Property crash on horizon
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Property crash on horizon
Retire now and go home, or work 5 more years to make the amount I could lose in the property market? Interest rates are about to rise, and I'm fearful what the goat will bring. Any insight?
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Or take some advise from the 'Oracle of Omaha':
Buy when everyone else is selling.
“We’ve put a lot of money to work during the chaos of the last two years. It’s been an ideal period for investors: A climate of fear is their best friend … Big opportunities come infrequently. When it’s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.”
Don’t buy when everyone else is buying.
“Those who invest only when commentators are upbeat end up paying a heavy price for meaningless reassurance,” The obvious corollary is to be patient. You can only buy when everyone else is selling if you have held your fire when everyone was buying.
Value, value, value.
“In the end, what counts in investing is what you pay for a business-through the purchase of a small piece of it in the stock market-and what that business earns in the succeeding decade or two.”
“We’ve put a lot of money to work during the chaos of the last two years. It’s been an ideal period for investors: A climate of fear is their best friend … Big opportunities come infrequently. When it’s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.”
Don’t buy when everyone else is buying.
“Those who invest only when commentators are upbeat end up paying a heavy price for meaningless reassurance,” The obvious corollary is to be patient. You can only buy when everyone else is selling if you have held your fire when everyone was buying.
Value, value, value.
“In the end, what counts in investing is what you pay for a business-through the purchase of a small piece of it in the stock market-and what that business earns in the succeeding decade or two.”
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It's game over for the world economy if not this year; then next year. They won't raise interest rates that's nonsense, how the hell can they! They can't even pay off their 18 trillion dollar debt, plus interest and unfunded liabilities now. Besides anything else, the banks that own the Federal Reserve rely on the easy money, they make cash on the spread between the zero per cent rate and the treasury rate, you don't think they will allow this to be cut off do you?!
Oil prices will carry on dropping, the next thing financial instruments linked to oil commodity prices will blow up and it's 2008 again. Why do you think the psychopaths at citi bank just put 333 Trillion dollars worth of derivatives on the FDIC insured tax payer balance sheet in the US. Yes it's all coming down the tracks.
The USD dollar is rising not because it's economy is strong but because it's economy is screwed. Apart from money printing it has nothing. The much talked about American corporate success story is down to share buy back schemes from QE and from working existing employees into the grave. Anyone going back to American carriers is in for a rude surprise.
The USD will be pushed out of energy transactions, the petro dollar will die. More and more are engaging in RMB trade settlements, who the hell wants to do business with a country which has zero financial discipline?! In the end they will not be able to export inflation, nobody's wants worthless T bills in exchange for real goods. The world is going back towards a gold trade standard. If you haven't got gold you're screwed, this is exactly the position western nations find themselves in: Gold sold off, relying on fraudulent paper crap to patch over their fraudulent economies, bailing out bankers mistakes the whole while.
I'm not for one minute saying that the rest of the world is much better, but China still manufactures crap and Russia has raw materials. The US, meanwhile, has shale which is now useless with low oil prices.
As for Hong Kong, well, it's been an obscene bubble for way to long, it's high time reality settled in, delayed only due to rampant money printing since 2008 and the bailing out of zombie banks, alongside mainland Chinese shysters laundering money.
Oil prices will carry on dropping, the next thing financial instruments linked to oil commodity prices will blow up and it's 2008 again. Why do you think the psychopaths at citi bank just put 333 Trillion dollars worth of derivatives on the FDIC insured tax payer balance sheet in the US. Yes it's all coming down the tracks.
The USD dollar is rising not because it's economy is strong but because it's economy is screwed. Apart from money printing it has nothing. The much talked about American corporate success story is down to share buy back schemes from QE and from working existing employees into the grave. Anyone going back to American carriers is in for a rude surprise.
The USD will be pushed out of energy transactions, the petro dollar will die. More and more are engaging in RMB trade settlements, who the hell wants to do business with a country which has zero financial discipline?! In the end they will not be able to export inflation, nobody's wants worthless T bills in exchange for real goods. The world is going back towards a gold trade standard. If you haven't got gold you're screwed, this is exactly the position western nations find themselves in: Gold sold off, relying on fraudulent paper crap to patch over their fraudulent economies, bailing out bankers mistakes the whole while.
I'm not for one minute saying that the rest of the world is much better, but China still manufactures crap and Russia has raw materials. The US, meanwhile, has shale which is now useless with low oil prices.
As for Hong Kong, well, it's been an obscene bubble for way to long, it's high time reality settled in, delayed only due to rampant money printing since 2008 and the bailing out of zombie banks, alongside mainland Chinese shysters laundering money.
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Wow threethirty that is one skewed point of view!
First of all QE ended nearly 12 months ago and started winding down almost 24 months prior to that. So no collapse from that!
The Usa is one of the biggest producers of oil/gas but their economy is not a oil economy like Russia and Saudia . A low oil price will actually play into the USA economy's favour.
