New Economic Times ahead
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New Economic Times ahead
There is growing pressure inside the world at large - and it will manifest itself in New Economic Times.
Problem is- this won't be a great leap forward into unparalleled wealth: it will be the destruction of wealth the world over- led foremost by the US.
It's already happenning now.
The great wealth machine (most notably US) peaked 7-8 years ago, the US market has been ensconced in a bear market (real vs nominal terms) since, and it ended a typical wave pattern last October- typical in that the newer nominal highs led the bulls to rant that the great gravy train was back and will keep on chugging.
This wave pattern-DICTATED BY HUMAN TRENDS/EMOTION - NOT EXTRANEOUS INFLUENCES is typtcal of the last great shout of a countertrend bull within an established bear market.
The true-nasty wave of the Bear is nigh- and wil last a LONG LONG TIME.
Just watch- you'll see.....think China is immune???
Stay in CASH
Problem is- this won't be a great leap forward into unparalleled wealth: it will be the destruction of wealth the world over- led foremost by the US.
It's already happenning now.
The great wealth machine (most notably US) peaked 7-8 years ago, the US market has been ensconced in a bear market (real vs nominal terms) since, and it ended a typical wave pattern last October- typical in that the newer nominal highs led the bulls to rant that the great gravy train was back and will keep on chugging.
This wave pattern-DICTATED BY HUMAN TRENDS/EMOTION - NOT EXTRANEOUS INFLUENCES is typtcal of the last great shout of a countertrend bull within an established bear market.
The true-nasty wave of the Bear is nigh- and wil last a LONG LONG TIME.
Just watch- you'll see.....think China is immune???
Stay in CASH
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I also heard that there is a great big meteor hurling towards earth and it will destroy all life on earth as we know it (Except for cockroaches and airline CEOs).
So China can keep burning coal, it wont matter in a few weeks.
So China can keep burning coal, it wont matter in a few weeks.
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Gold high.
USD low.
Oil high.
US in debt to the back teeth.
High oil prices stem the bleeding of US currency leaving the US finance system.
Chaos in the middle east is helping push the price of oil up.
The US is backing the lions share of instability there.
Not all is what it seems.
USD low.
Oil high.
US in debt to the back teeth.
High oil prices stem the bleeding of US currency leaving the US finance system.
Chaos in the middle east is helping push the price of oil up.
The US is backing the lions share of instability there.
Not all is what it seems.
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Gold and oil high because dollar low. Only expensive if you are paid in dollars. Some of EU countries, such as Italy and Spain, have worse balance of payments figures than US. Spain imports 10 per cent more than it exports. US figure is 5 percent. UK debt, relative to GDP is worse than US debt at both government and personal level.
You are obviously only a Professor in your dreams.
You are obviously only a Professor in your dreams.
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The growing national debt, the trade imbalance, and (most of all) the skyrocketing energy costs (aided by the complete lack of a coherent energy policy in the U.S.) represent a severe and tangible threat to the U.S. and world economy. Actual inflation rates (only now beginning to ripple through all sectors of the economy) are much more than reported because these (due to creative accounting) exclude energy costs.
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erhh
"however, when economists start acting as pilots then the brown stuff is really going to hit the fan"
not to worry, firewall, it won't happen cos economist are aware they don't know everthing
not to worry, firewall, it won't happen cos economist are aware they don't know everthing
What the hell you say?
If I flew my 777 the way the economists have flown the economy lately then I think I would have splashed down somewhere in the South China sea by now, out of fuel and out of ideas.
Get real, economists know NOTHING.
If I flew my 777 the way the economists have flown the economy lately then I think I would have splashed down somewhere in the South China sea by now, out of fuel and out of ideas.
Get real, economists know NOTHING.
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Well, they know enough to take the enormous bonus when things are good, but no responsibilty when there is a faecal/rotary excursion... funny, where have I heard those qualities before.......
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Until a few months ago, it was accepted wisdom that the American economy functioned far more smoothly than in the past. Economic expansions lasted longer, and recessions were both shorter and milder. Inflation had been tamed. The spreading of financial risk, across institutions and around the world, had reduced the odds of a crisis.
