is similar at SQ and CI.

Why would KA have S/O's? They fly as F/O's surely.

An excuse to pay them less of course!!! Why do we have JFOs?

I doubt Dragon has SO's - they don't do ULH. Their cadets essentially go straight into the right seat as FO's with 200 hours TT. And they seem to be fine despite little experience. Same at CAL, Malaysia and most Mainland Airlines with regional fleets. SO is something Cathay makes a guy do to save $$$ on ULH.
Which brings me back to my prediction that this career is doomed by cadet schemes/ MPL etc etc etc :{

Dragon do have SO's but are much luckier in that they get a complete type rating and do an FO's job.

Well that would make him an FO then. Silly semantics causing guys to get SO pay for FO job I imagine. Kinda reminds me of that other evil - A vs B scale.:}

SIC,
I don't want to generalise but there is an awful lot of anecdotal evidence from KA skippers to suggest the KA s/o's are not all fine.

SO in KA is a rank - not a crew position. SO promotes to JFO after a a period of time and the requisite ability, and et seq to FO. The only differnece is the pay, the number of stripes on the shoulder and the crosswind limits. All get to fly the aircraft, but (as alluded) to varying levels of skill due to corresponding experience.

Well there you have it!! All semantics!!

And here I was always thinking that if you ONLY have two guys in the cockpit one is the Cpt and one is the FO. If these companies truly want to move into the 21 century with regards to CRM and cockpit gradients maybe the silly titles should go sometime. Nowhere else do you wear your payscale on your shoulder like here. The only thing that one stripe is good for is to lose the respect of the passengers it is supposed to get and than help you to confuse people around the airport building into thinking you are the assistant to the security guard or something....:p

With regards to cadets - I don't think it is a great way to get into the game either - and have done enough flying with guys like that to see many of them shy away from a crosswind. But their ability is not the point. The fact that their existence threatens the value of this career is the point I have been making since this thread started.

SIC, so you don't think its a great way to get into the game as a cadet huh? Yes I'd agree with you, I'd much rather live near an airfield where I can watch airplanes take off and land all day, where I can pay AUD100 to fly for an hour or even better, have a father who owns a Cessna so I can fly it everyday, building my experience from when I'm 16 years old and be surrounded by a developed Aviation environment.
But do you see that around Asia?
If you knew anything about Asia you would know that there is very little to no general aviation in many countries here. Even if there is a flying club, they are mostly set up to cater for the "rich" and "upper circle" so they can impress their model girlfriends on weekends....(would YOU be able to afford a PPL course at HKD2500/hour when you were 16??)
My point is, there are very few chances for most of the people in Asia to get into Aviation and a cadetship is very probably their ONLY chance to fly. The areas which need most pilots now, China and India, are prime examples. I'm so sorry for devaluing "your" career, but from what you're saying, are you suggesting that all cadetships should be stopped so this career can remain an expat monopoly and therefore keep the wages high?

How do you know?

Underpaid and undertrained. It is now a requirement that upgrading Dragonair Captains have an SO in their two day simulator evalulation- using a conventional First Officer has been deemed too advantageuos. :uhoh:

Somedays, in China and in Dragonair, having a Second Officer in the RHS can be pressing.

Hey iMad - relax!
I never ever implied that its about protecting expat jobs. There are more expat jobs now than ever before. Its about a cheapening of the profession.
The rot started years ago in the west with low cost airlines too. All I am concerned about - and if you make the effort to look at my other posts around pprune you'll see - is that cadets are being exploited by the airlines as cheap labour. In other words - I am on your side mate.
Go practise your crosswinds on that 330 sim till you cool off.

Oh and by the way I think you will find that the VAST MAJORITY of us worked our asses off and prostituted ourselves to shady operators in the bush/outback/northpole/Congo-(which I found particularly bad) for years while paying of loans to get where we are. Kinda slightly harder than having CX/ KA pay it all for you while you run around Adelaide chasing ugly chicks and sleeping in a warm ( CX/KA paid for ) bed.

