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B748i or A380 order?

Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

B748i or A380 order?

Old 22nd Oct 2013, 21:10
  #81 (permalink)  
 
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For info BA's A380 service to HKG commences today (wed). BA25 ETA 1300L.
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Old 23rd Oct 2013, 01:23
  #82 (permalink)  
 
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Who fcuk!ng cares

Ooooohhh cx this, oooooooohh cx that

[email protected] guys. More importat sh!t than effin C effin X

Your job n conditions are going down the toilet, and you crap on about an airplane.


No wonder this job and its terms suck.
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Old 23rd Oct 2013, 02:23
  #83 (permalink)  
 
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We all should care. Our airline is going down the toilet because our management (what a joke) are living in the shadows, while our competitors are flying aircraft passengers want to fly in.

Reckon we will be able to negotiate another 3-year pay deal in 2017?

Wind your neck in.
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Old 23rd Oct 2013, 12:59
  #84 (permalink)  
 
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Who fcuk!ng cares

Ooooohhh cx this, oooooooohh cx that

[email protected] guys. More importat sh!t than effin C effin X

Your job n conditions are going down the toilet, and you crap on about an airplane.


No wonder this job and its terms suck.
Breathe in... breathe out, breathe in...breathe out. Now drink some beer and relax.
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Old 24th Oct 2013, 00:24
  #85 (permalink)  
 
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A contrary view of the A380

Airbus May Be Making the World's Fattest, Most Expensive Turkey

No U.S. carrier has stepped up to buy the A380 and none likely will. “The A380 is, by definition, an uneconomic airplane unless you’re a state-owned enterprise with subsidies,” said Delta ceo Richard Anderson in a recent speech. He’s making a reference to Emirates and Singapore Airlines, who own about 45% of all planned deliveries. Emirates has 35 A380s operating out of a total order of 90. According to aviation expert Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis at Teal Group, there have been 167 net A380 orders over the last decade. Airbus planned to build 30 A380s annually but the current rate is less than 17 per year. “The people who are in the order book are the order book,” Aboulafia says, meaning the potential to add new orders is limited.
Your Mileage May Vary
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Old 24th Oct 2013, 00:39
  #86 (permalink)  
 
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I'd like to play devils advocate here:

It would be a far better business model if CX flew a 787-8 or incrementally larger aircraft direct from HKG to every market which could support several flights per week. Tap the high yield pax and cargo which pay a premium for the direct flights and leave EK (and like carriers) to connect low fare pax through the Gulf (or elsewhere) on their big A380s.

This is essentially what CX does right now with the A330 to all the major cities in Australia. Right? Now maybe the flights to Sydney and Melbourne need larger aircraft. I don't know, but clearly CX has chosen to simply increase frequency rather than fly larger equipment there.

I think this is a prototypical case of "Bigger isn't always better."
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Old 24th Oct 2013, 01:35
  #87 (permalink)  
 
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cx only serves 2 Canadian cities... is there demand for a few times a week to (say) Calgary and/or Montréal with a 787 or 350 type of aircraft?

Last edited by bigjames; 24th Oct 2013 at 01:35.
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Old 24th Oct 2013, 04:36
  #88 (permalink)  
swh

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This is essentially what CX does right now with the A330 to all the major cities in Australia. Right? Now maybe the flights to Sydney and Melbourne need larger aircraft. I don't know, but clearly CX has chosen to simply increase frequency rather than fly larger equipment there.
Have a look at an airfrare from Oz to where ever, CX used to be high yield, now you can get a return airfrare from Oz to Europe for around AUD$1600.

Question : how is it they are offering airfrares lower than 10 years ago in this "high oil price" environment ????
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Old 24th Oct 2013, 05:39
  #89 (permalink)  
 
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Swh,

You completely missed my point. I don't think CX should be trying to capture market share on the Kangaroo route. That is a mostly low yield market with everybody and their brother competing for that traffic.

The traffic CX wants is O&D HKG. That means traffic which originates from HKG or has HKG as its destination. This is the high yield market. Go look at those fares, they are expensive because only two carriers do it, CX and QF. Near as I can tell, CX is kicking the crap out of QF to HKG.

The Kangaroo route should only be utilized to fill seats during off peak periods when demand is low. Of course connecting traffic is important, but that is more the case for regional connections than for long haul to long haul markets.