Back in 2004, Ben Bernanke, then a Federal Reserve governor, borrowed a phrase from an academic research paper to give these happy developments a name: “the great moderation.”
These days, though, the great moderation isn’t looking quite so great — or so moderate.
The recent financial turmoil has many causes, but they are tied to a basic fear that some of the economic successes of the last generation may yet turn out to be a mirage. That helps explain why problems in the American subprime mortgage market could have spread so quickly through the world’s financial system. On Tuesday, Mr. Bernanke, who is now the Fed chairman, presided over the steepest one-day interest rate cut in the central bank’s history.
The great moderation now seems to have depended — in part — on a huge speculative bubble, first in stocks and then real estate, that hid the economy’s rough edges. Everyone from first-time home buyers to Wall Street chief executives made bets they did not fully understand, and then spent money as if those bets couldn’t go bad. For the past 16 years, American consumers have increased their overall spending every single quarter, which is almost twice as long as any previous streak.
Now, some worry, comes the payback. Martin Feldstein, the éminence grise of Republican economists, says he is concerned that the economy “could slip into a recession and that the recession could be a long, deep, severe one.” In Monday’s Democratic presidential debate, Barack Obama made the same argument: “We could be sliding into an extraordinary recession,” he said.
In the next breath, of course, Mr. Obama suggested that the right policies might still help, while Mr. Feldstein has said that a recession isn’t yet a sure thing. And much of the great moderation is real. Computers allow managers to run their businesses more efficiently and avoid some of the wild swings. The Fed and central banks in other countries have learned from their past mistakes.
But a recession is now more likely than not. It may well have started already. The Philadelphia Fed reported Tuesday that the economy shrank in 23 states last month, including Ohio, Missouri and Arizona, and was stagnant in seven others. California and Florida, with their plunging home values, may soon join the recession list.
The bigger question is how severe the recession will be if it does come to pass. The last two, in 1990-1 and 2001, have been rather mild, which is a crucial part of the great moderation mystique. There are three reasons, though, to think the next recession may not be.
First, Wall Street hasn’t yet come clean. Even after last week, when JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo announced big losses in their consumer credit businesses, financial service firms have still probably gone public with less than half of their mortgage-related losses, according to Moody’s Economy.com. They’re not being dishonest; they just haven’t untangled all of their complex investments.
“Part of the big uncertainty,” Raghuram G. Rajan, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said, “is where the bodies are buried.”
As Mr. Rajan pointed out, this situation is more severe than the crisis involving Long Term Capital Management in the late 1990s. That was a case in which a limited set of bad investments, largely at one firm, had the potential to drive down the value of other firms’ holdings in the short term. Those firms then might have stopped lending money because they no longer had the capital to do so. But their own balance sheets were largely healthy.
This time, the firms are facing real losses, which will almost certainly curtail lending, and economic growth, this year.
The second problem is that real estate and stocks remain fairly expensive. This shows just how big the bubbles were: despite the recent declines, stock prices and home values have still not returned to historical norms.
David Rosenberg, a Merrill Lynch economist, says that the stock market is overvalued by 10 percent relative to corporate earnings and interest rates. And remember that stocks usually fall more than they should during a bear market, much as they rise more than they should during a bull market.
The situation with house prices looks worse. Until 2000, the relationship between house prices and rents remained fairly steady. The same could be said about house prices relative to household incomes and mortgage rates. But the boom of the last decade changed this entirely.
For prices to return to the old norm, they would still need to fall 30 percent across much of Florida, California and the Southwest and about 20 percent in the Northeast. This could happen quickly, or prices could remain stagnant for years while incomes and rents caught up.
Cheaper stocks and houses will benefit many people — namely those who don’t yet own a home and still have most of their 401(k) investing in front of them. But the price declines will also lead directly to the third big economic problem.
Consumer spending kept on rising for the last 16 years largely because families tapped into their newfound wealth, often taking out loans to supplement their income. This increase in debt — as a recent study co-written by the vice chairman of the Fed dryly put it — “is not likely to be repeated.” So just as rising asset values cushioned the last two downturns, falling values could aggravate the next one.
