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Kendell/Australiawide - "aviation experts"

 
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Old 15th May 2002, 07:12
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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A very interesting thing is happening at Kendells engineering.

The stores are filling up with componants with little red tags on them.

They are fast running out of spares to keep the aircraft flying.

One wonders what will be left to liquidate after the aircraft stop flying in a very short time.
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Old 15th May 2002, 10:42
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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Guru.

I am country born and raised and I have never lived in a capital city!! However regardless of my personal profile you have still failed to answer my question.

Which rural communities will be without a service???

Also I do not mean any disrespect to the crew at Kendell, I have some good buddy's there, but I do not want to see them hurt by someone's gross ego or financial incompetence. I believe the hard questions need to be asked!

Ice.



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Old 15th May 2002, 11:08
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Tail_wheel
Aesop got stiffed by the administrators for his writing fee from the last effort and now is seeking copyright and residuals from them and the new players for ripping off his plot. There's just no justice.


Torres got it in one.

The reality is that up to Aus$20 mill in equity (not debt "equity") may be required if the combined airlines are to have any chance of success.
And by equity I'm sure he doesn't mean capitalising the employee benefits and entitlements.

They should throw the FLEW script away and try something original, like putting real cash money in, the other path has been proven to not work.
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Old 15th May 2002, 21:33
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Yes, Gaunty, I'm talking about significant cash in the bank, not paper equity achieved thru conversion of employee benefits, revaluation of assets and possibly capitalisation of goodwill. A debt to real equity ratio not exceeding 1.5 : 1.

And that cash in the bank must be the better part of at least four months total operating costs, probably around $20 mill. And I think I've "done the airline thing" often enough to speak from experience.

It has become increasingly obvious in recent months that from the Mum and Dad investor to institutional investor in Australia, no one is interested in investing in aviation.
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Old 16th May 2002, 03:07
  #25 (permalink)  

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Torres

Given the evidence and the abundance of strolling adventurers of no fixed percentage, why would we be surprised.

Small Airline Economics 101.

Rule 1. There always has to be more cash coming in than going out.

Rule 2. Thou shalt not use the employees entitlements as capital or loan funds.

Rule 3. Thou shalt apply the 'Torres' function to your cash flow projections and have a minimum of 4 months operating cash in the bank at all times.

Rule 4. Said operating cash must be real unencumbered cash otherwise know as CAPITAL.

Rule 5. Thou shalt not exceed a debt to real unencumbered equity of a minimum of 1.5 : 1.0 at all times.

Rule 6. There always has to be more cash coming in than going out.

Rule 7. Smoke and mirrors marketing projections and statistics are to be banned and forever forsworn from the precincts of the organisation. They are either there or they are not. The entire population of Bullamakanka is not going to travel weekly to anywhere.

Rule 8. Like the Real Estate maxim of location, location, location, frequency, frequency, frequency will be your watchword lest your market discover the convenience of the motor car.

Rule 9. The business is about passengers, their transport needs and profit stupid, not providing employment for pilots and playground for aviation enthusiasts or cash flow for other pursuits.

Rule 10. Thou shalt not make the punishment fit the crime in the selection of aircraft equipment and all times hold in your view that you are effectively owned by the community that you serve and that they will sell you down the river if you dont.
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Old 18th May 2002, 23:38
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As far as I know, Terry Snow is not involved in the deal. He is keen to see Australiawide set up base in CBR but apparently they aren't at all interested. This is probably what the meeting between the two was about.
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Old 19th May 2002, 01:09
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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Iceman, as far as I can figure out, and some of this may not be quite right but.......(deep breath)
Ceduna, Olympic Dam, Broken Hill, Merimbula, Moruya, Orange, Bathurst, Parkes, Cudal, Lismore, Griffith and Narrandra......ahhhh!

Without starting fights, perhaps we should show these guys who are still doing a good job some support instead of telling them that their days are numbered. I wish them well and hope for everyone's sake - employees, local communities and AWA that it all works out. Thats my two cents worth.
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Old 19th May 2002, 01:42
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Torres...

It has become increasingly obvious in recent months that from the Mum and Dad investor to institutional investor in Australia, no one is interested in investing in aviation.
Really?!! Have a look at the Qantas share price for say, the last 12 months!


http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/charts.jsp

Last edited by Icarus2001; 19th May 2002 at 01:56.
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Old 19th May 2002, 02:06
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Whats "Australiawide" going to do when they have Eastern and a VB reagional to compete with in the not too distant future ?

