Disregard, finger trouble

So .. the USA is now reporting 1000 deaths a day from Covid. Yep.. I can see it now. Thousands of Australians wanting to fly to the US!!


And by the way BNE.. it appears that Victoria is about to go into complete lock down as of Wednesday.

Perhaps one of the things we will have to adapt to is that Travel Agents ( like your family owned corner service station) are now a thing of the past.

And there was much rejoicing!

No idea on pax numbers between the US and Australia but perhaps the freight is lucrative enough to justify the trip? I saw Delta still does a daily LAX-SYD and plans to continue, gotta be something in it for the US airlines.

Apparently you can make money flying just belly freight in a 777. As far as passengers go...hmmm. While there is cautious optimism about a vaccine sometime in early 2021, the US has just stripped 32 million unemployed of any income support. I wonder how it plays out if that lasts more than a few days?

Freighter are 'reportedly' largely subsidising the SFO-SYD (UA) and LAX-SYD (DL) flights according to the MSM. Any passengers (mostly repatriation in both directions) would be a bonus for those carriers.

Perhaps TT738 also known as BNEA320 should be a car/truck salesman. It's a quick adaption from being in the Travel Agency business.

Heard the same thing from someone in the a air freight industry a 777 with belly freight is just break even atm, either carry a few passengers or cabin load some additional frieght (not at the same time) and you can make a few dollars. The frieghters with no passengers are going US -> Hawaii -> australia

Nice to see the Australian Government supporting all those foreign airlines :cool:

https://www.austrade.gov.au/ArticleD...edule.pdf.aspx

...And the Dr. Josef Mengele prize in amateur epidemiology goes to...

What you really mean is that we need to kill off about 300,000 people so that you won’t be inconvenienced. Which makes you reprehensible.

In what way has NZ wasted their time? Internally everything is back to normal.

...And the Donald Trump hyperbolic exaggeration prize goes to....

I see you've been using those highly accurate UCol London CFR models to boost your otherwise correct assertion that herd immunity aint going to fly.

Thanks. I read so many stories about that idiot that it must be rubbing off. Otherwise, many many people have said what a great job of adhering to Godwin’s law. The best ever some people are saying.

On a less hyperbolic note: There still is a lot of noise in the data with CFR and IFR getting jumbled. Apparently IFR isn’t typically known until a widespread serological study is done after a disease outbreak and statistical tools employed. The increased testing is starting to dilute the numbers somewhat over a classic CFR value owing to the inclusion of cases that otherwise would never be in the data.

The US numbers seem to be around 3-4% of the reported cases with an important caveat. Birx said yesterday that the testing is showing infections earlier than was the case waiting for clinical signs, thus stretching the timeline from detection to death and skewing the data. The Americans are predicting the daily toll to increase profoundly from their already sobering 1100 daily average.

So yeah, 300,000 dead would be a reasonable expectation if half of the country got Covid19 which, btw, is in the range required for the vaunted herd immunity value. But forget the exactitude of the number prediction. Just characterise it as a f**k of a lot.

Crude fatality rate worldwide last I checked was about 0.4%..considering the large number who are asymptomatic there is most likely huge numbers of undiagnosed. At current worst case scenarios over the entire population of NZ and Aus 120000 deaths would be the ceiling not 300000

120000 is so much better :\

Ok, while we are killing people willy-nilly in this thought experiment, can someone quantify the percentage of infections which result in lifelong disability? Or even chronic quality-of-life issues? I'd hate for 99.6% of the population to escape without some memento.

Xeptu, have you considered a career in sensational junk journalism ? They love this kind of trash.

Herd immunity is believed to set in at somewhere in the 40ies range.
And that does not mean that some 40% plus of the population needs to get covid 19.
Just that some 40% plus need to have have immunity of some sort.
And that there is a lot of immune people without them having had the infection has been established.

there is absolutely no current quantifiable data on long term effects of covid19. Everything you read or see at this point is anecdotal (and therefore falls squarely into the category of panic porn)

Perhaps, but are you volunteering yourself to find out? It’s only a few months in, how does anyone know what the long term effects are?

Shouldn't that read: Everything I read or see?
Maybe, you simply aren't reading the right papers?