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Deflowered Virgin Blue Cash Crisis ?

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Deflowered Virgin Blue Cash Crisis ?

 
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Old 19th Nov 2001, 16:24
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Post Deflowered Virgin Blue Cash Crisis ?

How many times have we seen companies that are about to fold talk about takeovers.

Are we seeing the beginning of the end for VB ?

Industry and government talk is that they have a severe cash flow problem; plus they are hampered by airport access which is directly stopping growth.

Lots of new aircraft in a softening market is not good news.

No wonder the kite flying about Ansett's terminals and takeovers etc etc.

There is no way VB in their own right could take on what was left of Ansett.

The question is one of who is standing in the back ground waiting to pick up the pieces.

Will the real owner please stand up ?
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Old 20th Nov 2001, 03:01
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"Industry and government talk is that they have a severe cash flow problem."

Where on earth did you get this uninformed and eroneous crap? You get knocked back for a job with Virgin?

Wind up alert!!!!!
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Old 20th Nov 2001, 07:30
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Virgin wants SYD slots. The former AN slots are currently only available to whomever runs AN II. If Virgin buys AN II, then they get the slots.
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Old 20th Nov 2001, 07:50
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Have a look at the Virgin Atlantic P&L and Balance sheet and you will understand the need for Liquidity.
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Old 20th Nov 2001, 09:57
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I think the Management of VB are being very prudent. Can someone tell me VB would have a cash flow problem. Surely if their is a cash flow problem and they are making a profit as they have stated they are then the banks would be queing up to lend them some money. I would if I was in there position be making every possible move to raise equityy for my business and certainly be looking to get into bed with another party if they were interested in and able to buy terminal assets at Australian Airports.
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Old 20th Nov 2001, 10:05
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VIRGIN ARE FOR SALE

This is what Branson does when the going gets tough.
If they are for sale and NEED an investor how can they possibly consider buying Ansett

OOPS, WHERE DID I THROW THAT TORN UP CHEQUE??
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Old 20th Nov 2001, 11:33
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If my memory serves me correct Ansett offered to buy VB not long before they folded?!?

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Old 20th Nov 2001, 13:16
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I would imagine VB's margins would be very tight. They will not want another round of price cutting when AN starts again with a cashed up Fox/Lew company.

This is what the latest publicity about VB is all about.

Does anyone know what their cash position really is?

VB will be desperate for someone along the lines of the Lang Corporation to put some money into it, otherwise they will be bleeding badly in the first half of 2002.
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Old 21st Nov 2001, 02:28
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This is all a bit of a joke really!

Remember some 3 months ago Sir Richard was on television ripping up a supposed cheque from Ansett(which was in reality a Qantas Credit Union cheque) for the princely sum of $250 million and sporting a huge stupid grin from ear to ear???

As they say 3 months is a long time in aviation.
The man is clearly a fool if that was indeed the offer - what self respecting true business person would knock back that sort of money?
A bit like paying $150,000 for a house and your arch enemy offering you $750,000 for it a year later - would you sell?
Damned straight I would and Im sure most of the readers would also!

Now compliments of Sept 11 Virgin Atlantic has laid off thousands of workers,their cash reserves are critically low and if things dont improve radically over the next 2 months they may have to cease trading.
Yes people - things are that bad!

What would this do to Virgin Blue I wonder?
I would hope the good people there are not affected.

Sir Richard also has other problems on his plate - multiple lawsuits filed against Virgin Transport (operator of the railway used in the Paddington fire last year and being blamed primarily due to poor maintenance I believe) and Virgin European struggling for survival.

The Virgin telecommunications deals were all very expensive to acquire and are giving scant returns for a huge outlay and little recovery in the immediate future if you believe finance analysts.

All in all things are not fairing well for Sir Dick - but time will tell.
 
Old 21st Nov 2001, 02:55
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Dambuster im not sure if you understand the rules of business. Yes Branson declined the offer from Ansett for $250 MILL 3 months ago because he knew that it would be worth much more than that in the future. So youre saying if YOU bought your house for $150,000 and someone offered you $250,000 for it 12 months later, but you know that its going to be worth $350,000 in 12 months time, you would sell Im not sure thats a smart business deal. With the loads that VB are carrying I would struggle to believe that there is a cash flow problem there, but we are all just speculating as there is only a handfull of people who would really know.
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Old 21st Nov 2001, 04:13
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Statorblade,

I agree. Offering publicly to buy something when you're on the bones of your arse is the oldest con trick in the world. People immediately think that you must be of considerable financial substance or you wouldn't be making the offer.

Branson is what could be called a true enterpreneur. More business he starts fail than survive. Any observer with a knowledge of business would say that his biggest mistake was selling Virgin Records, or possibly starting Virgin Atlantic. He used the sale to prop up the airline, and has done that a number of times with other enterprises.

I guess time will tell. Incidentally, the offer from ANZ/AN to buy VB some months ago was nowhere near $250M, but when he announced that it was, it suited ANZ/AN because THEY wanted their creditors to believe that they had plenty of cash also.

[ 21 November 2001: Message edited by: Kaptin_X ]
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Old 21st Nov 2001, 04:20
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Just because VB's loads are (supposedly) full at the moment, thanks to ansett, not of their own merit. Lets face it, the public does not have much of a choice!
VB's loads need to be full for them to break even...and if things are so wonderful and they are making a profit and doing fine WHY ARE THEY FOR SALE???
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Old 21st Nov 2001, 04:52
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GWPSOR, Branson is not SELLING VB,he is offering 51% of the company,not 100%.You seem to know very little of the company, which is highlighted by the comment that they need to be full every flight to make any money. They have the lowest costings of the three airlines flying, so what load factor would you say QF needed to make a dollar. If you bothered to check the % of seats offered at the discount rates then you might just adjust that figure. I think you presume that all 162 people on a full flight are paying the cheapest fare, they are not!
Kaptin_X answered your question on why Branson is selling half the company, because he wants to use the money raised to finance Virgin Atlantic, not because he is bailing from a sinking ship.If that were the case his name would be Gerry now wouldnt it
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Old 21st Nov 2001, 04:57
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Bugsmasha With respect 51% is the company,51% gives the investor or investor group control.
The only reason you would do that is to get cash (Liquidity) to support other investments.
No businessman who can determine his own fate would ever sell 51% it is giving away control of your soul.
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Old 21st Nov 2001, 05:11
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T I agree with your statement,but with an aussie investor buying 51% of the company,it also opens the door for VB to operate trans tasman flights (as there were issues there before because of the foreign ownership),which is what they have wanted to do for some time.I fully agree that he is using the cash for other interests,as I explained in my previous post.
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Old 21st Nov 2001, 05:47
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Bugsmasha, Profit is good, but at the end of the day it is Liquidity which powers successful business. Liquidity is the one tool that a business has which makes it protected from attack.
Bank Loans or other forms of capital raising are simply putting one's self in the hands of the usurers and thus losing control.
I doubt there is an Australian investor who would put +$150 mil into aviation after 11 Sept and watching the union antics over Ansett. Sad the jobs were lost, but no holder of real capital will invest into such uncertain territory, ROI ???? 2% maybe.
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Old 21st Nov 2001, 06:08
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I can think of two investors who have put well over $150MILL into aviation post Sept 11. Stranger things have happened
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Old 21st Nov 2001, 09:31
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Yes ,well personally I will wait until I see actual money change hands, I doubt that Solly or Lew intend risking any of their personal readies.
If the Federales don't come up with a grant of $165 mill my bet is it will all evaporate.
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