Something brewing..

[quadspeed]

Pprune has 'exploded' in rumors the last few days. The last aoa update hints at conflicts ahead.. Calm before the storm? Something is brewing, but who is in the know? Makes you wonder what the true identity of many a ppruner is.

[about_to_jump]

my cuppa tea is about the only thing that's brewing here ...

[VR-HFX]

More than tea I am afraid...

Whilst the impact by region varies the macro numbers show that pax revenue is off between 12% and 16% YOY. North America was ahead of the curve in declines but Europe and Asia are now replicating these numbers. Premium revenue is off 20%-25%.

On the cargo side the numbers are off about 40% and this has not yet stabilised.

No carrier has been immune.

All the classic freighters straight to the knackers yard. The latest 400 conversion coming out of Xiamen is going straight to the desert.

Could be worse, we could be in the shipping business. Oops we are in that too.

[Composite Man]

So why did we extend a few pax line captains onto the freighter this month?

[iflylow]

So why did we extend a few pax line captains onto the freighter this month?

That's confirmed. I know personally of one extended this past Monday (two days ago). Went from A-scale HKG-based PAX Captain, to B-Scale, local HKG package freighter Captain.

There will be absolutely no LWOP and certainly not even a chance of concessions until these extendees stop.

[Five Green]

Ahead or behind what exactly ?

VR :

Wow you nailed those figures ! Maybe you can explain what exactly they mean ! As I am sick of the company saying "We are xxx behind last years budget....." well what does that mean...Does it mean "we are stillmaking money, just not enough to pad our bonus....." ?

Even in the latest release it said " we are xxx behind the YOY budget and that is even after adjusting our figures down " or words to that effect (affect?) ! So they have even reduced their expectations but still did not meet a "target".

So is cash flow negative or positive ? Are we bleeding money or just having a down year ? Since the company cannot release figures it is hard to tell.

I do know this, we own a lot of aircraft, we can withstand a down year or two. If we can not then we are in the wrong business. Yes things are grim now, but they will improve again. Let's not buy in to the propaganda and give away anything that we most certainly will not get back.

Peace out

[Sqwak7700]

Talk to crew control and you will find out that they are desperately short. They are still changing duties to reserve and very short on passenger guys on the 400.

Cathay never did anything to fix the crewing situation before the economy took a dump. Yes they have parked some aircraft, but attrition has also shortened the numbers and we are still accepting new aircraft.

The only thing this downturn has done is give them a little more breathing room when it comes to training, but even that is still quite over-tasked.

I really hope that the AOA keeps their head together during all of this. I'm really getting sick of this updates from the union saying that "we are in talks, we'll let you know in a few weeks". It is getting pretty old. Why can't they at least tell us what these talks are about without divulging any details? I don't understand why we have all this secrecy from our own union.

[broadband circuit]

I'm really getting sick of this updates from the union saying that "we are in talks, we'll let you know in a few weeks". It is getting pretty old. Why can't they at least tell us what these talks are about without divulging any details?

Facts have been coming to light in the last few days to confirm what we already knew in our hearts - our management expect (or more likely want) the talks to fail.

IMHO, our committee are aware of that fact, and I think they're smart enough to not want to give the managers even a sniff of an excuse to walk out of the talks because "The AOA broke a confidentiality agreement during the talks, and can't be trusted"

[asianeagle]

Talk to crew control and you will find out that they are desperately short. They are still changing duties to reserve and very short on passenger guys on the 400.

Then how come I am doing so many friggin freighter flights.
All but one are freighters and thought we had a freight crew surplus

[VR-HFX]

Five Green

I am not suggesting it is time to input 7700 into the transponder.

My point is quite simple.

This economic downturn is very very different to anything that has happened in the last 50 years. The global aviation business has gone to hell in a handbasket in terms of revenue and yield very very quickly. More so on the cargo side than the pax side. Basically no one knows when things will pick up but carriers that can take capacity out will do so as quickly as they can and try and maintain the ability to bring it back on line should things turn.

SARS was bad but it was finite. Cargo was pretty much unaffected and actually carried the company.

The owned fleet has to be written down on the balance sheet as the re-sale market is non est. The order book has to be funded. Even a HKD30bn cash position, while healthy, is chicken feed against the order book at HKD1bn an a/c.

And yes, it doesn't seem thus on the 400 but that is a small part of the picture.

I agree we should stand up for ourselves but as any poker player will tell you, a pair of twos is not something you put all your chips on.

I, for one, won't be trying to extend but to those that are savaging the extendees, they are not part of this problem, only a convenient whipping boy.

[JoeShmoe]

Then how come I am doing so many friggin freighter flights.
All but one are freighters and thought we had a freight crew surplus


Probably because of 4 man crew non-stop to LA/YVR and vv instead of 3 man.