“What people have done is make an assumption that these prices could continue rising at the rate they had been,” said Ed McKelvey, an economist at Goldman Sachs. “And that does seem to have been an unreasonable assumption.”
Certainly, there are some forces to push in the other direction. Outside of Wall Street, corporate balance sheets remain remarkably strong, while the recent fall in the dollar will help American companies to sell more goods overseas.
But it’s hard not to believe that the economy will pay a price for the speculative binge of the last two decades, either by going through a tough recession or an extended period of disappointing growth. As is already happening, banks will become less willing to lend money, households will become less willing to spend money they don’t have and investors will become more alert to risk.
Back in 2004, Ben Bernanke, then a Federal Reserve governor, borrowed a phrase from an academic research paper to give these happy developments a name: “the great moderation.”
These days, though, the great moderation isn’t looking quite so great — or so moderate.
The recent financial turmoil has many causes, but they are tied to a basic fear that some of the economic successes of the last generation may yet turn out to be a mirage. That helps explain why problems in the American subprime mortgage market could have spread so quickly through the world’s financial system. On Tuesday, Mr. Bernanke, who is now the Fed chairman, presided over the steepest one-day interest rate cut in the central bank’s history.
The great moderation now seems to have depended — in part — on a huge speculative bubble, first in stocks and then real estate, that hid the economy’s rough edges. Everyone from first-time home buyers to Wall Street chief executives made bets they did not fully understand, and then spent money as if those bets couldn’t go bad. For the past 16 years, American consumers have increased their overall spending every single quarter, which is almost twice as long as any previous streak.
Now, some worry, comes the payback. Martin Feldstein, the éminence grise of Republican economists, says he is concerned that the economy “could slip into a recession and that the recession could be a long, deep, severe one.” In Monday’s Democratic presidential debate, Barack Obama made the same argument: “We could be sliding into an extraordinary recession,” he said.
In the next breath, of course, Mr. Obama suggested that the right policies might still help, while Mr. Feldstein has said that a recession isn’t yet a sure thing. And much of the great moderation is real. Computers allow managers to run their businesses more efficiently and avoid some of the wild swings. The Fed and central banks in other countries have learned from their past mistakes.
But a recession is now more likely than not. It may well have started already. The Philadelphia Fed reported Tuesday that the economy shrank in 23 states last month, including Ohio, Missouri and Arizona, and was stagnant in seven others. California and Florida, with their plunging home values, may soon join the recession list.
The bigger question is how severe the recession will be if it does come to pass. The last two, in 1990-1 and 2001, have been rather mild, which is a crucial part of the great moderation mystique. There are three reasons, though, to think the next recession may not be.
First, Wall Street hasn’t yet come clean. Even after last week, when JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo announced big losses in their consumer credit businesses, financial service firms have still probably gone public with less than half of their mortgage-related losses, according to Moody’s Economy.com. They’re not being dishonest; they just haven’t untangled all of their complex investments.
“Part of the big uncertainty,” Raghuram G. Rajan, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said, “is where the bodies are buried.”
As Mr. Rajan pointed out, this situation is more severe than the crisis involving Long Term Capital Management in the late 1990s. That was a case in which a limited set of bad investments, largely at one firm, had the potential to drive down the value of other firms’ holdings in the short term. Those firms then might have stopped lending money because they no longer had the capital to do so. But their own balance sheets were largely healthy.
This time, the firms are facing real losses, which will almost certainly curtail lending, and economic growth, this year.
The second problem is that real estate and stocks remain fairly expensive. This shows just how big the bubbles were: despite the recent declines, stock prices and home values have still not returned to historical norms.
David Rosenberg, a Merrill Lynch economist, says that the stock market is overvalued by 10 percent relative to corporate earnings and interest rates. And remember that stocks usually fall more than they should during a bear market, much as they rise more than they should during a bull market.
The situation with house prices looks worse. Until 2000, the relationship between house prices and rents remained fairly steady. The same could be said about house prices relative to household incomes and mortgage rates. But the boom of the last decade changed this entirely.
For prices to return to the old norm, they would still need to fall 30 percent across much of Florida, California and the Southwest and about 20 percent in the Northeast. This could happen quickly, or prices could remain stagnant for years while incomes and rents caught up.
