The true number of displaced (redundant) pilots
 

With all of the news about pilots being made redundant (either compulsorily or voluntarily) across many carriers, I am curious as to the actual number of various type rated pilots who are now (or soon might be) without a job and will likely be looking into finding any seat they can in GA to keep their careers from falling out of the sky?
Essentially, how many extra "over-qualified" pilots are there now who will take up any upcoming GA vacancies, and thus likely stagnating any kind of movement within the industry for the foreseeable future?
Are there any other operators expecting redundancies or does anyone have better estimates for any numbers above?

My sincere condolences to the all-to-many of you who have been reduced to "just" a number above - you have lives and families to support and I wish you the very best whatever happens. I do think that it is still important to objectively look at how these displacements will change the landscape of aviation in Australia as a whole, and this thread hopes to serve as a guide to those who are considering the effects of all of this on their own careers, whether they are themselves displaced, stood down, still flying, or even in training.

Will keep updated with any new information anyone can provide (whether speculative or confirmed).

Prob add about 500 from across the ditch (Air NZ and VANZ). A lot of kiwi pilots go to Aus for GA work.

Lots of expats coming home I would think?

Can’t speak for the other airlines, but I doubt you will see any of the surplus 220 Qantas pilots actually being made redundant.

Most likely that number will easily be absorbed by retirements / VR - ie only those that choose to “retire”.

Also keep in mind, despite the naysayers, the cycle will continue, and will be in an uptrend in the next couple of years.

Difficult to say just yet as so many are still technically employed but not working.

Talking to collegues who are affected suggests that very few intend to head back to GA, certainly the entry level GA scene (I dont personally know of any). I think any lack of opportunity/progression at that end of town will be due to the fact there is nobody moving up to be replaced, rather than people shuffling back down.
I dont belive its pride stopping them, rather most airline guys/girls who have been made redundant are now a bit older and have estiblished lives in the major centres and for what they would get paid (certainly at the smaller end of GA) its not worth the upheaval of moving.

As with every bust there will be another boom greater than the last one, and within the next five years most who lost thier jobs and really want to stay flying will be back at it.

Lots of China contacts torn up since COVID kicked off, plus 600 odd EK pilots sacked recently. Some will likely return to Oz.

I would rather jump off a cliff than return to GA.

What GA ....?

Exactly. Unlike when Ansett went broke there was still a large GA market that Ansett guys found their way into. These days there are very few GA jobs that airline pilots would migrate to. I would takes a guess and say that the whole GA market has probably almost halved in size in the last 20 years.

My guess will be that the majority of people retrenched in this round will probably leave the industry unless there is an immediate economic upswing next year. People just can't wait around for years on end for a flying job. Especially those who have spent the first 10 years of their career already playing that game.

From initial reports..I would agree.

Of the 220 pilots flagged, 190 are targeted to come from QF (30 from JQ)

165 already shown interest in the first 24hrs...30 to hit 65 this year...150 approx in the following 3 years.

With the super complications and the 380 given 3 years, Id say the number needed would be surpassed...plenty 380 drivers over 60

Already made Pilots redundant JQNZ Thursday. Email today the company want a side EBA for how long no body knows, negotiating starts July 2nd. It will definitely get worse before it gets better.

On International AJ said thats canned so why would they need an international CEO, surely the domestic could step up and do a few extra hours money saved right there. Gareth Evans runs both at JQ

I think you'll find that Airline pilots aren't particularly sought after for GA gigs even if they might of done it in a past life.

With modern aircraft being very easy to fly and the over reliance on automation, ex airline pilots have really struggled to adapt back to the complexity of operating light aircraft as a single pilot and many just don't make the cut.

Flying a heavy single or turbocharged piston twin is a strenuous exercise and sadly years of watching the autopilot have rendered most Airline pilots incapable of managing such aircraft again.

Ahhh it’s you again......