You can be assured that CX is not dumb when it comes to revenue management. IMO, it is one of the only things CX does exceptionally well. It is also the primary driver behind CX not committing to a new VLA aircraft. If they ever show up, I believe they will be leased, not purchased. The last thing CX wants to do is fight fare wars with other A380 operators in desperate attempts to fill seats.
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Old 24th Oct 2013, 09:26
  #90 (permalink)  
 
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Big bird fails to take off: Airbus A380 sales slump
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Old 24th Oct 2013, 13:19
  #91 (permalink)  
 
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The B747-8 seems to have reduced orders and slashed production rates as well...

Perhaps things will pick up again for VL aircraft when the World Economy looks brighter. That has been the pattern in the past.
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Old 24th Oct 2013, 15:55
  #92 (permalink)  
 
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With the 777x on the near horizon, the 747-8 will likely die out a quiet death. You cannot argue a 15% CASM gain from the 777-3ER to the new 777X. Maybe a few more freighters, but the big twins are going to be our future. Get used to it!

box
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Old 24th Oct 2013, 18:15
  #93 (permalink)  
 
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Smaller twins could make the route map look a lot more interesting, although I doubt CX has the stones for that kind of expansion. Why fly to DFW or BOS when a fourth LAX or JFK can be added? That's the mentality we are up against. Why fly to Gatwick or Manchester when a fifth LHR can be negotiated away from ANZ? Why not fly to Munich? Maybe because all our long range airplanes are just too big?!?

Maybe the A359 opens up some new markets, maybe not. It's only 30 seats fewer than the A350-1000, which is essentially the same size as the 777-300ER minus a wee bit of girth on the fuselage.

HKG is getting a third runway. So why not buy the whole line of 787s? The smaller two can be used for long haul route map expansion while the -10 serves as the replacement aircraft for the A330 on regional and medium range routes.

I'm sure many of you Boeing haters will post all the articles about maintenance issues on the 787, but does anyone truly believe that it will not be a another reliable Boeing aircraft once all the kinks are worked out?

In some sense, I suppose the A358 could accomplish the same, but from what I've been reading it may not even be produced because it is so much heavier than the same sized 787-9. If CX avoids the 787 series altogether, what replaces the A333, the A359 Regional? Again, that is a much heavier, and less efficient, aircraft than the 787-10.

Taking cover...

Last edited by cxorcist; 24th Oct 2013 at 22:22.
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Old 25th Oct 2013, 00:26
  #94 (permalink)  
 
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Any airline can fill any aircraft on any route.
It's just a matter of what price they can get for each seat.
One airline makes up the bulk of the A380 order book.
This airline has found that it can hub enough traffic through a single well placed airport to make this aircraft work well.
Most other airlines have ordered a relative handful of A380s.
The total order book for the 747-8i is embarassingly small.
The future looks to be in big twins. For slot constricted airports, higher fares will be used to deal with demand. There are always nearby alternatives.
If you really must arrive at LHR, you'll pay for the priviledge.
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Old 25th Oct 2013, 02:21
  #95 (permalink)  
 
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With the 777x on the near horizon, the 747-8 will likely die out a quiet death. You cannot argue a 15% CASM gain from the 777-3ER to the new 777X. Maybe a few more freighters, but the big twins are going to be our future. Get used to it!
I don't think Boeing would be all that upset if they don't sell many 747-8 Intercontinentals, so long as they can sell the 747-8F. Scuttlebutt is that they don't really make much money on the passenger version compared to the freighter anyway (its harder to build). Meanwhile, the 777F peaks out at about 100 tons payload - if you want more than that the 747 is the only game in town (~140 tons for the -8F). Yes the freight market is soft right now, but nearly everyone expects it to come back eventually. Most of the 747-400s built after 2000 were freighters, so it wouldn't be a big surprise if the freighter makes up the majority of the 747-8 production.

Meanwhile, everything is in place to build Intercontinentals if the market comes back, or even if it just a customer like Cathay that comes in an wants 10 or 12 airplanes.
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Old 25th Oct 2013, 03:33
  #96 (permalink)  
 
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fdcg27,

That is a very good post. You are exactly correct on all counts.