Cheaper stocks and houses will benefit many people — namely those who don’t yet own a home and still have most of their 401(k) investing in front of them. But the price declines will also lead directly to the third big economic problem.
Consumer spending kept on rising for the last 16 years largely because families tapped into their newfound wealth, often taking out loans to supplement their income. This increase in debt — as a recent study co-written by the vice chairman of the Fed dryly put it — “is not likely to be repeated.” So just as rising asset values cushioned the last two downturns, falling values could aggravate the next one.
“What people have done is make an assumption that these prices could continue rising at the rate they had been,” said Ed McKelvey, an economist at Goldman Sachs. “And that does seem to have been an unreasonable assumption.”
Certainly, there are some forces to push in the other direction. Outside of Wall Street, corporate balance sheets remain remarkably strong, while the recent fall in the dollar will help American companies to sell more goods overseas.
But it’s hard not to believe that the economy will pay a price for the speculative binge of the last two decades, either by going through a tough recession or an extended period of disappointing growth. As is already happening, banks will become less willing to lend money, households will become less willing to spend money they don’t have and investors will become more alert to risk.
An interesting post above. Further to this, check out information by Mr. H.S. Dent who is forecasting a Depression in the U.S starting around late 2009 to late 2010. His main theory is due to the massive retirement and slowing in spending of the Baby boomers. This in itself is not a major issue, the problem is that there is no-one to replace this massive group of people and their current spending habits.
b.
b.
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Just to add to the great economic theory.
Asians do not have the ''US's'' or ''West's'' consumer spending mentality either.
After all the great depression was engineered by no one else but the(US) banks themselves.
Re creating History by repeating it?And,when there is no other excuse,the US tends to go to war anyway.
Asians do not have the ''US's'' or ''West's'' consumer spending mentality either.
After all the great depression was engineered by no one else but the(US) banks themselves.
Re creating History by repeating it?And,when there is no other excuse,the US tends to go to war anyway.
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The Great Depression of the thirties remains the most important economic event in American history. It caused enormous hardship for tens of millions of people and the failure of a large fraction of the nation's banks, businesses, and farms. It transformed national politics by vastly expanding government, which was increasingly expected to stabilize the economy and to prevent suffering. Democrats became the majority party. In 1929 the Republicans controlled the White House and Congress. By 1933, the Democrats had the presidency and, with huge margins, Congress (310-117 in the House, and 60-35 in the Senate). President Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal gave birth to the American version of the welfare state. Social Security, unemployment insurance, and federal family assistance all began in the thirties.
It is hard for those who did not live through it to grasp the full force of the worldwide depression. Between 1930 and 1939 U.S. unemployment averaged 18.2 percent. The economy's output of goods and services (gross national product) declined 30 percent between 1929 and 1933 and recovered to the 1929 level only in 1939. Prices of almost everything (farm products, raw materials, industrial goods, stocks) fell dramatically. Farm prices, for instance, dropped 51 percent from 1929 to 1933. World trade shriveled: between 1929 and 1933 it shrank 65 percent in dollar value and 25 percent in unit volume. Most nations suffered. In 1932 Britain's unemployment was 17.6 percent. Germany's depression hastened the rise of Hitler and, thereby, contributed to World War II.
The depression is best understood as the final chapter of the breakdown of the worldwide economic order. The breakdown started with World War I and ended in the thirties with the collapse of the gold standard. As the depression deepened, governments tried to protect their reserves of gold by keeping interest rates high and credit tight for too long. This had a devastating impact on credit, spending, and prices, and an ordinary business slump became a calamity. What ultimately ended the depression was World War II. Military spending and mobilization reduced the U.S. unemployment rate to 1.9 percent by 1943.
With hindsight it seems amazing that governments did not act sooner and more forcefully to end the depression. The fact that they did not attests to how different people's expectations and world politics were in the thirties. The depression can be understood only in the context of the times. Consider four huge differences between then and now:
It is hard for those who did not live through it to grasp the full force of the worldwide depression. Between 1930 and 1939 U.S. unemployment averaged 18.2 percent. The economy's output of goods and services (gross national product) declined 30 percent between 1929 and 1933 and recovered to the 1929 level only in 1939. Prices of almost everything (farm products, raw materials, industrial goods, stocks) fell dramatically. Farm prices, for instance, dropped 51 percent from 1929 to 1933. World trade shriveled: between 1929 and 1933 it shrank 65 percent in dollar value and 25 percent in unit volume. Most nations suffered. In 1932 Britain's unemployment was 17.6 percent. Germany's depression hastened the rise of Hitler and, thereby, contributed to World War II.
