Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

Exit Strategies

Old 1st Nov 2021, 11:58
  #41 (permalink)  
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 44
"Some" money maybe, don't know about "the" money.
Busbuoy is offline  
Old 1st Nov 2021, 12:17
  #42 (permalink)  
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Bottom of the Harbour
Posts: 302
Reading this thread is like watching the anchor chain being pulled up on a cargo ship, with refugees holding on to it…

Any semblance of dignity has evaporated with this airline and the pilots have now become a low cost skill.

Engineers are better qualified.
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Old 1st Nov 2021, 12:30
  #43 (permalink)  
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: LA
Posts: 150
Quick fact check from most UK HGV websites.

"The starting salary for an HGV driver is [/color]between £19,000 and £24,000[color=#202124] and can climb to as high as £45,000. The average for HGV drivers tends to be between £30,000 and £40,000, depending on which company you work for and how far you drive."

Average per year = $318K - $425K HKD BEFORE tax. Hardly the big bucks.
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Old 1st Nov 2021, 13:09
  #44 (permalink)  
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: one country, one system
Age: 53
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Yes, but consider the fascinating work, the family-friendly hours and the high social status that comes with it.
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Old 1st Nov 2021, 13:39
  #45 (permalink)  
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Here and Everywhere
Posts: 185
You remind me of my ex-students who got into flying as a status symbol instead of a chosen career and 99% of their personality is tied up in “being a pilot”

STW, please don’t lose your job, HK doesn’t need anymore suicides.
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Old 1st Nov 2021, 14:04
  #46 (permalink)  
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: one country, one system
Age: 53
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I certainly don't think that pilots have a particular high social status, but maybe you do?

PS Pretty tasteless reference regarding the terrible implications of suicide. But just to highlight another prejudice implied in your thought chain: against common belief Hong Kong actually has not a particular high suicide rate by international comparisons (lower than the U.S. for example)
Sam Ting Wong is offline  
Old 1st Nov 2021, 14:59
  #47 (permalink)  
Join Date: Aug 2020
Location: Wan Chai
Posts: 255
Not back to this lorry crap again. I won't go home just to drive between Blackpool and Birmingham for 400k. The M6 is pathetic enough in a car let alone a lorry.
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Old 1st Nov 2021, 16:13
  #48 (permalink)  
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Here and Everywhere
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So you don’t think being a truck driver is high social status? Judging people by their profession? Very low for you STW.

you also stated you never met a pilot with an exit strategy? What’s your definition of an exit strategy? (Waiting for a turn in the industry and applying for other jobs is an exit strategy - a basic one - yes but still a strategy)

What would you do if CX folded tomorrow, do you have a backup plan? Well to execute a backup plan, a strategy needs to be in place.

I personally don’t care about HK suicide rate but the way you’ve been conducting yourself on these forums would indicate you’re a person with a social circle of one.
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Old 1st Nov 2021, 19:41
  #49 (permalink)  
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Sunny Bay
Posts: 265
Sam Ting Wong

Well, during my stretch there I came to notice the sickening and miserable statistics around Child Suicide in Hong Kong. The details are all here:
Between 2015 and 2017 there were 70 child suicides, and many of them were 11 year olds. Jumping out windows seemed to be the commonest method. What inspires such children to kill themselves? I’d hazard a guess at the majority being related to unloving and demanding parents who reject academic failure.
So yeah, maybe you’re right and HK doesn’t have higher average suicide stats - but the age group is surely unique and abominable.
No place to raise NORMAL kids.
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Old 2nd Nov 2021, 06:57
  #50 (permalink)  
Join Date: Feb 2021
Location: reality
Posts: 35

waiting for a turn in the industry? Guess you will be here until retirement because the industry has only gone one way and that is down. The so called looming pilot shortage never eventuates, by the time it does we will be down to single pilot ops anyway.

The fact so many pilots on the bases that closed attempted to return to Hong Kong to keep their jobs makes it pretty clear that there aren’t any better alternatives.

Also, a back up plan (for if Cathay folds) is very different than an exit strategy.
noboloco is offline  
Old 2nd Nov 2021, 07:42
  #51 (permalink)  
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Hong kong
Posts: 23
Just to bring a a little fact and context to the unpleasant subject of youth suicide.
Hong Kong rate does not feature in the top 70 countries worldwide but the USA, Australia and New Zealand are unfortunately high on this list with the rate in the US being approximately 6 times that of Hong Kong. According to the UK Guardian 7% of teenagers in the UK between 15 and 19 have attempted suicide - if correct a truly horrible statistic.
I have had several children at schools in HK for the past 25 years (and still) and have only ever been aware one suicide.
veryoldchinahand is offline  
Old 2nd Nov 2021, 11:29
  #52 (permalink)  
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Here and Everywhere
Posts: 185

I don’t know what small world you live in, but the shortage was here and it will come again. You want to cherry pick details so it cements your confirmation bias.

Fact - China was so starved of pilots that they paid $300k USD for captains to fly around the region

Fact - Vietnam Airways increased pilot pay to attract more pilots as a lot were leaving

Fact - EK parked Jets as they didn’t have enough crew to operate them

Fact - American regionals got so desperate for pilots they started hiring Australians and pay also increased to retain talent

Fact - The Jetstar Group was crying for pilots

Fact - Qantaslink hired people from South Africa to drive their Q400

All the above is from 2016 onwards.

