Why would you start operating now?From the end of summer school holidays to Easter is the worst time for airline passenger travel.People have their summer credit cards to pay off,not to mention the new interest rate payments kicking in and the cost of living increases.It’s going to be a tough gig in the current environment.

Because they did not choose when to commence operations, that was determined by CASA and their “processes” as to when the AOC was issued.

Are you suggesting that now they have an AOC they should wait a few months?

Most new businesses are going to lose money for the first few years anyway, what’s the difference when they start.

Have you tried booking a flight lately?

Perfect time to start right now
A good chance to iron out any bugs prior to Easter
Especially as they are likely paying stall, rent, leasing etc with no income and you suggest that continues for another couple of months ?

So first flight is in 11 days, just after school holidays ends, and they haven’t started selling seats yet.

Their route structure is mental, there is a bigger play here what that is is anyone’s guess. Their first flight and subsequent flights for a few weeks will surely be full of travel agents and anyone else who wants a free burn up to PPP and Rocky. 777 seem prepared to loose a billion or two out of this, I’d like to see the playbook inside the boardroom. Keeping their promise to the Aussie ppl won’t be easy.

Jet fuel isn't free. Flying empty aircraft is more expensive than NOT flying empty aircraft,

But think of all the fuel savings and environmental benefits of flying empty.

So what do you suggest Mr Negative

Just keep the birds on the ground?

You can bet your last dollar the first few of months will be choccas......
What with media, PR peeps, flight reviewers, QF staff checking things out
And of course travers waiting for the launch to get their cheap seats

So many on here are just so negative....

777 have a bit if experience with Flair with fares regularly under $50 and sales as low as $9
Granted you can book on a website with Flair, but I'd reckon Bonza will eventually go back to this booking option

Do you not agree that with sub $100 fares, Bonza may very well stimulate travel from regions to the Sunny Coast and beyond?
3-4 day cheap getaways....
And for all those experts that say the 737 MAX is to big, a smaller bird simply can't generate the revenue for this LCC model to succeed
A 100 seater still has similar operating costs but too few seats to be viable at $50 fares

Whilst I concede that a few regional pairs may not perform to Bonzas expectations, I'd reckon that quite a few will

I think that many on here don't understand that the Sunny coast has a large percentage of people that have relocated from interstate and not just Sydney or Melbourne and Sunny Coasters heading off for family reunions both south and north will make up a fair percentage of Bonzas passengers
Add to this, non stop to these regional destinations from Brisbane (yes 1 hour drive to MCY) will also be enticing given the fares on offer
1/3 the price and and a 1 hour drive
Verses
2-3 hour connections at Sydney
So that's another market ripe to be tapped

AB IMO will likely expand into other routes such as OOL CNS BNK and more AVV mid term and long term to SWA

I reckon they have JQ firmly in their sights..............

Likely that will be the case.

Some of these markets will be getting capacity like they have never seen before.

Tamworth (2019) 189,000 passengers. Bonza adding 78,000 seats per year.
Wellcamp (2019) 120,000 passengers. Bonza is adding 155,000 seats per year :eek:
Mildura (2019) 254,000 passengers. Bonza is adding 97,000 seats per year.
Rockhampton (2019) 712,000 passengers. Bonza is adding 213,000 seats per year.
Sunshine Coast 1.2m....Bonza adding 750k seats.

Many of these regional areas have actually being going backward in the last decade with passenger numbers. Some of these areas have had heavy passenger drops within the last decade: Mackay -25%, Townsville FLAT, Gladstone -40%, Rockhampton -20%, Mildura FLAT, Newcastle FLAT, Albury -5%.

A few regional areas which have grown over the last decade are Cairns (+20%), Hobart (+20%), Byron (+30%), Proserpine (+40%)

I think Cairns is a missed opportunity for Bonza, certainly is a very popular centre especially with Chinese tourists. Should have done a base up that way, traffic numbers look quite good once you dive into the data. Tiger had about 800,000 seats per year at its peak into Cairns, similar number to what Bonza are adding to the Sunshine Coast market.

Well, I reckon sunny coast ATC and airport management better get their arse into gear. Should’ve built that complete parallel taxiway. We held at Alpha the other day whilst a VA flight was passing through 5000’. Took them just under 4 minutes to land. We were ready at the holding point but sat there twiddling our thumbs whilst they stooged in to land. When cleared to enter and backtrack, took us just on a minute to roll down and turn around ready to go, VA still would have been about 7-10 miles out. 1 movement every 5 minutes is going to be very painful, for everyone, not just Bonza. They did depart a king air whilst we were backtracking though, perhaps favouring the locals at our expense!!!!!

