Some of todays numbers

MEL OOL
REX 658 = 97
VA average 145

MEL ADL
REX 437 121
REX 489 127
REX average 124
VA average 131

MEL BNE
REX 258 133
VA average 143

SYD OOL
REX 540 80
VA average 127

MEL CBR
REX 616 119
VA average 128

SYD BNE
REX 348 129
REX 384 121
REX average 125
VA average 127

MEL SYD
REX 018 168
REX 042 143
REX 102 130
REX 152 121
REX 182 115
REX average 135.4
VA average 130.6

Economy only
REX outbound average for today 123 = 73%
VA average same routes 133 = 80%

Note that REX had a better load factor on MEL-SYD than VA

So if VA are doing well, REX is closing the gap

Some are saying that low frequency is a negative for REX so one can only be confident that as they grow their fleet, their loads will also grow
Others are saying that REX are only getting good loads from spill over as QF/JQ and VA sell out, well VA are certainly not selling out
I would have put up QF loads, but can't get my head around all the blocked seats on their flights...

Conclusion
Only 7% difference between REX and VA on same routes
Or 11 bums on seats average per flight
I'd reckon the champagne is now on ice ready to be opened

The data you are posting is completely inaccurate until the flight has actually departed. So your claims are not valid.

Virgin has a average of about 95% between 6-9am this morning.

So your statement that Rex has better loads vs Virgin on MEL-SYD is actually false.

All were checked around the same time so apples for apples
So far I am still 100% correct that REX is doing better than VA from Melbourne to Sydney

But as the day drags on seats are filling, correct
REX loads on MEL-SYD are now 162 161 135 136 117 average 142.2 = 84%

Outbound average for the day across the network now stands at 129.1 = 77%

REX first 2 loads MEL-SYD 162 and 161 = 161.5 = 96% which pips VA by 1%
And all business sold out on both flights as well

Who'd have thought that that REX would be out doing VA on MEL-SYD, even if it were just for today, given the ramblings and predictions of doom just a couple of months ago from the likes of PoppaJo and Mick

Why are you still comparing Rex vs VA or QF, VA and QF have a massive backlog of credits to process, so bums on seats means absolutely nothing. This is probably why QF and VA have a massive cancellation rate and are combining flights as the revenue came in for them 2 years ago and they are trying to stem losses by putting as many on each flight rather than running flights that are essentially not making any new revenue. Rex allowed refunds early on with light loads anyway, so would have very few credit seats. If Rex is already matching VA on seats on load factors well that is a good thing for Rex, but really says nothing about yields. Rex is obviously on a long game here as are the other players, its not some solo startup like previous entrants, its evolving and being tweaked as it grows with already a few partners and an established regional feeder, which is doing extremely well at present. Everybody is going to have a crunch in the next few years due to crewing issues, assuming the economy doesn't imploded from inflation, and that wont only effect Rex, so who knows what will happen over the next 5 years.

43 raises an excellent point
I did see VA had a cancellation on MEL-SYD today, helping consolidate their loads and giving an artificially high load factor
REX did a great thing for their customers during covid by offering full refunds instead of vouchers

So if new booking are to be counted only, then REX numbers are kinda looking even better
I guess you could also extrapolate that thousands of truckies spending $2000 per week on diesel at BP and earning $1000 per year QFFPs are also filling a ton of seats

REX can't be far off launching their own FFPs scheme right...

For those interested in actual data here are the comparative figures for VA and Rex despatched flights MEL-SYD as at 10.30am:

VA803 171 (163Y, 8J)
VA819 174 (166Y, 8J)
VA829 173 (165Y, 8J)
VA833 176 (168Y, 8J)
LF = 98.6%

ZL018 170 (8J, 162Y)
ZL034 169 (8J, 161Y)
LF = 96.3%

For the numerically challenged, 98.6 is greater than 96.3.

My predictions of doom stand. They won't be getting to 30 aircraft. It will never make money and they will never look after the employees. That's my opinion, your entitled to your own.

If half the flight has not checked in, and the other flight has, then no, its apples for pineapples.

I would take a punt that VA and even QF/JQ cancelations major reason for cancelations is not to consolidate it would be more than likely be crewing/staffing issues with COVID. Even if you’re a close contact you can not attend as a pilot/cabin crew that’s at JQ anyway that is the rule.

Rex only have 6 jets and is pretty much at capacity with their SY flights as they don’t have slots and can not transfer their SAAB slots for 73 use. Rex will need to start getting creative maybe WLM instead of SY. Also their J class might be full but means nothing when it is offered as a free upgrade on a $100 economy ticket, I know first hand, so that would make it a loss making seat.

I do have it on good authority that Rex ground staff are to upgrade all vacant Business seats to other passengers, for free.

That’s important for the record when Management come out claiming 100% J class loadings or some BS.