Btw there has never really been a mass transition of airline pilots back to GA since like, forever, certainly not now as it’s still only just beginning, so I don’t know how you can say “many just don’t make the cut”. It’s more your assumptions and prejudices which make you think that airline pilots won’t make the cut. An aircraft is an aircraft, I’m sure after a bit of refamiliarisation most pilots, even long time airline pilots will “make the cut”.

And if you looked inside one of today’s light aircraft, even pistons, you’d probably be surprised at the level of automation and avionics inside of one.

Any numbers on how many pilots or who? Older or junior..didn’t a few JQNZ Dash drivers only recently head over?

Hook, line and sinker...

I’d predict it would also affect anyone above the age of 60 on those fleets. Maybe even 57/58 depending on ability to retire. It may just have to be a slightly less comfortable retirement (but still far more comfortable than 95% of the population) than they were expecting.

If you know you are going to have a minimum of 3 years off work, almost certainly not in another flying role, then why come back for what will be quite an extensive refamiliarisation not just to your previous role but to Aviation, then probably an endorsement onto another aircraft type, only to fly it for a year or two on what is probably going to be a lower wage and conditions than you were used to, before hanging up the boots anyway?

After having a few months off, realising there is a world out there beyond the job, beyond jet lag, fatigue, sims, a lot may just take the money and run.

:rolleyes: worried we might show you a thing or two......:ugh:

After all the experience and training we’ve received from the Airlines ( CRM, team building, human factors, DG’s, SOPS........the list goes on ) I’d venture to suggest we’d make much safer GA Pilot’s now than we did years ago........not even close. Obviously we would need a refresher, but it wouldn’t take long.....

But.......would we want to bother....?

A heavy single?

Fuji. That 165 you say have expressed an interest, is that for VR? Has something been comunicated to guys who are elidgable? If so, that's a great start.

Putting my head on a chopping block here but it is possible that in two to three years time, having lost pilots to early retirement and lost some back to their old industry or profession, coupled with very little training for CPL or ATPL guys due no incentive of jobs, we will face a GREATER pilot shortage than that which existed at the close of 2019. I know it sounds like a very positive few but depending on the return to international travel it is one possible outcome. I mean who is going to consider starting pilot training now with a view to CPL? Older guys that may have had another 2-4 years to go may be taken out of the pool early.

One of the most logical thinking post in a while.

Nothing official yet. I’m told a few weeks away from VR EOI with the conditions attached.

As Dr Dre mentioned..there’s plenty of thinking to do for many of the older guys / gals. Take a VR now and retire happily or remain stood down indefinitely and be forced to leave come 65.

But yes 165 was the figure going around the group on Friday afternoon who had.

There was never a pilot shortage in Australia

I would agree but probably more of a 5+ year time frame. Long enough for more retirements compounded with the lack of training additional to those who have left the industry due lack of work.

Since when??? Noone has gone back to GA since 2001.

Well we can play semantics but however you want to characterise the fact that guys were going from a piston twin to RHS jet without the traditional turboprop stage. My company (and others) is recruiting pilots with hours and type experience that would not have got them an interview ten years ago.

I think there will be oversupply for most of this decade, will also be a wave of returning expats who have also been laid off right over the world, many are already back here.

I know a few who have gone back to GA in order to pay bills and stay in the industry. They are aware that they are joining the progression ladder again and will earn a quarter of their Airbus or Boeing salary for the next 5-10 years. On the flip side you have GA pilots who have been laid off, and I know some who have gone for other GA jobs but have lost out to a Tiger pilot etc. These guys are young, starting families, most will end up just walking away.

Self funding CPLs will be non existent in the not too far future. A operator up north in the medium/long term trying to find a Darwin or Cairns trained CPL IFR Pilot will need to look elsewhere and spend more on localised training. Those sort of CVs were highly regarded back in my day and at the top of the pile when we were sifting through applicants to interview. We had the luxury of being specific on what type of CV we wanted. Now the pile is largely 200 hour hopefuls from down south, with some questionable training operators behind them.

