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Cathay poised to place order for widebodies

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Cathay poised to place order for widebodies

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Old 5th Aug 2010, 11:39
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30 + 30 A350?

What does SCMP mean by this?

"The airline entered a preliminary contract to buy 30 long-range Airbus A350 jetliners, powered by Rolls-Royce engines, at a catalogue price of HK$60.84 billion. The aircraft will be delivered between 2016 and 2019.

Cathay also intends to exercise the options to acquire six General Electric-powered Boeing 777s at an estimated cost of HK$12.48 billion, bringing the outstanding firm orders for the twin-jet planes to 18 from 12.

The new aircraft will replace existing B747 and A340 jets as well as accommodate future passenger demand growth, Cathay chief executive Tony Tyler said. The airline has an option to buy 30 additional A350s in the future."

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Old 5th Aug 2010, 12:49
  #82 (permalink)  
 
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From Flight International

Cathay Pacific leaves door open to ultra-large airliners, despite big twinjet deal

By Max Kingsley-Jones

While Cathay Pacific has decided that the Airbus A350 and Boeing 777 will become the core of its fleet, the door is still open to a potential future deal for the ultra-large A380 and 747-8I. Airbus remains convinced that the Hong Kong airline will one day buy its double-decker.

Cathay says that its decision to have the A350-900 and 777-300ER "at the core" of its long-haul fleet follows "a thorough evaluation of our requirements as we approach the retirement of the 747-400 and A340-300". Cathay, which operates 15 A340-300s and 22 747-400s, adds that it does not plan to replace the entire fleets of these two types with the new aircraft, but "only the older ones". These orders will also be used to accommodate fleet growth.

Cathay Pacific A340
Cathay Pacific is to retire its older A340s, replacing them with A350-900s and 777-300ERs

The airline is guarded about the status of any ultra-large aircraft order discussions, saying only that is not currently considering a deal for either type "but we continue to evaluate our fleet development needs".

With Airbus forecasting that Hong Kong will be the world's number one hub for movements of ultra-large aircraft over the long term, it remains convinced that Cathay will eventually become a customer for the type.

"It is a question of timing. Looking at the big picture, I'll bet that in five years' time Cathay will have ordered by then," says A380 marketing chief Richard Carcaillet.

"It's up to us to an extent, and it's up to them to make the move - but they know they need the aircraft. It's down to commercial discussions and fleet planning."
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Old 5th Aug 2010, 23:49
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Regarding the A350 order, and from personal experience of the introduction of the A330 to Cathay Pacific, I can only quote Chuck Yeager:

'Never fly the A-model of anything'.
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Old 6th Aug 2010, 05:26
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'Never fly the A-model of anything'.
There have been over 500 A350 ordered before CX did. The thing will have flown 1000s of hours by the time they get their hands on the first one.
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Old 6th Aug 2010, 09:05
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There have been over 500 A350 ordered before CX did. The thing will have flown 1000s of hours by the time they get their hands on the first one.
Not a very accurate statement. Order numbers have nothing to do with delivery schedule. It is not necessarily in sequential order.
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Old 6th Aug 2010, 11:25
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Well that's true, but CX is rather late to the game and no matter what sort of deal they got with Airbus, I'm fairly certain they just couldn't secure early delivery slots at this point.

The first delivery is due sometime in 2016, which, according to the current schedule, is 3 years after its introduction into airline service. At the planned production rate, that means that at least 300 aircrafts will be in airline service by then.

It will be out of its teething phase, and the design improvements and weight reductions planned for the -800 will probably have been introduced on the -900 too.
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Old 6th Aug 2010, 11:53
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Weight reduction like this:

Airbus Wing Breaks Early In Load Test

They took too much metal out. Note that "it broke within 3% of the target, which shows how good our modelling is."

WTF? It broke early. Your modelling predicted that, and that's OK?
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Old 6th Aug 2010, 11:59
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And here's how CX get aeroplanes early:

Order cancelled. This order included 7 A350's.