Low likelihood of that, I hear there's a lot of on carriage from the regional network already so that would not work ex secondaries like WLM or AV. They will be hoping they can somehow snag some peak slots eventually, maybe when Badgeries opens and takes some internationals out of the loop. Part of QFs 60% line in the sand is also to justify its lion share of slots, so if they start to slip on that the ACCC might be moved to intervene to force access for competition, unlikely but stranger things.... Melbourne was smart to keep itself free of fixed slots, so as the mix of competition changes they can change who gets what % of slots to fit, QF will definitely lose out there as the others expand, unless they want to keep dumping capacity. This is definitely a major driver of offered flights vs combined into Sydney and Melbourne. Offer 20 flights a day to block up slots, operate 10-15 on rationalisation, however that was pre-planned. This was happening pre-covid with midday slots, there was ghost flights that almost never ran on some days.

Yeah so I was going off PoppaJo's flawed numbers VA around 95% I assumed he had his numbers right

Prediction 1
Current 6, 1 due, 2 on order the rest will depend on your prediction number 2
Prediction 2
LF today 80% and climbing I would think that will be a profit
LF Saturday 75%+ likely a profit
LF Friday 74%+ likely another profit
Prediction 3
Well that is between REX and it's employees, are you confident Poppa that mainline will stay under QF? There is a good chance that the shiny new 220s and 230/21s could be flown NJS, NWK or even JQ, reckon that would make employees very happy and as for VA, there doesn't seem to be many happy drivers there either

Not quite true
Remember back when East West had a crack at busting the 2 airline agreement
They were not allowed on the triangle, so they started running SYD-ABX-MEL and SYD-OOL-BNE
REX could quite easily do the same until SWA opens
SYD-ABX-MEL
SYD-CFS-BNE
Not ideal, but gets the job done and they already have slots for their SAABs

Like I mentioned, seen it first hand. So everybody assumption on J class is flawed. The numbers will be way off, I would be 99% positive those seats will be loss making.

Better ask the QLink pilot body how they felt about being forcibly re-based a few years back (pre covid) and now how the whole southern pilot body took a pay cut to fly the -200/300s. Then there's the awful EBA they signed on for, the lack of respect in upgrading QLink pilots, very poor treatment if you make a mistake and so on. Rex management look like fluffy bunnies compared to what QF have been doing to its pilot workforce the last decade. At least Rex is mostly talk and hot air, vs the actual issues going on at QF and VA the last few years. If the latest Rex EBA gets up the QLink pilots will be asking questions of management for sure.

Nup, I’ve seen the flights, been on the flights, the people in J class weren’t upgraded and it was full.
All the Men and Women in J class were NOT upgraded from Y class, you can easily see that from their demeanor and the way they were dressed. A lot are frequent flyers.

A lot of idiots in here hoping Rex goes under, maybe for their own selfish reasons I don’t know.

A lot of you wouldn’t know your ass from your elbow.

Back to QF JQ or VA for you, worry about your own problems……there’s a few.

No soup for you.

ACMS are you seriously telling me that there is a business case for 30 737s to be thrown on domestic? You wonder why nobody has faith in this? Because it’s not possible. Unless you can tell me how it can be done? I mean go and double our population tomorrow and for sure.

I never said that or agreed to someone else saying that did I.

I’m just sick and tired of all the crap I see in here from people with agendas and ulterior motives keen to destroy good peoples jobs.

yeah sure, like half of the punters in QF 737 domestic aren’t staff on leisure travel or duty travel. Many times I’ve travelled QF and over half the seats were NOT full fare J pax……Pilots, flight attendants in uniform swamp J class a lot.

come on, do better.

ACMS, no one really wants to see Rex fail, but most of us have seen this kind of wacky business plan before.

What I would like to see is Rex T & Cs improve dramatically. An airline flying 737s for **** money just puts downward pressure on the rest of us.

Right, so the same will be said about Bonza in a year or two when its fantasy business plan falls over, if it even gets up. Nobody asked them to start some wacko business model, yet when it collapses or moves onto Plan B,C, D, we are shot down if we question it? Soooo...they are giving good people jobs....how about we look after each other....Hmm..no they are destroying this profession with terrible contracts alongside destroying families when "the time comes". If you looked closely at its planned operating model and contracts, it is in the best interest of this industry if it actually never gets up. Thousands of people and families will be spared.

The best way forward to not destroy good people's jobs, is for these time wasting, family destroying operations to not exist at all. Just remember what Sharpy said to the media, "We are going to rip away all those entitlements those Pilots have built up over the years, 10% below Jetstar". Now with an attitude like that, I hope it falls over tomorrow, zero place within this industry for operations like that.

Seriously Poppa?
Trying to compare like for like below

LAX-SFO 32 flights per day 6 carriers
SYD-MEL 70 flights per day 4 carriers including JQ

LAX-DEN 18 flights per day 4 carriers
MEL-BNE 29 flights per day 4 carriers including JQ

LAX-BOS 15 flights trans continental 4 carriers
MEL-PER 15 flights trans continental 3 carriers including JQ

BOS-MIA 11 flights per day 4 carriers
MEL-OOL 18 flights per day 4 carriers including JQ

Yea, if QF/JQ did not have a 60% monopoly, then absolutely Australia has the population to support more than 2 carriers and an offshoot LCC

Me thinks Poppa is living back in the 80s when the 2 airline agreement protectionism was in full swing and fare were between $200 and $500 SYD-MEL or $1200-$2000 in todays money

No I’ve just worked a few hundred people who have had careers and families destroyed by fantasy business models. Perhaps you could start a new airline for us with your grand plans and I’ll come take a job with you, sounds like you will be able to provide me with a very long and stable career.