Wonder if they will be able to keek 4 months operating capital in the bank at all times then ??

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Old 19th May 2002, 07:33
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Well said, Gaunty!! I had a chuckle at your Airline Commandments!

Icarius, it's the exception that makes the rule, although there are better share investments than Qantas. Indeed, Qantas shares would not attract me as a long term investment.

Unfortunately, after the Compass fiascos etc the populance in general are a tad gun shy of investing in aviation. And, I can assure you, every man and his wannabe dog has been trying to raise capital in the Australian capital markets for various "aviation ventures" following the Ansett collapse, without success.

And do you see those with capital raceing to buy Ansett, Flight West, Kendal and Hazelton? If you do, you read different newspapers to me!
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Old 19th May 2002, 07:54
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I disagree Torres but I like your style! Exception proves your case... Hee Hee.
I sold QAN too early and I'll be there when VB floats.

I have to admit if you are an individual with a stash to invest aviation would be the last place to put it. As direct investment in a company not stock. Something about small fortunes...
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Old 19th May 2002, 23:16
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Icarius. Yes, floats can often be an opportunity for short term capital gain. And yes, I suspect the VB float may be just such an opportunity - indeed, VB shares may well be a good long term investment.

My concern with Qantas is that they have significantly increased debt in order to service their approximately 86% market share. Will they be able to service that debt if their market share drops as a result of increased competition from VB domestically or from aggressive international competition? Their debt to equity ratio must be very excessive - one hic-cup in either their market share and yields or in the Australian economy must result in reduced share values and reduced dividends.

That is precisely the trap Ansett fell into. After years of increasing debt/reduced equity, Ansett needed it's approximately 50% market share and high fare yields to service and sustain it's level of debt. When it's market share fell to 40% and yields dropped as a result of Impulse and Virgin reduced fares, an impoverished Ansett was unable to service it's debts. The rest is history.
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Old 21st May 2002, 03:18
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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Anyone know when the Australiawide deal is due to settle?

I see this thread started on May 9 with talk of 14 days - is settlement due in two days, by May 23?

And if it fails to settle (due to reticent Governments refusing to hand out blank cheques.........), is the half mega-buck deposit refundable?
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Old 21st May 2002, 03:37
  #34 (permalink)  
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Torres

The kendell website has a press release announcing the fourteen day commitment, dated 7th of May. Dont know, but maybe we will here something today.

regards HH.
 
Old 21st May 2002, 09:45
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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ABC News Online

Posted: Tue, 21 May 2002 18:21 AEST

Australiawide confirms regional airlines purchase

Australiawide Airlines has confirmed it will buy Ansett's two regional subsidiaries, Kendell and Hazelton Airlines, after negotiations with Ansett's administrators ended today.

A contract of sale for both airlines is expected to be agreed on within 14 days.

The Federal Transport Minister, John Anderson, has said the Government would provide financial assistance if the sale went ahead, which may include wiping or reducing Government loans.

A spokesman for the Australiawide Airlines says it is too early to comment on whether there will be any changes to routes or services.

Australiawide spokesman Armon Hicks would not disclose the sale price but confirmed hundreds of staff would be laid off under the deal.

Mr Hicks said Australiawide intended to merge the two airlines and employ 650 staff - down from the current workforce of about 1000.

"We intend to operate the current (flight) network but we will be looking at additional routes once we get up and operating," he said.

The two airlines currently have routes in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania and employ almost 1,000 staff.

AAP

Last edited by Wirraway; 21st May 2002 at 11:14.
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Old 21st May 2002, 10:24
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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Gee, John Anderson, the so-called 'Minister for Qantas' promising assistance to someone other than Qantas. How dare he!
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Old 21st May 2002, 11:41
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Latest statement seems to suggest things might go ahead, with federal and state government assistance.
Hopefully this will happen and many jobs will be saved, but with the track record of the 2 Marks, I would not be getting hopes up too high, and counting too many chooks just yet!!
Good luck to everyone at both companies.
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Old 22nd May 2002, 04:24
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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Another two weeks to settlement date?
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Old 27th May 2002, 13:54
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yeh,,right!

Australianwide Airlines are in it for a quick buck!,,,,,,,,What a gold mine,,,,,,handouts from the government, six figure salaries for the directors, employee entitlements that they can dig into. Lets see how long they'll last, only as long as the handouts persist.
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Old 28th May 2002, 00:14
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I'm sure someone other than Rex has already said it, but......"Yibida Yibida, er.. I can hear that Lady just round the corner"

After 8 months I think everyone has had a gut full !
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