If you bought T bills in the past in another currency than you the USD you would have loved the currancy gain. Second, the T Bill pays you 4 % . How much has your gold paid you? If you bought T bonds when the AUD was at 1:1 you would be +20% up. Gold ???
Gold standard will never ever return! Firstly there isn't enough gold to go around to cover all of the debt..so forget about it.
If you bought the S&P index tracker in 2009 you would have doubled your money...gold???
Yes property in HKG will correct sometime in the future just like it did in the past but it will not be the end of the world.
... Off to parknshop to buy more tin food for my survival stash!
First of all QE ended nearly 12 months ago and started winding down almost 24 months prior to that. So no collapse from that!
The Usa is one of the biggest producers of oil/gas but their economy is not a oil economy like Russia and Saudia . A low oil price will actually play into the USA economy's favour.
If you bought T bills in the past in another currency than you the USD you would have loved the currancy gain. Second, the T Bill pays you 4 % . How much has your gold paid you? If you bought T bonds when the AUD was at 1:1 you would be +20% up. Gold ???
Gold standard will never ever return! Firstly there isn't enough gold to go around to cover all of the debt..so forget about it.
If you bought the S&P index tracker in 2009 you would have doubled your money...gold???
Yes property in HKG will correct sometime in the future just like it did in the past but it will not be the end of the world.
... Off to parknshop to buy more tin food for my survival stash!
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There's no sense in letting things like facts get in the way of a good argument to advance down to the local pub.
The US economy entered the firey furnace in 2008 and has now emerged from it. US economic growth is susprisingly strong, and this isn't some sort of illusion.
The EU is not even half way through it, and their journey will be convoluted due to the insane single currency spread over many radically different governments and economies.
Most parts of Asia are only now feeling a little heat.
Anyway, if not for the US market, where do you suppose China and the rest of Asia would dump their goods? If not for the implicit expectation of US protection, how long would the oil bearing sheep national governments of some of the OPEC states survive?
You might ask the government of Kuwait about that.
The US economy entered the firey furnace in 2008 and has now emerged from it. US economic growth is susprisingly strong, and this isn't some sort of illusion.
The EU is not even half way through it, and their journey will be convoluted due to the insane single currency spread over many radically different governments and economies.
Most parts of Asia are only now feeling a little heat.
Anyway, if not for the US market, where do you suppose China and the rest of Asia would dump their goods? If not for the implicit expectation of US protection, how long would the oil bearing sheep national governments of some of the OPEC states survive?
You might ask the government of Kuwait about that.
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I'd rather be 3 years too early than 5 minutes too late.
Froggy: it sounds like it's not just others who have a skewed view! I agree the gold standard won't come back, but only because every government that is broke (all of them?) needs to be able to print money to cover up the cracks.
Yes, one would have doubled their money if one had invested in the S&P500 in 09, definitely more than gold. But you are really just data-mining to suit your case. For example, an investment in the S&P from 07 to now would have yielded a total of 30%, whereas gold in the same time frame managed 35%
Froggy: it sounds like it's not just others who have a skewed view! I agree the gold standard won't come back, but only because every government that is broke (all of them?) needs to be able to print money to cover up the cracks.
Yes, one would have doubled their money if one had invested in the S&P500 in 09, definitely more than gold. But you are really just data-mining to suit your case. For example, an investment in the S&P from 07 to now would have yielded a total of 30%, whereas gold in the same time frame managed 35%
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ok lets look a lot longer back in history.
1980: Gold price $850, S&P 338
Gold today $1228 S&P 2023
Gold went up by 144% and the S&P 598%
Add the dividends to that and it as they say...it cr@ps all over your gold investment
No matter how you spin it, Gold is not a good inflation hedge and does not beat a well diversified portfolio on the long term!
As you can see all you needed to do was buy the S&P tracker and you would be better off than gold.
Did you know that gold is only worth 3% of what it was worth during the Roman times.
1980: Gold price $850, S&P 338
Gold today $1228 S&P 2023
Gold went up by 144% and the S&P 598%
Add the dividends to that and it as they say...it cr@ps all over your gold investment
No matter how you spin it, Gold is not a good inflation hedge and does not beat a well diversified portfolio on the long term!
As you can see all you needed to do was buy the S&P tracker and you would be better off than gold.
Did you know that gold is only worth 3% of what it was worth during the Roman times.