Again PoppaJo long stable careers are a thing of the past, time to move forward
Where are the so called long stable careers in aviation?
Ansett had a long life but went busto
Even QF you can't say long and stable, what with JST, NJS, NWK, EAQ, SSQ and EFA all being run as separate entities to lower costs
May as well throw UTY into the mix if Qantas gobbles them up

Look PoppaJo, let's be honest...
Since the protectionist 2 airline agreement ended there has been a steady stream of airlines trying to get a foothold in Australia
Until now they have all been bullied into bankruptcy by mainly QF and to a lesser extend AN and VB/VA in an effort to satisfy their shareholders by protecting market share at a significant cost through price wars and promotions

I say until now because REX started with a substantial footprint and are lean plus they have some financial backing, they have taken the fight to Qantas and are still standing, even looking promising and although the war of words from Sharpie may sound like whinging, many of his points are valid
Even if Qantas can quash REX jet, there will be another willing to take their place and another and another, because in any industry when one player holds 60% market share, they are vulnerable

Poppa, Aviation is evolving and there will be a steady parade of start ups and failures, even legacy carriers that have 60+ years of operations are failing, it's time to get with the times and shop around for your best path forward

I never said QF business class was making actual seat price on sale. I posted only about Rex and that Rex Business class numbers are flawed because they’re giving free upgrades and/or seats. I will do better in the sense I do agree with you that QF business class is full of staff paxing then a full paying customer for that seat and then commercial upgrades request followed by staff traveler. Oh yeah the staff travel how is that at Rex haha!

I am all for sustainable competition. I am not all for wacko business plans. I think there is room for someone to replace Tiger and do a better job at it, they had significant Sydney slots, just terrible management with poor fleet choices. Jetstar is a strong business because Tiger was weak. Bonza should really be doing what Tiger did, and bigger, then taking on the Star. But...

I don't think Mildura to Sunny Coast is the answer nor is another premium player.

The market wants more low cost competition on the main leisure routes. Have you seen Cairns lately? Going nuts. Rex nowhere in sight and Bonza should really be calling the Far north home. That will start to hit Jetstar and provide competition. Flying 50 punters mid week around the triangle is a waste of time.

I don’t think the Australian public even know what a LCC, cheap full service (that’s actually first time I’ve heard that brand) or full fare market is, let’s be honest here. I’ve seen ppl spend $100 on beers and food with out batting an eye lid at airports however soon as their $40 SY-ML flight is 20mn late all hell breaks loose. People want all cream and toppings but only paying enough for the cake mix.

Really Jo you are sticking to 50 eh.....
Plenty of evidence to the contrary
I'll throw some numbers for Wednesday this week so you can eat your words
Whilst the numbers below are not the final count as some seats had not been allocated, it surely disproves your estimates
Outbound average economy seats
Thursday average 109.4 (lowest number 51 ZL 18)
Friday average 122.4 (lowest number 77 ZL 489)
Saturday average 121.3 (lowest number 51 ZL 616)
Sunday 131.2 (lowest number 94 ZL 540)
Today so far with some still to be allocated 109.8 (lowest number 65 ZL 182 at the moment)

Where is your claimed 50 seats Jo ?

Just in comparison the remainder of VA MEL-SYD today has an average of 99.9 (lowest 47)

....and what about tomorrow's numbers Deano? They look pretty abysmal to me, doubt they would be making any money.

ZL9 SYDMEL 62
ZL328 SYDBNE 59
ZL31 SYDMEL 85
ZL540 SYDOOL 39
ZL348 SYDBNE 92
ZL125 SYDMEL 85
ZL141 SYDMEL 78
ZL384 SYDBNE 60
ZL161 SYDMEL 61

Those numbers will improve as more pax check in

That's booked pax mate, not those that have checked in....

ZL 9 went out with 140 y and 7 j today
Lets see if your numbers hold tomorrow

VA looking just as bad to BNE
First 5 tomorrow
901 = 46
905 = 95
909 = 83
913 = 54
917 = 67
Average 69
REX average 70

This argument is getting old.

Do I need to speak in another language? The data is useless until post departure. It all means nothing until then.

All airlines could have 100% booking means nothing unless the infrastructure is there to move ppl through the security gates. Sydney this morning was a mess again, Australia biggest airport is becoming an embarrassment.

As for how Rex are really going we will find out about the 29th August see what spin they release QF on the 25th and VA is a big secret still.

OMG Poppa we agree on something :D

So how's REX doing in their SAAB's up against QF

From SYD
CFS 32.6 av. or 2 seats unsold today
PQQ 12.5 av. not so good 37%
OGA 23 av. 67%
WGA 22 av. 65%
ARM 16.6 av. 48%
DBO 25.2 av. 74%
ABX 25.75 av. 75%
Overall against QF on established, new and QF attacked routes average 22 seats out of 34 or 65% load factor

Yeah true, they might triple their bookings in 24 hours!