Future of Regional Jet Ops in OZ
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jul 1999
Location: Global
Posts: 460
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Future of Regional Jet Ops in OZ
As reported elsewhere the BAe RJ / RJX is now dead, cancelled. The B717 appears on shaky ground and in the next week Seattle (or Chicago) will decide if it will survive but things aren’t looking good.
We all know that the CRJ is a good product just it lacks the Business class that was part of the market that the aircraft intended to serve. So it too essentially failed in its introduction to OZ.
The current Jungle Jet, has from what I am lead to believe pavement strength limitations that may preclude its operation in regional OZ.
So if the little jets don’t have the PCN, payload range or seat structure to suit the market. The bigger two are extinct or endangered species, what’s next.?
The long fabled BA / QF mega RJ buy appears to be off for now. So its now down to the bigger Jungle Jet and the Doorknob.
I honestly believe that this time some serious thought will have to be made as to which system to purchase. The Southern/NJS/Impulse guys might all be rubbing their hands with the thought that there may be something new around the corner. But history dictates that the plane you fly will usually be made by the lowest bidder regardless of suitability or capability.
Food for thought.
We all know that the CRJ is a good product just it lacks the Business class that was part of the market that the aircraft intended to serve. So it too essentially failed in its introduction to OZ.
The current Jungle Jet, has from what I am lead to believe pavement strength limitations that may preclude its operation in regional OZ.
So if the little jets don’t have the PCN, payload range or seat structure to suit the market. The bigger two are extinct or endangered species, what’s next.?
The long fabled BA / QF mega RJ buy appears to be off for now. So its now down to the bigger Jungle Jet and the Doorknob.
I honestly believe that this time some serious thought will have to be made as to which system to purchase. The Southern/NJS/Impulse guys might all be rubbing their hands with the thought that there may be something new around the corner. But history dictates that the plane you fly will usually be made by the lowest bidder regardless of suitability or capability.
Food for thought.
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 148
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
All is not lost. I think Fairchild/Dornier are looking at a 90 seater referred to as 928 jet which is in addition to the 728 jet., Embraer as well with the ERJ190, and the CRJ900 is also availible in 4+86 seats. The next size up in addition to the B717 is the Airbus 318, to come on line in about 18 months. The CRJ 200 currently in Aus of which Ansett/Kendell have 12 would in my opinion be difficult to make money out of, unless you were able to ramp up the utilization to approx 4000hrs per annum per aircraft and get approx $5000.00 per hour in revenue. Ie $20,000,000.00 million in revenue per annum per aircraft. Given the markets, curfews and everything else it looks to be statistically impossible to achieve. Also there needs to be a significant lowering of crew costs. Examine the pay scales for VB, Impulse and CRJ Capitans and you will see what I mean. The CRJ cost approx USD $22,000,000 for 50 seats, the B717 approx USD$ 32,000,000 for 107 seats approx and I think the A318 is about USD $46,000,000. The disparity in capital cost per seat is not in favour of the CRJ.
I suggest for further information you look up the manufacturers web sites and read the May 2001 edition of Business and Commercial Aviation being the 2001 Purchase Planning Handbook from page 120 on. I am sure after doing this brief research you will easily form an opinion as to the future of Regional Jet Ops in Oz. It will be interesting to see where these new generation jets, to come on stream over the next 4-5 years end up in the economic equation, which may have a bearing on the outcome, but given the recent example of the introduction of the CRJ'S by a company without adequate financial reserves a similar fate could well be the outcome.
PS:-
Some domestic jets in order to keep up the utilization fly all night. Example Adl, ASP, DRW, then Den Pasar, DRW, CNS, BNE. Even in times gone by Taa foght legal battles for years to operate DRW, PHE, PER and return to keep up utilization and provide competition to MMA on the west coast service. This was operated with the DC9-32's VH-TJJ to VH-TJS. etc. I don't think they made money on the sevice but never the less still operated it.
It will be interesting to see what is used to replace the BAE146's on the west coast in due course as there are technical reasons for not operating the CRJ 200 and ERJ 145's over there. In the past B727-100 VH-TJB was the highest houred airframe of the type in the world when sold by TAA and had averaged in excess of 4000 flying hours per annum. Similarly TAA's F27 - 500 QC VH-TQN to VH-TQS, fleet reqularly topped the annual utilization throughout the world for that type with in excess of 4000 per annum being flown.