The depression is best understood as the final chapter of the breakdown of the worldwide economic order. The breakdown started with World War I and ended in the thirties with the collapse of the gold standard. As the depression deepened, governments tried to protect their reserves of gold by keeping interest rates high and credit tight for too long. This had a devastating impact on credit, spending, and prices, and an ordinary business slump became a calamity. What ultimately ended the depression was World War II. Military spending and mobilization reduced the U.S. unemployment rate to 1.9 percent by 1943.
With hindsight it seems amazing that governments did not act sooner and more forcefully to end the depression. The fact that they did not attests to how different people's expectations and world politics were in the thirties. The depression can be understood only in the context of the times. Consider four huge differences between then and now:
- 1. The gold standard. Most money was paper, as it is now, but governments were obligated, if requested, to redeem that paper for gold. This "convertibility" put an upper limit on the amount of paper currency governments could print, and thus prevented inflation. There was no tradition (as there is today) of continuous, modest inflation. Most countries went off the gold standard during World War I, and restoring it was a major postwar aim. Britain, for instance, returned to gold in 1925. Other countries backed their paper money not with gold, but with other currencies—mainly U.S. dollars and British pounds—that were convertible into gold. As a result flexibility of governments was limited. A loss of gold (or convertible currencies) often forced governments to raise interest rates. The higher interest rates discouraged conversion of interest-bearing deposits into gold and bolstered confidence that inflation would not break the commitment to gold.
- 2. Economic policy. Apart from the gold standard, economic policy barely existed. There was little belief that governments could, or should, prevent business slumps. These were seen as natural, therapeutic, and self-correcting. The lower wages and interest rates caused by slumps would spur recovery. The 1920-21 downturn (when industrial production fell 25 percent) had preceded the prosperous twenties. "People will work harder, live a more moral life," Andrew Mellon, Treasury secretary under President Herbert Hoover, said after the depression started. "Enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people," he claimed. One exception to the hands-off attitude was the Federal Reserve, created in 1913. It was charged with the responsibility for providing emergency funds to banks so that surprise withdrawals would not trigger bank runs and a financial panic.
3. Production patterns. Farming and raw materials were much more important parts of the economy than they are today. This meant that lower commodity prices could cripple domestic prosperity and world trade, because price declines destroyed the purchasing power of farmers and other primary producers (including entire nations). In 1929 farming accounted for 23 percent of U.S. employment (versus 2.5 percent today). Two-fifths of world trade was in farm products, another fifth in other raw materials. Poor countries (including countries in Latin America, Asia, and Central Europe) exported food and raw materials and imported manufactured goods from industrial nations.
4. The impact of World War I. Wartime inflation, when the gold standard had been suspended, raised prices and inspired fears that gold stocks were inadequate to provide backing for enlarged money supplies at the new, higher price level. This was one reason that convertible currencies, such as the dollar and pound, were used as gold substitutes. The war weakened Britain, left Germany with massive reparations payments, and split the Austro-Hungarian Empire into many countries. These countries, plus Germany, depended on foreign loans (in convertible currencies) to pay for their imports. The arrangement was unstable because any withdrawal of short-term loans would force the borrowing countries to retrench, which could cripple world trade.
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It's my understanding that the Hoover Administration actually pushed the U.S. down the slippery slope by increasing taxes and import duties at precisely the wrong moment.
On the current crisis: Did we all believe that the 'good times' would roll forever? It's the ebb and flow of world history repeating itself. TC
On the current crisis: Did we all believe that the 'good times' would roll forever? It's the ebb and flow of world history repeating itself. TC
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Scope and Content Note
The Foreign Affairs series (22 linear feet) contains correspondence and copies
of State Department documents forwarded by the Secretary of State to the President
for his information and attention. This series is arranged in seven sub-series, each of
which is more fully described below:
The Countries sub-series concerns routine matters related to individual countries
with cross-references to such subjects as the moratorium, the standstill agreement,
reparations, and disarmament. The finding aid lists names of American representatives
to each country as a convenient cross reference to the Diplomats sub-series. Arranged
alphabetically by name of country and thereunder chronologically.
