News: AN Dismal load factors
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News: AN Dismal load factors
Passenger freefall dims Ansett hopes
By Steve Creedy, Aviation writer
03oct01
ANSETT Mark II has been given "days to weeks" to survive after the party atmosphere of its relaunch on Saturday failed to attract anywhere near enough passengers to make flights viable.
Ansett stopped revealing passenger loads at the weekend, but investigations in Sydney and Melbourne yesterday, the first full business day of operation, found aircraft carrying as few as 12 passengers.
Even in the traditionally busy evening peak period, the busiest of five planes monitored by The Australian was barely one-third full.
One aviation expert estimated the 144-seat aircraft were losing as much as $5000 a trip.
It is understood forward ticket sales are also failing to meet the projections of Ansett's administrators, international accounting firm Andersen.
Aviation analysts now question not only the new airline's sustainability but whether there would be any buyers.
"We would be very surprised if there are serious buyers who really do exist and the longer it goes on, the less likely we think it is that they will actually emerge," Salomon Smith Barney transport analyst Jason Smith said.
"If current market estimates of Ansett's load factors are maintained, you would have to start to question the days to weeks that the Mark II format could survive.
"Better and more experienced people have tried and failed in the past six months."
Ansett's grim prognosis came as the pilot-driven ANstaff employee syndicate met the administrators and sources revealed that businessman Solomon Lew was a partner in transport magnate Lindsay Fox's plan for the carrier.
The Melbourne business tycoons are examining operating Ansett as a no-frills carrier but are still in the early stages of developing any proposal.
It is understood the pair will not seek significant wage reductions from staff but want productivity improvements from work practice reforms.
A source said they wanted to form a view about the viability of the proposal "sooner rather than later".
"There's a lot of work to be done and at the end of the day, they have to be convinced that they can make a profit doing this," the source said.
"It should be possible to put something together but it won't be easy."
Mr Fox and Mr Lew are among five parties said to be interested in Ansett's trunk routes.
But ANstaff appears to have strong doubts about the model the administrators have chosen to kick-start Ansett.
The model is understood to be based on a no-frills operation using the Airbus A320s as the sole aircraft type.
But the pilots, who say they have some backers, believe the airline should have a wider mix of aircraft servicing the business market.
They have produced a detailed model looking at individual route structures, load factors, average fares and costs.
ANstaff adviser Michael Jones said the administrators were still suffering from a lack of data.
"The model that was presented to us was very different to the model we have been working on," Mr Jones said.
"We outlined to the administrator what we're doing . . . and I think he took some interest in what we said."
In other developments, the ACTU and Qantas were at loggerheads over the flying kangaroo's decision to lease three Air Canada Boeing 767s for trans-Tasman routes, allowing it to redeploy its own planes domestically.
By Steve Creedy, Aviation writer
03oct01
ANSETT Mark II has been given "days to weeks" to survive after the party atmosphere of its relaunch on Saturday failed to attract anywhere near enough passengers to make flights viable.
Ansett stopped revealing passenger loads at the weekend, but investigations in Sydney and Melbourne yesterday, the first full business day of operation, found aircraft carrying as few as 12 passengers.
Even in the traditionally busy evening peak period, the busiest of five planes monitored by The Australian was barely one-third full.
One aviation expert estimated the 144-seat aircraft were losing as much as $5000 a trip.
It is understood forward ticket sales are also failing to meet the projections of Ansett's administrators, international accounting firm Andersen.
Aviation analysts now question not only the new airline's sustainability but whether there would be any buyers.
"We would be very surprised if there are serious buyers who really do exist and the longer it goes on, the less likely we think it is that they will actually emerge," Salomon Smith Barney transport analyst Jason Smith said.
"If current market estimates of Ansett's load factors are maintained, you would have to start to question the days to weeks that the Mark II format could survive.
"Better and more experienced people have tried and failed in the past six months."
Ansett's grim prognosis came as the pilot-driven ANstaff employee syndicate met the administrators and sources revealed that businessman Solomon Lew was a partner in transport magnate Lindsay Fox's plan for the carrier.
The Melbourne business tycoons are examining operating Ansett as a no-frills carrier but are still in the early stages of developing any proposal.
It is understood the pair will not seek significant wage reductions from staff but want productivity improvements from work practice reforms.
A source said they wanted to form a view about the viability of the proposal "sooner rather than later".
"There's a lot of work to be done and at the end of the day, they have to be convinced that they can make a profit doing this," the source said.
"It should be possible to put something together but it won't be easy."
Mr Fox and Mr Lew are among five parties said to be interested in Ansett's trunk routes.
But ANstaff appears to have strong doubts about the model the administrators have chosen to kick-start Ansett.
The model is understood to be based on a no-frills operation using the Airbus A320s as the sole aircraft type.
But the pilots, who say they have some backers, believe the airline should have a wider mix of aircraft servicing the business market.
They have produced a detailed model looking at individual route structures, load factors, average fares and costs.
ANstaff adviser Michael Jones said the administrators were still suffering from a lack of data.
"The model that was presented to us was very different to the model we have been working on," Mr Jones said.
"We outlined to the administrator what we're doing . . . and I think he took some interest in what we said."
In other developments, the ACTU and Qantas were at loggerheads over the flying kangaroo's decision to lease three Air Canada Boeing 767s for trans-Tasman routes, allowing it to redeploy its own planes domestically.
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The administrator has just announced that they are in fact very close to break even with better forward bookings (23,000 to date).
Provided they have some decent yield management systems and tight cost controls, they may just get up, albeit in a smaller operation.
The next issue the administrators must address is catering, however. Lots of bad customer feedback.(understandable).
Provided they have some decent yield management systems and tight cost controls, they may just get up, albeit in a smaller operation.
The next issue the administrators must address is catering, however. Lots of bad customer feedback.(understandable).
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Why can't they serve something like simple prepackaged muffins out of a wicker basket? Won't cost the earth, and it's simple.
A simple free coffee and tea, plus biscuit service would be nice.
That's catering comparable with US or Europe. Better than Virgin.
Cheers,
Justin
A simple free coffee and tea, plus biscuit service would be nice.
That's catering comparable with US or Europe. Better than Virgin.
Cheers,
Justin