IMO, those points all make the case for long range twins - 787-8 size and up - serving point to point or hub to point markets.

An interesting parallel is with the "RJ revolution" in the US which is unraveling as a successful point to point aircraft. The reason it unravelled is because the seat economics are horrible on RJs. The newest generation of medium size twins (787 and A350) have excellent seat economics.
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Old 25th Oct 2013, 03:53
  #97 (permalink)  
 
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tdracer,

I think your post is accurate. The 747-8 has always been a relatively "risk-off" program because all those -400 freighters need to be replaced sometime. Unless a carrier is willing to downsize to the 777F or even further to the A330F, the 747-8F is the only game in town in the cargo market.
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Old 29th Oct 2013, 22:33
  #98 (permalink)  
 
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China Southern joins Sydney's A380 club | Plane Talking

China Southern joins Sydney’s A380 club, promises cold beer

China Southern in crisis over serving warm beer to Australian passengers. Vows to lower the temperature as it brings its A380s to Sydney and 787s to Auckland.

China Southern A380 gets hosed at Sydney Airport: Supplied photo


It would have seemed superfluous to those caught in this morning’s unforecast deluges across parts of Sydney, but China Southern took its own watery initiation when it joined the airport’s A380 club when it arrived amid what was a very wet peak hour for some drivers.

The daily A380 it now flies to Sydney from Guangzhou coincided with its launching of Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner flights to Auckland. Needless to say, ‘they’ are watching intently, not just in Qantas and Air New Zealand, but in Cathay Pacific, since the rise and rise of nearby Guangzhou as a well connected China hub with a very good modern airport is not just an issue affecting its Australian services, but its marketing of Hong Kong as a gateway to the PRC.

It’s also a case possibly getting circled by A380s. With Qantas soon to go daily with A380s from Sydney to Hong Kong and China Southern now daily to it rival neighbour, the frequency versus size card may start to look like less of a game winner given the very high probability of strong growth in the China to Australia market, never mind the much smaller one in the the other direction (in time).

Can Cathay Pacific afford to leave passengers behind for others if it only [has] slots for four A333s a day on the Sydney route until it replaces them with 777-300ERs (which it needs for other longer routes) or A350-900s and -1000s later in the decade, when the game might just be over?

Not everything has gone China Southern’s way however. Today it also to its credit admitted to ‘cultural’ problems with serving warm beer to Australians flying its new Canton Route to London. Now that’s a reputational crisis if ever there was one, but China’s biggest airline is resolved that it will no longer be warm beer on board, although maybe it will have to make an exception for any Pommie passengers.
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Old 30th Oct 2013, 00:28
  #99 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting sight last night. At the North West end of the terminal, there was a Lufthansa -8I, a BA 380 and an Emirates 380 side by side.....with a CX 777 ER next to them. Small, sad and lonely is how it appeared..... Pretty apparent which airlines are endeavouring to provide the premium products in the market place. It's not CX....
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Old 30th Oct 2013, 01:01
  #100 (permalink)  
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Im sure it looked a little pathetic among its larger peers, Trafalgar. The thing is, however, that the AC type is not what makes it premium. Ok, there's that fuzzy feeling walking in and turning left in a Jumbo, and the A380 is a tad quieter. Note that there is absolutely nothing exclusive about the A380 - there are so many seats in first and business, it doesn't have an exclusive feel about it, whatsoever.

The bottom line is that its the carrier that provides premium product, not the aircraft. The number of pax who will opt for the A380 due to a bit less noise and roomier 'feel' will be more than offset by the number of pax who want frequency. QR is another 'twin-jet' fleet who undoubtedly provide some of the industry's best service. A/C have nothing to do with it, provided they are modern.

Whether we think CX service is good or declining; one thing is for certain, it is still better than most. Certainly moreso than our OneWorld A380 operating brethren.

All the A380 will do is help capture market share. It's fair to say CX have done a decent job of getting it's requisite share of the HKG-LHR market. It is also in a far better position to manage yields than an A380 operator. Love or loathe them, the CX management are very astute at revenue and yield management.

Market share does not mean profit. At a time when all the US carriers were going bankrupt chasing market share, Herb Kelleher was in the background, the only one saying that market share is not profit. Look how that turned out.
 

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