Coz CX is cashed up and the manufacturers wold rather have cash than an IOU or MOU...

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Old 6th Aug 2010, 12:18
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They took too much metal out.
No, they didn't put enough in.

The name of the game is to make the wing as sturdy as the certifying regulation requires it while at the same time keeping the weight as low as possible.
Putting too much metal in and making it too strong adds unnecessary weight that bears on the overall performance and operating cost of the aircraft.

Reinforcements were subsequently made and the wing was certified.

And that was the A380, by the way, not the A350.
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Old 6th Aug 2010, 14:28
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too much metal in and making it too strong adds unnecessary weight that bears on the overall performance and operating cost of the aircraft.
I bet that Air France A330 crew were not thinking the same thing as they plunged to the Atlantic from 37,000 feet.

I don't know how comfortable I am flying in an aircraft that was built only just strong enough. Kind of like hanging from a a wire that supports only your weight down to the exact ounce.

It just leaves no room for the big "unknown" - and we know how many of those we come across in our profession. Don't get me wrong, I don't want to turn this into A versus B, because I think Boeings are slowly moving in that direction as well. Didn't the 787 have similar problems in that they found they need to re-inforce the wing box?

I think airlines are not the only business that accountants have taken over.
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Old 6th Aug 2010, 17:14
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Emirates.....6 years to command on possibly an A380.... We are in danger of becoming a very boring airline....
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Old 6th Aug 2010, 17:18
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What load?

Quote:
"I don't know how comfortable I am flying in an aircraft that was built only just strong enough. Kind of like hanging from a a wire that supports only your weight down to the exact ounce"

Since when? Certification is for the structure to be tested at 150% over the maximum design load in normal operations. Not "to the ounce".
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Old 7th Aug 2010, 05:51
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I bet that Air France A330 crew were not thinking the same thing as they plunged to the Atlantic from 37,000 feet.
Good to see you've figured out the exact causes and circumstances of the AF crash. Don't forget to ring up Airbus and the BEA to let them know...

I don't know how comfortable I am flying in an aircraft that was built only just strong enough. Kind of like hanging from a a wire that supports only your weight down to the exact ounce.
You might want to get a new job then. Certification criterias haven't changed in a long while, and the metal you've been flying so far is just as sturdy as any of the new ones coming out now.
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Old 10th Aug 2010, 02:55
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@ Ex Cathedra:

I'm well aware of that being a 380, just pointing out Airbus history. The link clearly refers to it being a 380, and I remember it being report so at the time.

Reinforcements were subsequently made and the wing was certified.
So it was made heavier - and once again they fail to meet their stated range/weight predictions made to the bean counters who purchase these things, and then pay contract penalty fines after the fact.
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Old 10th Aug 2010, 04:46
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So it was made heavier - and once again they fail to meet their stated range/weight predictions

Er, ...no, they didn't.

Strenghtening the wing only required about 30 Kg worth of reinforcements. Not really that significant on an aircraft that weighs 280 Tonnes empty.

The A380 has met or exceeded every design target performances when entering airline service. It's fuel consumption is slightly lower than forecast, due to better than expected engine burn, L/D performance and general aerodynamics (that huge forehead apparently helps a lot...), and bound to improve with time, all this despite the aircraft being 5T overweight.

For a bit of perspective, the 787 is well above 5T overweight (around +8%), for a much lighter aircraft, and the first batch of airframes will largely miss their design range (-10% to -15%), payload and probably fuel burn specifications as the Gen-X weren't performing as good as expected on the bench, though that will improve.
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Old 10th Aug 2010, 14:28
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Soooo my first prediction is true.

350's, less 74's, more 777's

Next is announcement of how many to Dragonair, remember this is a group buy and CX management are already hinting to the flight crews some will be for our network expansion.

Now, sorry boys (AoA), bottom of seniority list when Dragonair gets all the 350's because your not looking after your junior pilots and they will soon revolt, then management will use divide and conquer.
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