The Diplomats sub-series concerns the appointment and resignation of American
diplomats and requests by American nationals for special treatment while traveling
abroad. The Secretary's File, the Individuals File, and the President's Personal File
contain additional references to correspondence with these diplomats and citizens.
Arranged alphabetically by name of diplomat and thereunder chronologically.
The Disarmament sub-series reflects the efforts of the Hoover administration to
promote international disarmament. Related papers may be found in the Subject File,
the Cabinet Offices, and the President's Personal File series. Arrangement is chronological.
The Financial sub-series concerns the moratorium agreement, the standstill
agreement, and war debts and reparations. Related papers may be found in the State
and Treasury Departments sections of the Cabinet Offices series and in the Subject File
under "Business," "Chronology of Important Economic and Financial Events," and
"Financial Matters". This sub-series is arranged as a chronological correspondence file
followed by subject files arranged alphabetically.
The General Subjects sub-series concerns foreign affairs questions which do not
fall within the province of the other sub-series, such as: "Inter-American High
Commission," "League of Nations," "Peace," and "Treaties". Arranged alphabetically.
The Judicial sub-series concerns the codification of international law, the
appointment of American representatives to the Permanent Court of Arbitration, and
the Permanent Court of International Justice (World Court). Related papers may be
found in the President's Personal File (Permanent Court of International Justice).
Arranged alphabetically by subject.
The Manchurian Crisis sub-series relates to the efforts of the Hoover administration,
in cooperation with other nations and the League of Nations, to bring about a cessation
of hostilities between China and Japan. Related papers may be found in the Cabinet
Offices series under State Department and War Department. Arrangement is chronological.
The Foreign Affairs series (22 linear feet) contains correspondence and copies
of State Department documents forwarded by the Secretary of State to the President
for his information and attention. This series is arranged in seven sub-series, each of
which is more fully described below:
The Countries sub-series concerns routine matters related to individual countries
with cross-references to such subjects as the moratorium, the standstill agreement,
reparations, and disarmament. The finding aid lists names of American representatives
to each country as a convenient cross reference to the Diplomats sub-series. Arranged
alphabetically by name of country and thereunder chronologically.
The Diplomats sub-series concerns the appointment and resignation of American
diplomats and requests by American nationals for special treatment while traveling
abroad. The Secretary's File, the Individuals File, and the President's Personal File
contain additional references to correspondence with these diplomats and citizens.
Arranged alphabetically by name of diplomat and thereunder chronologically.
The Disarmament sub-series reflects the efforts of the Hoover administration to
promote international disarmament. Related papers may be found in the Subject File,
the Cabinet Offices, and the President's Personal File series. Arrangement is chronological.
The Financial sub-series concerns the moratorium agreement, the standstill
agreement, and war debts and reparations. Related papers may be found in the State
and Treasury Departments sections of the Cabinet Offices series and in the Subject File
under "Business," "Chronology of Important Economic and Financial Events," and
"Financial Matters". This sub-series is arranged as a chronological correspondence file
followed by subject files arranged alphabetically.
The General Subjects sub-series concerns foreign affairs questions which do not
fall within the province of the other sub-series, such as: "Inter-American High
Commission," "League of Nations," "Peace," and "Treaties". Arranged alphabetically.
The Judicial sub-series concerns the codification of international law, the
appointment of American representatives to the Permanent Court of Arbitration, and
the Permanent Court of International Justice (World Court). Related papers may be
found in the President's Personal File (Permanent Court of International Justice).
Arranged alphabetically by subject.
The Manchurian Crisis sub-series relates to the efforts of the Hoover administration,
in cooperation with other nations and the League of Nations, to bring about a cessation
of hostilities between China and Japan. Related papers may be found in the Cabinet
Offices series under State Department and War Department. Arrangement is chronological.