Umm you did have the “if” “caveat”.
Here you go:


Still doesn’t make it anymore accurate.

As for this word salad:

A) I wasn’t “rebuffing” your comment on statistics, I was highlighting the fact that someone who sees a 95% REDUCTION in cases as exponential growth, probably shouldn’t lecture others.

B) I think I get the insult you’re assuming. If you wish I can correct the grammar to the point it doesn’t resemble Joe Biden without a teleprompter.

I think the statement was clearly IF it were to happen, not to be picked apart on semantics. There is nothing there where I said numbers were actually increasing, apart from an error in tense. If you like i will replace continue with resume.

Time for the padlock
 

A third Australian has just died in India since the Australian border to India was shut. I guess those 3 deaths are ok because it happened to Australians in India and didn’t happen to Australians in Australia?

Everyone has their own opinion on COVID and it’s been done to death here. I started this thread due to the previous Virgin thread getting binned, and I had hoped to explore or address the original question; now that this pandemic is in its 16th month, what is the Government going to do to ensure all of our domestic airlines stay alive?? But the thread has lost its way and it’s now just a **** fight between two different forms of opinion, which is totally fine as we are in a democratic society, but there won’t be any winners in this argument so I reckon the Mods should reach in to their bag of gaol quality padlocks and slap one on the thread.

Best of luck to all.

The whole India and Australia debacle is just that. Has anyone noticed the ones making the most noise in the media are the ones who voluntarily left Australia for a wedding, Funeral or business! How was this so when in Australia I couldn’t go over the next adjoining border in January to visit a sick relative and yet these ppl were allowed to leave the country.

Cricketers Why? They get special treatment allowed to charter a flight to get home Gladys raises cap for one day to make it happen

Australian Olympians, are they really going to let them go to Japan, into a danger zone. seriously can’t make this up. Australia is messed up we are seeing a real line in the sand in our community.

Just as well this isn't hosted on Facebook or a lot of deniers/anti-vaxxers would have been kicked off in the last 12 months

As thread starter, feel free to fix it yourself. Presumably this is the reason the originator of the previous Virgin thread chose to delete it.

Thanks Mod. 👍

Seems like the lady who started the conversation has now distanced herself from it.

So she is not apologising for what she said just sorry that people were offended. Different words to make the same point, so does she still think its ok that people would die as long as her airline can make more money? Anyway done to death (no pun intended) whats happening at Virgin?

An extra 700 flights a week announced today. Where on earth are they going to find the crew and aircraft to achieve that in the short to medium term ?

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp....63dacdf92a39a9

A better headline would be:

Struggling airline says it is happy to kill passengers, awards senior management millions in bonuses

NEW ROUTES

Darwin-Sydney - daily during winter from July 14

Adelaide-Cairns - up to 4 flights per week from August 10

Sydney-Townsville - 3 flights per week from July 27

Melbourne-Townsville - 3 flights per week from August 17

Cairns-Perth - up to 4 flights per week from July 26

MORE FLIGHTS ON BUSY EAST COAST ROUTES (BY OCTOBER)

Sydney-Melbourne - from 130 up to 163 return flights per week

Sydney-Brisbane - from 76 up to 104 return flights per week

Melbourne-Brisbane - from 61 up to 84 return flights per week

MORE FLIGHTS ON OTHER ROUTES (BY OCTOBER)

Melbourne-Gold Coast - from 40 up to 55 return flights per week

Sydney-Gold Coast - from 49 up to 72 return flights per week

Melbourne-Sunshine Coast - from 13 up to 28 return flights per week

Sydney-Sunshine Coast - from 11 up to 26 return flights per week

Brisbane-Cairns - from 29 up to 31 return flights per week

Melbourne-Cairns - from 8 up to 20 return flights per week

Sydney-Cairns - from 10 up to 20 return flights per week

Brisbane-Proserpine/Whitsunday Coast - from 7 up to 10 return flights per week

Melbourne-Hamilton Island - up to 4 return flights per week

Melbourne-Hobart - from 18 up to 31 return flights per week

Sydney-Hobart - from 10 up to 20 return flights per week

Melbourne-Launceston - from 16 up to 21 return flights per week

Brisbane-Mackay - from 20 up to 30 return flights per week

Brisbane-Townsville - from 20 up to 31 return flights per week

Brisbane-Perth - from 17 up to 24 return flights per week

Brisbane-Canberra - from 18 up to 24 return flights per week

Adelaide-Gold Coast - from 7 up to 9 return flights per week across school holiday travel dates only

Are some of these Alliance E190?

Seems to me that she's fired all the right people that needed firing so far, I guess there's one or two previous execs that should have gone too but I suppose she needed to have someone who knew where the bodies were buried. There's still a few that need weeding out but I'm sure she'll get to them when the time is right.

Wonder if a certain person will be handing back their AO now that the full extent of the damage is known - reminds me of an old political quip from the 90s that seems appropriate "the biggest jobs and investment destroyer since the bubonic plague".......

Actually, since the clown left the WH and there is someone there with at least the interest in doing the job, they've vaccinated more than a third of the population I believe and the infection rates are tumbling but yes, very grateful to be living in Australia and would be happy living in NZ too.......

With QF announcement today, then JH announcing 250 jobs including pilots adding additional routes, could this be their move on a very wounded QF? QF is still in deep deep water VA has cut their debt in half and seem to be getting stronger.

