International money into Lebanon, if and when it does happen, is not going to make a blind bit of difference to the world economy.
There are many pressures on that economy at the moment, and most of them are inflationary. Inflation means higher interest rates, which slow - or even stop - industrial growth. If higher rates are applied quickly and fairly ruthlessly, those inflationary pressures can be halted - if they are under the influence of the economy setting the rates. At the moment, the main inflationary pressure is fuel (oil, gas and electricity) costs, most of which will not respond to interest rate changes in the US or EU. That means that those extra and increasing costs, along with those caused by the inevitable higher interest rates, must continue be absorbed by industries out of margins which are reducing due to competitive pressures, and need to be factored into long-term costings in those companies which have long term policies. Which isn't many.
I think that the West is going to suffer in the short to medium term because of these inflationary pressures, and that the airline industry will exaggerate the general trend, as it always does. When will the downturn come? I think it's already started, but it's a gentle slope as yet. I haven't read an economic forecast yet that suggests that oil prices are likely to drop significantly, and oil futures suggest longer-term prices of $100+ a barrel in the next year or two. With aviation fuel at $750 or so a tonne right now (it was $250 only two years ago), that suggests that $1000 - $1100 a tonne is not far away. Few airlines can sustain a further 25 - 30% increase in fuel prices without drawing in the financial reins somewhat. And now the EU is set to impose fuel taxes...
I'd guess that we won't see much change this year, but that the evidence will begin to stack up next year that a general downturn is on the way. Maybe next year, maybe in two years' time. It could then take 18 months to 3 years for us to reach the bottom of that trough before we start climbing out of it again. How deep will the trough be? Too difficult to judge; there are far too many uncertainties to even hazard a guess - especially for a non-expert like me. It could be a minor blip, or it could be a significant slowdown affecting most industrial and financial areas. The only thing that's certain is that it will come, and that we'll look back on 2004-2006 (as we did on 1997-2001) as one of aviation's high spots.
Scroggs