So you see - actually not having general aviation in Asia saved you a lot of effort!!!!:ok:

SIC, I have ZERO intention of turning this into an EXPAT vs CADET argument. I didn't exactly sit around waiting for a cadetship to happen, but that's another story, let's keep this civil alright?
I know you've had to prostitute yourself, and work your axx off.... for some shady operator to get to where you are now, I respect that. I also respect your ability to operate an aircraft. I respect your experience. But my point is that at least you had the CHANCE to build that experience. Given the chance I'm sure a lot of Asians would do the same. The problem is we can't even afford to start! Go try and tell some Mainland Chinese or Indian whose family is struggling to feed themselves properly that they should spend 500K on getting their son a CPL. Even if they wanted to borrow the money to do so they won't be able to.
Try put yourself into the shoe of a low-income family in HK, you're the 21-year old son who dreams of flying one day, but you cannot afford to fly in HK (or anywhere else for that matter), what would YOU do? Would you say "oh if I joined CX as a cadet I would be undermining the efforts of all those expats to raise their salaries cos by hiring me CX will be saving housing costs, so I guess I better not join and give up this life-long dream."?
1. I'm not on a bond. 2. My starting salary is the same as yours.
So I'm cheap labour? I'm on the same contract as you. What makes me cheap labour? Yes I don't get housing, I'm from Hong Kong, I expected it, but hey don't get me wrong, if the company wants to give me housing I wouldn't mind. I just resent the fact that you keep on saying I'm cheap labour. Do Qantas/BA cadets get housing? Do you get housing on a base? Why am I the cheap labour who undercuts YOUR salaries when the only difference is that I don't get housing because I'm from HK?
call me lazy but I don't research all threads.... all I've seen on THIS thread is you ridiculing us about crosswind landings and how my "existence threatens the value of this career" ..The cadet scheme has been running for nearly 20 years, do you really think your career is doomed?

iMad,
I'm afraid in a lot of people's minds, the difference between an ex-cadet and an expat pilot goes beyond whether we receive a housing allowance or not. Please refer to Sqwak7700's post earlier in this thread. Not only do we have to pass the line checks and management reviews, we ex-cadets must also work that extra little bit to be PERCEIVED as being 'qualified' pilots.

Sqwak7700?

Guru,
So sad, so true....

Imad

I don't see why you insist on viewing my posts as an attack on cadets. I have no issues with the guys - I have issues with airlines who abuse this system.
Admit I have been a bit sarcastic - but I also stated often that I have no beef with the abilities of different pilot groups due to their background experience - so take the crosswind thing as a bad joke.
CX is unique in paying its cadets the same salaries as the expat employees. If you look at most other Asian companies the local guys get screwed and the expats generally get more money.
So once again - to make this very clear - I think that cadet programs will become bigger and bigger in future. In Asia they will allow Asian airlines to employ their own people at a reduced rate. And this will happen in the west too - Qantas is apparently going to build a huge flight school.
And no matter what people say a cadet signed up when fairly young will give a company more years of service and cost less than a guy who came through the traditional way ever will. One of the main killers of the A scale was the fact that guys were signing up younger ( more years of service = more time to make the pot you need for retirement) than the traditional 35 year old ex air force guy. SO the point is cadet schemes and hiring very young low time guys puts pressure on to reduce salaries and conditions.
As mentioned before I HOPE I AM WRONG. I am only stating what I perceive to be the way airlines would like things to become i.t.o pilot recruitment.

This industry is faced by many issues that reduce the value of a pilot. Cadet schemes as mentioned, low cost carriers as mentioned and last but not least simple greed. Saw a news story a while ago about an american airline ( Delta, AA or United ) paying their CEO 40 mil in bonuses right after they came out of chapter 11. At the same time their profit for the year was 26 mil. And all their staff were still on 35% reduced salaries with frozen pension funds since 9/11.
Company directors on average these days earn 400 times what the average employee makes - this was only 40 times twenty years ago. This goes on everywhere - not just airlines. The unique thing with aviation is that it is the only industry that actually sells most of its product ( econ tickets ) at below cost and make their profits off cutting their employees benefits.....

"Not only do we have to pass the line checks and management reviews, we ex-cadets must also work that extra little bit to be PERCEIVED as being 'qualified' pilots"

Well, at least I cadets gett 6 months right-seat time before they start their command course in an airplane they haven't flown. Meanwhile, expat pilots go straight into the flames. :rolleyes:

SIC: Valid points, all taken!!