The fact you call the shortage a myth is laughable at best and reflects your simplistic views.

If you want to talk about pay, pay stayed stagnant and was actually tilting towards favouring the pilots but then Covid hit.

The industry will start up again, it’s all supply and demand for the job. Come visit this reply in 2024 and tell me I’m wrong!

Single pilot will not prevail for at least another 20 years. LH has a single pilot framework but they never implemented, the collaboration with Airbus is more of a data gathering exercise in exchange for most likely a discount on something. Good luck also convincing the CAD, they’ll never go for it, unless it’s been ticked off by one or more of the major regulators, they won’t approve it.
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Old 2nd Nov 2021, 14:43
  #53 (permalink)  
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Helsinki
Age: 46
Posts: 64
Nopes, to think those facts mean anything close to pilot shortage is a overly simplistic understanding of facts.

First of all the Chinese weren’t looking for f/o’s or career pilots. They were mostly looking for quick skippers to accomodate their over inflated aviation sector.
That money was needed because no sane 40-50-60 yr old westerner would gladly move to a communist nation to live in a box and be subjected to communist rule. So they needed incentives. That’s it, nothing else.

As for EK the same counts as above, remember it’s a mega expensive muslim city in the desert, people in general do not want to go live there. Those other little feeder carriers you speak of lost many pilots and had crappy contracts. Their lack of pilots was not due to a shortage but due to bad contracts.

Next time you even think about “shortage of pilots” ask yourself why BA, KLM, LUFTI, AA, CX, AF or Qantas never had planes on the ground due to pilot shortage. There has never been nor will there EVER be a shortage of pilots but there will always be a shortage of good contracts.

As for the future of aviation, nobody knows really. It’s just a guess and every decision is a bet. 2024 is so far away and anything can happen,one thing is for sure the world will have too many pilot by then as well.
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Old 2nd Nov 2021, 15:20
  #54 (permalink)  
Join Date: Jan 2007
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I can tell you why the above mentioned airlines weren’t hiring (but in reality they actually were. I personally know of 3 CX crew who left in 2018 for QF). Those airlines weren’t really expanding to new destinations so they’re just replacing staff who were retiring or chasing the money as elsewhere.

When you have countries like AU, NZ and US putting pilots on their “shortage” immigration list and issuing respective visas like hot cakes, it’s because they’re running on data, a lot more substantiated, verified data not anecdotal evidence, which you seem to be running on.
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Old 2nd Nov 2021, 16:35
  #55 (permalink)  
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Helsinki
Age: 46
Posts: 64
Why they weren’t hiring, I never spoke of that. I suggest you go read my post again, everyone hires from time to time, I spoke about planes on the ground due to a lack of pilots. None of those carriers were canceling mass amount of flights due to pilots, and that was in the biggest aviation boom we’ve ever seen(2017-2019).

I’m sorry but you are totally mistaken, here in the US pilots are NOT on any immigration shortlist nor have visas been issued like hotcakes in aviation. I have no idea where you got this from or maybe just fabricated but it’s absolutely not the case. With this visa rubbish I’ve noticed you’re out of your depth in this matter. Ciao.
gipilot is offline  
Old 3rd Nov 2021, 01:04
  #56 (permalink)  
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 99

I love the blind optimism that we're one day going to go back to the PanAm 1960's in renumeration and social status. Vietnam contract jobs currently are paying skippers $2-4 k a month, the regionals in the USA are paying marginally more. All the shortages are at places that had such piss poor pay and conditions that the locals didn't want to work there. Had nothing to do with a pilot shortage, or maybe it's a shortage of guys so desperate to get into flying they'll do it for marginally above free......
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Old 3rd Nov 2021, 01:10
  #57 (permalink)  
Join Date: Feb 2021
Location: reality
Posts: 35

You might want to check before you spread misinformation. Particularly when accusing someone of going off anecdotal evidence since that is exactly what you seem to be going off. There is no shortage of pilots in NZ and it is not on the skilled shortage list, nor was it prior to COVID. You can check the immigration website yourself. The are no “visas like hot cakes” as you speak of. In Australia there was only a temporary shortage due to the mainline snapping up regional pilots but COVID has resolved all of that. Qantas has setup its own training school and will be more than capable of meeting its own demand going forward.
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Old 3rd Nov 2021, 02:57
  #58 (permalink)  
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Here and Everywhere
Posts: 185
There is actually peer reviewed journals on pilot shortages! My god, you seriously can’t be that stupid that you think you’re smarter or have more solid information than that, that has been peer reviewed…. Worse than Anti-Vaxxers
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Old 3rd Nov 2021, 05:35
  #59 (permalink)  
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: York International
Posts: 666
Please post a link to these fantasy articles so that we may benefit from the wisdom within.
Fly747 is offline  
Old 3rd Nov 2021, 06:05
  #60 (permalink)  
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Here and Everywhere
Posts: 185

University of Nebraska study. (civil)

Military shortage
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