Zoom will impact...not replace
 

This.

Caught up with a few old friends during the week. They work as a senior partner in a major law firm, a senior manager in a multi-national building conglomerate and head of IT services in a very large organisation. The relevant point here is that they all used to travel extensively for business purposes AND they are all responsible for approving travel arrangements for their subordinates.

All three of them were absolute and unequivocal in their statements that the previous volume of business travel undertaken by themselves and their subordinate staff (100s for 2 of them) would not be replicated once travel becomes unrestricted again.

They readily agreed that not all business could be effectively conducted via teleconferencing. However, they assured me that their (and their staff) contribution and service to the Frequent Flyer Army (booted and suited, lounge-dwelling, high-yield, corporate types) would be significantly reduced.

Make of that what you will, but I would put money on it being a LONG time until that part of the aviation market returns to pre-COVID levels. I have no business experience with it but these guys all stated that the technology really has come a long way and certain face-to-face business tasks are replaced via Zoom (or the like) with no apparent disadvantage.

On the flip side of the travel coin, I have had many friends and family say that they are planning 2 or 3 trips to holiday or catch-up with family and friends in the space of time (e.g. 12 months) that they would usually be only planning 1 trip. They did add a caveat to those intentions by stating that while they were uber-keen to take care of their cabin fever, the budget was going to be strictly controlled.

PG

I was told minimum of five years.

Before that we will be back to the old yellow health vaccination books or digital equivalent. No vax no travel.

Fewer and fewer will travel for business, leisure travel will still continue albiet not at the levels pre the China Virus. This one world event has changed the face of the planet as we used to know it forever!

Well I would have to disagree with the leisure travel reducing in size, all the flights I have operated this month I have seen 90% and above load factors (yes I work it out every sector I have done). Soon as people get the go ahead from gov and border restrictions ease especially in Victoria there will be demand Aussies love to travel that’s always been a fact.

I have read various articles regarding video conferencing business seem to be displeased with it due to poor quality, drop outs in internet service and other tech issues. They also prefer the face to face meetings but wether they travel business class or not well maybe not in the short term but who knows.

We had some terrible video conference experiences early on but having done 1-4 per day over the last few months we are finding a way to make it work. MS Teams seems to be the most reliable and offer the best video quality.

My job requires me to physically inspect stuff but I would think my domestic travel will be less than half what it used to be once things are 'normal'.

2 large NSW departments. Both expecting much lower business travel in future. Both planning “Zoom rooms” - big screen on wall, sound proofed, good speakers and microphones, fairly comfortable.

This looks like a long term reset - not a short term adaptation.

https://www.wkbn.com/news/national-w...er-until-2024/

https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-07-28-02/

Internal memo I saw from a mate at HSBC shows a new global mandate of a 70% reduction in travel post virus. Zoom may not be the best way of managing a global business but the dollar savings in shiny lights will be enough to keep it enforced for at least the next few years.....

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....766cae24f0.jpg
Doesn't seem to be slowing the air traffic in China?

Those of us looking down the barrel of 80, and who have already cruised and flown near everywhere, are now forced to reconsider our future. Firstly, after 80, travel insurance becomes punishing, and that alone is a massive deterrant. And yes, we have incurred some medical issues along lifes road, and these are now returning to bite us in higher premiums and numerous exclusions. As well, with the cruise ship industry having been clearly shown up as being more concerned with income than passenger safety - we won't be going back there. (17 cruises x 6 companies in 22 years). We recognise that long distance airline travel is becoming more comfortable, and is safe enough - but negotiating huge airports has become quite a difficult event for us. Too much walking gate-to-gate, a rugby scrum at every security checkpoint, and terrible food facilities. Business lounges have fallen to new lows too. What we once thought nothing of enduring - at our age, we just don't want to do it anymore.

Where to now? Well, fly the RV to more distant Aussie locations, drive to the many Aussie locations we've never considered, and do a bit more intra-state travel for weekends. Doing our bit to keep some of the $68b that Aussies used to spend on overseas travel - here in Aussie.

happy days,

Be interesting to see how that image compares with one taken at the same time a year ago. Flightradar has some figures here Air traffic at China's busiest airports... which suggests it's currently very roughly 25% down now from where it was prior to the disease outbreaks, but I also wonder about the influence of state control over their airlines, particularly those that the government is a majority shareholder of. It makes me question how much flying is being done there because it's a way to demonstrate to the world, so everyone can look on flightradar and the airport activity statements, and see how well the airline industry and China overall is "recovering" under the Chinese government rule.

How many people are in those aircraft?

At least 2.

😂😂😂😂

I will pay that!

Doubt it.... Or is your 'mate' only talking about HSBC staff? And I doubt that figure too even if it's just HSBC. For business you cannot compare a Zoom chat with face to face talking. What is it? 85% of conversation is the body language and not the actual words? Besides, when your ISP goes down regularly what then? You just have to look at Virgin Broadband in the UK failing several times recently leaving Zoomers high and dry!

I look forward to digging out this thread in five years from now and we'll see how things have recovered!

yes...... mate is only talking about HSBC staff and their business travel hence the internal memo. As I said, A reduction in business travel is something which companies will try and stick to for the first few years while they’ve got the savings in bright lights. Eventually they’ll realise it doesn’t work and the travel will come back. Thinking businesses are going to have the desire and the capital to just charge straight back into travel at the same rate immediately is just ludicrous.....as much as we’d all love that for yields.

Article here with post lockdown figures in Chinese airlines.

In late July 70% of scheduled flights flown compared to 2019 numbers. Not the same but not apocalyptically less.

Load factor average was 73%. Only a little increase needed to resume the average pre Covid load factor which I believe is around 85% for all airlines.

So the industry there is on the way back, hopefully it will follow here as well.

Original article here