I have no idea how operators expect to even find quality or suitable applicants in the long term (15-20 year mark). I’ve had this debate with senior managers within my operator about medium to long term hiring plans, and having been apart of working groups on the topic in the past, the only solution managers have is increasing the company’s leverage in the cadet business. These guys are the check and trainers of the future.

A wise person once said the pilots stood tall, the manager was short.

Why don't you commence a sermon with respect to the negatives of shock cooling on descent. Or perhaps pontificate about how to make a CTAF call to your exacting personal standards. Must be hard work carrying that chip around everywhere.

Well put indeed. I remember going through that rubbish years ago. I had been retrenched from airline flying and was interviewed for a job flying an MU2. The then chief pilot gave me the bum's rush saying I wouldn't be able able to handle single pilot IFR and in any case would expect too much in terms of aircraft serviceability. In other words he wanted a clean maintenance release from his pilots.
I made the point that having flown Mustangs in the RAAF single pilot IFR including formation flying in cloud I figured I could cope in IMC without an autopilot. . I didn't get the job.

Two years later I was re-hired by my former airline back on the 737. Guess who was my first copilot? It was the MU2 chief honcho who had interviewed me two years earlier.

-41 is online now Report Post

hahahaha.

10/10, solid troll.

Lay offs
 

You have to ask how many have got themselves in so deep financially that they have opted out of this life?

What a chump statement.. its sweaty and less well paid but GA flying is very achievable and slow compared to high intensity jet passenger transport flight ops

Very valid question.

The mining downturn in WA a few years ago left a few people financially exposed after the rug was unexpectedly pulled from beneath them.

I don’t believe that many will go back to GA unless they have just come out of it or they have a good relationship with a GA operator, and aren’t in debit up to their eyeballs.

I’m a casualty of this mess, stood down until further notice. I don’t think I will ever return to the airline due to obvious reasons.

If I’m let go, I won’t go back to GA, been there done that sacrificed more than my share. We are settled love where we live we won’t be uprooting for a shi!!y GA job on a Baron again. I’ll find something else maybe even Something Monday to Friday I’ll get to go to all the football games on the weekend. Life will go on without Aviation.

Come Tuesday slot of questions might be answered for Aviation. Borders to open or remain closed.

Pretty much every GA piston twin, with a failed engine - empty or full, they tend to be a tad heavy to climb.

Is the pay still sh1t in GA? No thanks. I would rather do time as a driving instructor than a flying instructor. Terms, conditions and pay twice as good.

I think I know what you are getting at, maybe it could have been worded better though. People with the right attitude and some level of flying skill will always do well in GA or anywhere else. Turn up with the wrong attitude and expecting the same working conditions and wage we have all been accustomed to in an air conditioned jet (with HEPA filters of course!) and GA will spit you out, just like any job right now. And it works the other way, GA turning up at an RPT airline gig. Good luck all

The 'Right Attitude' in GA is very open to interpretation. Some of the worst pilots I have ever seen had the 'right attitude'.

Ha! That gave me a real chuckle.
I had 3500 hours in GA , from a C206 to a Citation and more in between, before I landed an airline job. I could downtrain in a heartbeat if I had to.
But here’s the thing.......I’d rather poke my eye out with on HB pencil than go back to GA. A mate of mine makes more as a heavy vehicle instructor than I ever did in GA.
Most of us who have managed to keep wife no.1 and avoided all those wacko investment opportunities over the journey will simply take the package and fade into the distance.

You obviously haven’t been inside a 737 then!

Most GA aircraft are more advanced.

At the end of the day when you disconnect and fly the aeroplane it’s no different to a Cessna. It’s just going a lot quicker over the fence.

And yes, flying a turboprop or a piston twin around was so simple and easy, it was a holiday compared to the complexities of an airline operation, the knowledge required, stress and cyclical training. Not to mention job security.