I/We just want a plane to get us there, sorta on time (within 30 mins) with bags & without a mortgage!
Or a real Full Service domestic.

Currently we have = Zimbabwe Air at twice the price of a private jet charter.

Hope they get a shot at it.

Deal- shall we say $200? "Choccas"- let's say 80% load factor average for the first two months?

And you are missing an important point- where are those markets TO.
Tamworth- 70% to SYD, 30% BNE- very little to Melbourne. So unless they get 100% of BNE pax willing to go MCY...
Wellcamp- Qlink to Sydney. There is no market to MCY and won't be much to MEL.
Rocky-BNE- you get the picture.

The inaugural route will likely be a tough one in the short term. In the next 30 days they need to fill 4,500 seats between the two inaugural cities, going off the start date mentioned above which is just over a week away. February I predict will be very very empty across its network. Most people would already have plans in place for next month, many return to work/school, but I don't know who the traveller is they are going for. Hiring a car at PPP is $1000 a week at the moment. 4WD is mostly sold out.

I guess Bonza cannot sit around until Easter waiting for the demand and time to bank some bookings, I assume they are paying all the staff sitting around doing nothing might as well use the downtime in demand getting in operational routine. At least when Easter/Hols arrive they will be ready to go with heavier patronage after 2 months of bedding ops in.

Wiz, yes the numbers in the current data is to existing cities on other non Bonza carriers, Bonza has told us they are not about taking market share from others, but creating new markets, driving new demand/pulling people from cars etc. I get the point from the Bonza boss, but he cannot control the pricing around Car Hire and Hotels, Car Hire is just off the charts in some areas, $1000 a week. Cheaper to drive, which is completely against the Bonza model and why they are here. The logic is that these seats will essentially just add on to the current seat count at these airpots as mentioned above, I think that is a hard ask. The numbers still seem too excessive for those markets, assuming they are not stealing pax from the others.

But people don't do that every day. And then only to where Bonza flies? Because if they need to go anywhere else, they can just go via Brissie. Relying on very discretionary travel in a very price sensitive market is asking for trouble imo. To establish a viable route you need consistant travel. How many people have a need to go between Milidura and Sunny Coast (or anywhere else for that matter) often enough?

I was waiting for a statistical response from our good friend Dr Tony Webber, alas it has arrived.

Why is everyone ignoring the numbers? Let’s just look past these low xx numbers and just assume the best, hope for the best, and expect nothing else. That is the approach they seem to be taking.

It would be great if such a route network could work. It will one day, just not today.

The article is behind a paywall.

Opinions are like a clitoris.

I want them to do well also, you’re right Icarus, passengers need choice, serious competition is needed to keep the others in check, more options for Pilots and so on.

I want to sit back and back them, but I just can’t get over how poor the data is here. I can’t back this business plan.

When 777 pulls out Plan B and C. Then perhaps us skeptics might. The tagline ‘here for Allstralia’ indicates that they are hellbent on sticking to this plan and not joining the others in city runs. I still think the investor here has other things planned. When this regional plan fails, they are not going to just pack up and head home.

We saw what QF and AN threw at any new entrant in the 80s and 90s, teaming up and repeatedly bludgeoning upstarts into submission
East West
Compass 1 & 2
Impulse
Etc
Now its REX
Well QF had a good go, but has run into it's own problems

So should Bonza go down the same road?
We can all agree that AB has a much larger agenda here, look at Flair who is doing City pairs

AB seems to have come in with a different game plan

1) Get up and running under the radar
For the most part AB's initial routes are keeping away from anything QF/JQ and VA are servicing
Allowing them to build a fleet and workforce with income that, whilst likely won't see them in the black, it will fund most of their development costs

2) Creep over to more viable routes
Some pairs may do well, some ok and a few fail
They will also have more birds coming regularly
MCY-MEL will be full and as some regional routes fail, expect the frequency on this route grow
This will be the first sign of things to come

3) The gloves are off
MEL-OOL will launch first followed by Cairns, Ballina, Newcastle and Coffs
A rotation may look something like MEL-OOL-MQL-OOL-MEL so they can still say saving Allstralya
This may happen as early as Q4 2023

4) SWA
I don't think AB will ever be in SYD and they will wait until SWA opens
At tis point they will be 20-30 frames and established enough to compete on the triangle
I would not be surprised if Melbourne was predominantly operated via AVV and MEB and Brisbane via OOL and MCY with limited "premium" services to BNE and MEL

I reckon this would be a much better way to get up and running over the last bunch of attempts

Think that you have done a good analysis Deano.
Aviation is a fickle mistress so what will actually happen is anyone's guess but 777p have some smart people and I cant see them just chucking cash into a hole.