[ 28 November 2001: Message edited by: rpt2 ]
I suggest for further information you look up the manufacturers web sites and read the May 2001 edition of Business and Commercial Aviation being the 2001 Purchase Planning Handbook from page 120 on. I am sure after doing this brief research you will easily form an opinion as to the future of Regional Jet Ops in Oz. It will be interesting to see where these new generation jets, to come on stream over the next 4-5 years end up in the economic equation, which may have a bearing on the outcome, but given the recent example of the introduction of the CRJ'S by a company without adequate financial reserves a similar fate could well be the outcome.
PS:-
Some domestic jets in order to keep up the utilization fly all night. Example Adl, ASP, DRW, then Den Pasar, DRW, CNS, BNE. Even in times gone by Taa foght legal battles for years to operate DRW, PHE, PER and return to keep up utilization and provide competition to MMA on the west coast service. This was operated with the DC9-32's VH-TJJ to VH-TJS. etc. I don't think they made money on the sevice but never the less still operated it.
It will be interesting to see what is used to replace the BAE146's on the west coast in due course as there are technical reasons for not operating the CRJ 200 and ERJ 145's over there. In the past B727-100 VH-TJB was the highest houred airframe of the type in the world when sold by TAA and had averaged in excess of 4000 flying hours per annum. Similarly TAA's F27 - 500 QC VH-TQN to VH-TQS, fleet reqularly topped the annual utilization throughout the world for that type with in excess of 4000 per annum being flown.
[ 28 November 2001: Message edited by: rpt2 ]
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Australia
Posts: 97
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I don't see any more regional jets here for a while.
I know Eastern are getting another 3 Dash 8 300's in January. That seems to be the way Qantas want to go so that will dictate what happens here.
Possibly indicates a move for some of Impulses 1900's as well?
I know Eastern are getting another 3 Dash 8 300's in January. That seems to be the way Qantas want to go so that will dictate what happens here.
Possibly indicates a move for some of Impulses 1900's as well?
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Living next door to Alan
Posts: 1,521
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Hog Driver wrote:
So were the Apollo series of vehicles which got man to the moon 
sorryJust had to write it
But history dictates that the plane you fly will usually be made by the lowest bidder regardless of suitability or capability.
sorryJust had to write it
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Oz
Posts: 152
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
In an international aviation mag dated Oct. 2001, the RJX was coming along nicely, meeting or exceeding Avro's expectations, and with I believe quite a few firm orders, has this all gone awry in the last month ?
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Sunny Brisbane
Posts: 21
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Apparentley SSQ sheds are to go by the end of the year... 3 parked at QF maintainence in BNE today,looking awfully like the 340's did before dissappearing. And heard 1900's to go and SSQ to become all DHC-8 as per EA.
Guest
Posts: n/a
With the changes in the Aus marketplace since Ansett's demise the regional skies are up for grabs again.
QF regionals all of a sudden are just too small and there is therefore a move of larger aircraft toward regional routs by them to cope with the overflow. This is begining to find it's feet, however it won't last long.
One thing is sure, and that wherever there is market demand, then business will move accommodate that demand. This means in short that smaller operators will move to operate in regional routes. This will happen quite quickly, and indeed regional aviation has already been moving to make money where markets have demanded.
For the free market, the regional skies will develop themselves to become the area showing the most movement in the near future.
This battle won't be fought with jets, I am guessing a highly competitive market resultent from the above will see a resurgence in the 19 seat market in AUS.
For mainline, as suitors rich in surplus capacity line up to provide domestic services in AUS over the next six months, the current shortfall in domestic capacity will turn to excess calling for a quick rethink of current capacity based strategies.
This will all vary from time to time with startup failures that will inevitabely occur with those who step in unprepared in the wake of Ansett.
Lets see if in 6 months with heindsight I am near the mark?????
QF regionals all of a sudden are just too small and there is therefore a move of larger aircraft toward regional routs by them to cope with the overflow. This is begining to find it's feet, however it won't last long.
One thing is sure, and that wherever there is market demand, then business will move accommodate that demand. This means in short that smaller operators will move to operate in regional routes. This will happen quite quickly, and indeed regional aviation has already been moving to make money where markets have demanded.
For the free market, the regional skies will develop themselves to become the area showing the most movement in the near future.
This battle won't be fought with jets, I am guessing a highly competitive market resultent from the above will see a resurgence in the 19 seat market in AUS.
For mainline, as suitors rich in surplus capacity line up to provide domestic services in AUS over the next six months, the current shortfall in domestic capacity will turn to excess calling for a quick rethink of current capacity based strategies.
This will all vary from time to time with startup failures that will inevitabely occur with those who step in unprepared in the wake of Ansett.
Lets see if in 6 months with heindsight I am near the mark?????