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QE only "stopped" last year, except it didn't. When QE3 was finished in October of last year the bank of Japan picked up the reigns monetising everything in sight. In fact they did this the very day after the announcement of the end of QE, coincidence not. Other than this interest rates are still at the zero bound, this is providing pure monetary heroin for all the speculators in the finance world, borrowing cheap, leveraging to the hilt and booking the profits in the repo market. So no QE hasn't ended, I didn't even mention the buying of treasury bills by the the EU and I'm sure the fed is still shovelling money to banks behind the scenes to get the dodgy derivatives off their balance sheets. The US economy is a basket case, the lies of 3% GDP are just statistical and accounting trickery. Look at the real unemployment rate of 22%, look at all the people on food stamps, look at the number of recent lay offs at coca cola, Sears, CAT, etc. The stock market does not represent the real economy it's phoney. They are trying to hoodwink the masses into thinking that due to the rise that everything is ok but it's not ok. It's being propped up by the Fed in after hours stock buying events, as soon as it looks like it's going to fall the Feds plunge protection team is there to the rescue, must...end...in...green. The 1% are doing well in the US but that was always so, like Bangalaru said we're in for a huge shock, the chickens are about to come home to roost and all of the bogus lies and statistics will be exposed for what they are.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...source-us-jobs
And finally the plunge protection
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...if-market-fair
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...source-us-jobs
And finally the plunge protection
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...if-market-fair
Last edited by Threethirty; 14th Jan 2015 at 10:12.
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Did you know that gold is only worth 3% of what it was worth during the Roman times
I'm shooting from the hip here, 'cos it's late and I'm largely piised (and too tired to look up some references), but you are totally wrong.
Gold is WORTH almost exactly the same now as it has throughout history.
One ounce will buy you about the same number of loaves of bread now as it did then; it will buy you a good suit now, as it did in the Roman times.
That's the point: it remains a store of value, in spite of what pieces of paper and promises any government tries to print.
I am quite confident that my successors (should I have any) will be able to spend an ounce of gold in 300 years time anywhere in the world; not so the equivalent USD1230!
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In 300 years time if we're still here, the USD would have gone down in the history books in terms of how irresponsible nations conduct their finances. I'm sure by then, however, it'll be a totalitarian cash-less society and not a place you'd want to be!
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Ahahahaha Threethirty you are taking life wayyy too seriously man!
If we really are that screwed then why worry, the whole of the world will be anyway so nothing much you can do, we' ll work something out.
If not -as is very likely!- then keep going and enjoy today instead of formulating dramatic scenarios! Just avoid getting yourselves in a million dollar debt for that nice house or car and go with the flow.
Remember this world is the hands of lobbies, not politicians and surely not people, they love their banks and bonuses, this system will eventually collapse..not soon though!
If we really are that screwed then why worry, the whole of the world will be anyway so nothing much you can do, we' ll work something out.
If not -as is very likely!- then keep going and enjoy today instead of formulating dramatic scenarios! Just avoid getting yourselves in a million dollar debt for that nice house or car and go with the flow.
Remember this world is the hands of lobbies, not politicians and surely not people, they love their banks and bonuses, this system will eventually collapse..not soon though!
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some additional info for your decision making
Threethirty
"In 300 years time if we're still here, the USD would have gone down in the history books in terms of how irresponsible nations conduct their finances. I'm sure by then, however, it'll be a totalitarian cash-less society and not a place you'd want to be!"
well:
The USD(=FED. REServe) is being OWNED by 5 families literally. It is a private bank and has nothing to do with the US and when JFK tried to implement the silver based USD by executive order 11110 in 1963 to enable to transfer the right to print USA money by the treasury. Well ,I guess you know the rest " a magic bullet ". And no more family bloodline remaining. And they are all German by the way those owners of THE money (just like George Soros, actually gyorgy Schwartz. And the Queen of England/Holland/Spain etc. etc.).
Regarding gold(money) versus fiat currency: well fiat currency is paper, controlled wealth through governments so by trusting them you have no
control over your wealth. On the other hand gold or better money has intrinsic value, rendering the individual to have direct control over her/his
wealth.
Fiat currency solves many issues for governments in order to be able to tax you etc. etc.,
"In 300 years time if we're still here, the USD would have gone down in the history books in terms of how irresponsible nations conduct their finances. I'm sure by then, however, it'll be a totalitarian cash-less society and not a place you'd want to be!"
well:
The USD(=FED. REServe) is being OWNED by 5 families literally. It is a private bank and has nothing to do with the US and when JFK tried to implement the silver based USD by executive order 11110 in 1963 to enable to transfer the right to print USA money by the treasury. Well ,I guess you know the rest " a magic bullet ". And no more family bloodline remaining. And they are all German by the way those owners of THE money (just like George Soros, actually gyorgy Schwartz. And the Queen of England/Holland/Spain etc. etc.).
Regarding gold(money) versus fiat currency: well fiat currency is paper, controlled wealth through governments so by trusting them you have no
control over your wealth. On the other hand gold or better money has intrinsic value, rendering the individual to have direct control over her/his
wealth.
Fiat currency solves many issues for governments in order to be able to tax you etc. etc.,
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Quote:
One ounce will buy you about the same number of loaves of bread now as it did then; it will buy you a good suit now, as it did in the Roman times.
One ounce will buy you about the same number of loaves of bread now as it did then; it will buy you a good suit now, as it did in the Roman times.