I think you might be spot on there, VA and Rex both squared up with equity partners, no debt. QF spending cash frivolously on loss making routes to try and maintain its magic 60% market share, but building debt to do so. The big Q might be falling into a trap that they cant dig their way out of. At some point the amount of debt will require 60% market share to be serviced. I think many might be barking up the wrong tree in thinking its Rex or VA that will balk in the long run, with QF unable to bully entrants with market power whoever survives will definitely make profits. All this depends how deep are each players pockets and how far are they willing to push. If Bain are as cut throat as is made out on here, they may smell blood in the water and push for dominance, imagine how much VA will be worth then.

Virgin are aiming for 60% of the domestic market and now is the time to attack Qantas with 100 international airframes sitting on the ground.I don’t know what the leasing arrangements would be on these aircraft?But Virgin are leasing aircraft on an hourly flying rate.

Virgin targeting 60% of domestic market when they only have about 30% now? I’m sorry but that doesn’t pass the pub test.

QF wounded? Deep water?

Err...do you have a source for that?

QF announcement today Vs VA announcement today. Despite what you and others think QF are not in a great place. Offering VR on international CC same day VA offering employment. You tell me me what you think?!

That would be impossible to achieve with their mid-market strategy product offering. VA will saddle up the most profitable 30 percent of the market that they can achieve and ride that horse all the way to a public share offer.

Agree completely. To jag 60% of the market (Qantas had 65% before VA collapsed) they would need to offer service and quality equivalent to QF. I know I know, I mentioned the words Qantas and quality, but their business lounges, business class standard and FF program leave VA for dust. VA would have to equal that standard or exceed it if they want to knock the Rat off it’s perch from its 90% market share. I’m not sure even COVID would bring about that change.

Really? OK, QANTAS are just clearing the decks of the staff so they can replace them with cheaper contract staff when the international borders open. Never waste a crisis.
Virgin got rid of thousands, they are getting a couple of hundred back with fair work giving every indication they would be OK with them going back to award if they don't give the company what it wants.
And if I was going to back a company to be bailed out by the Feds, it wouldn't be Virgin.

Welcome back BNEA320. Hows your Snoworld website going.

Of course he doesn't, because its bullsh1t. Jayne has stated she wants to reposition VA in the middle market which is between 30-40% of the domestic market.

Recruiting 250 staff after Ms Jayne let go 3000. Wow :hmm:

Plus Qantas has an international network. You simply can't have International CC sitting around on the payroll until 2022 with no income coming in the door due to no flying happening. They own all the 787s but other aircraft that are used for International are encumbered and parked. Qantas has billions in the bank, a largely unencumbered fleet and a rotating credit facility at very low interest rates.

They are not in pain, they will be fine. As someone else noted, VA got rid of half their workforce and are now re-employing about 200.

Qantas paid cash for the entire 787-9 fleet as I understand it. The A380s would be on leases but I suspect that after nearly 13 years, the oldest ones would likely be unencumbered. Ditto most of the 737s and A330s.

One of the things that killed VA was its hideously expensive (due to poor negotiation) lease costs compared to QF, so I doubt that the effect of having the aircraft on the ground is debilitating - I suspect most of QF's fleet are hourly lease. Those that were on finance leases are otherwise likely now owned outright.

787s used as security would now make them encumbered.

https://www.flightglobal.com/strateg...137514.article

some debt due to mature very soon.

AJ was smart to secure the loan facility against the new 787s before the arse fell out of their value…

Over 5 billion in debt as of last year.

All this talk of QF being in a worse position than Rex or Virgin is all garbage. If the doomsdayers predictions come true what role do you think the Government will play to ensure that Australia's most iconic brand and strategic asset will survive? You are kidding yourself if you think politics wouldn't play a part.

Guvmint doesn’t pick winners Lookleft.....I’m sure it will be left to the market.............NOT.

Two decades of slash and burn management, every negotiation beginning with demands for large T&C reductions, calls of economic woe whenever it suits them followed closely behind by very healthy profits. Couple this with an almost fully stood up domestic fleet and a huge percentage of domestic capacity...I think QF are in better shape than some would have you think.

Two decades of crying wolf and it’s hard to know what the truth really is.

I will happily eat umble pie if I’m wrong but my money is on a miraculously surprising recovery with a modest profit before 2021 is out.

You’re wrong Gordon........it will be an amaaaaaaaaaaazing recovery, not a miraculous one😒😒

Amaaazing it will be. There is no denying the debt. It is significant. Fact is the (owned) A380s have a book value now of less than $40M each (value of spare parts). The fleet has been written down across the board meaning:

• Future depreciation expenses will be reduced due to the reduced book value of the asset.
• Future net income and profit margin will increase.
• Future return on assets and return on equity will both increase because of higher future profitability and lower asset and equity base.
• If the decision is made to retire certain aircraft, the write off is less significant.

So, it’s a question as to whether theses changes combined with revenue generation and cost mgmt are enough to service the debt. A company making $1B before COVID gives me confidence that the debt will be swiftly returned back to the levels needed for future investment (A350s and domestic replacements).

Back to Virgin, they have a different situation but their lease costs and operating costs have been massively reduced. Their load factors are the best out of everyone at the moment due capacity controls. They are doing fine and crew should be optimistic in my opinion.

Very good summary.

Very well said.

The A380s were already hugely written down during the industrial issues back when AJ shut the company down and froze pays mark 1 a few years back, that was definitely a manufactured loss. I would be interested to see how much more they had to wiggle with this full year release. The fact that debt has been increased quite significantly in two years is the issue, I doubt either last years or this loss were manufactured, the accounting pointers are different. I remember the point being made when they used the A380 depreciation to help fight unions, that it may hinder its use for actual tax purposes later.

$1.4B amount of wiggle in FY20. So far this FY, the A380s have been further reduced in value by $116M.

And there was me thinking this was a virgin thread 🙄