Originally Posted by Xeptu
(Post 10883520)
Well they managed without a flight engineer and a navigator, why can't they manage without a human first officer, whats wrong with a robot, that doesn't get tired, never leaves the flight deck, is fully situationally aware continuously and doesn't cost $100,000 per year, seems perfectly sensible to me. I don't see the travelling public will accept no humans at all up the front
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Originally Posted by neville_nobody
(Post 10883993)
Whilst it is technically possible I think the development, certification, insurance costs are going to make it uneconomical for now. Additional to that it is actually riskier to start experimenting with automation as the current system of two pilots with a computer system is already very safe. Single Pilot with a computer is actually a higher risk proposition.
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Propjet88 is on it, post 41, good post. I don't buy into the "Drones will take over / airliners will have single-pilot operations by then" and other such rhetoric being spread by doom and gloom merchants. Maybe in the distant future, but not in my lifetime. I am predicting that the pilot shortage will come back with a vengeance. Having said this, I appreciate that pilots are very big into uncertainty avoidance and not having a fixed date for the bounce back is very stressful. |
Originally Posted by Lookleft
(Post 10884010)
The only real technological advance in the last 20 years has been the use of carbon fibre in the manufacturing of airframes and thats by only one manufacturer. As far as I am aware an autoland can still only be conducted in what would best be described as benign conditions.
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Flying 737s and A320s. Updates to technology is not the same as new technology. There are more checks and cross checks required before an RNP approach than there are for an ILS. So why is the 2nd pilot not required?
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Originally Posted by Lookleft
(Post 10884016)
So why is the 2nd pilot not required?
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You also said in the next 20 years. Technology hasn't advanced that much in the last 20 so I can't see your version of a pig with lipstick coming to fruition. Even less likely as the manufacturers will be concentrating on building more of the same 20th century aircraft to make up for their losses. There will be no incentive to spend billions to replace something costing them thousands.
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Originally Posted by Lookleft
(Post 10884020)
You also said in the next 20 years. Technology hasn't advanced that much in the last 20 so I can't see your version of a pig with lipstick coming to fruition. Even less likely as the manufacturers will be concentrating on building more of the same 20th century aircraft to make up for their losses. There will be no incentive to spend billions to replace something costing them thousands.
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Originally Posted by Lookleft
(Post 10884020)
You also said in the next 20 years. Technology hasn't advanced that much in the last 20 so I can't see your version of a pig with lipstick coming to fruition. Even less likely as the manufacturers will be concentrating on building more of the same 20th century aircraft to make up for their losses. There will be no incentive to spend billions to replace something costing them thousands.
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single pilot is dangerous unless you fit the robot with a crash axe.
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Originally Posted by Daddy Fantastic
(Post 10884289)
Pig with lipstick...thanks mate, gave me a good laugh and I happen to agree with you.
The A320 is a 1980s jet with a 1990s computer strapped To it. The rest is just marketing. The advancements in aerospace are in the materials and manufacturing. The actual interface is very basic. There is probably less computing power in an A350/B787 than an iPhone. |
100% reliable two way data comms is the key. Once that holy grail has been attained, its all over for the 2 pilot cockpit. They can build autopilots with all kinds of sensors to guide the aircraft to land without a Cat 3 ILS. An early but crude adopter is https://discover.garmin.com/en-US/autonomi/
Think Tesla autopilots and how they manage in a complex, dynamic and constantly changing environment. Getting an aircraft from the gate at A to the gate at B is computational child's play in comparison. When 2 way data comms reach that 100% reliability stage pilots will be replaced by former call centre operators in Mumbai who will each be managing dozens of aircraft simultaneously. Scary, hey? CPDLC is the Trojan Horse. Indeed, its all very cool not having to use the HF but it's now technically possible for ATC to issue commands directly to the autopilot and only a question of when they will be allowed that capability. The major obstacle will be marketing this new pilot-less, airline manager's wet dream to the general public. Price is their only consideration. Low enough and people will fly in anything - just look at the LCC's stooging around the skies of our northern neighbours - all packed to the gunwales with price conscious punters. |
Originally Posted by lucille
(Post 10884683)
100% reliable two way data comms is the key. Once that holy grail has been attained, its all over for the 2 pilot cockpit.
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Originally Posted by lucille
(Post 10884683)
100% reliable two way data comms is the key. Once that holy grail has been attained, its all over for the 2 pilot cockpit. They can build autopilots with all kinds of sensors to guide the aircraft to land without a Cat 3 ILS. An early but crude adopter is https://discover.garmin.com/en-US/autonomi/
Think Tesla autopilots and how they manage in a complex, dynamic and constantly changing environment. Getting an aircraft from the gate at A to the gate at B is computational child's play in comparison. When 2 way data comms reach that 100% reliability stage pilots will be replaced by former call centre operators in Mumbai who will each be managing dozens of aircraft simultaneously. Scary, hey? CPDLC is the Trojan Horse. Indeed, its all very cool not having to use the HF but it's now technically possible for ATC to issue commands directly to the autopilot and only a question of when they will be allowed that capability. The major obstacle will be marketing this new pilot-less, airline manager's wet dream to the general public. Price is their only consideration. Low enough and people will fly in anything - just look at the LCC's stooging around the skies of our northern neighbours - all packed to the gunwales with price conscious punters. Ain't no such thing... |
“As soon as you said 100%, I stopped reading....
Ain't no such thing...” Agreed. Poor choice of words on my part. It was just simpler and less pedantic than saying a probability of failure that would be low enough to assuage the fears of the travelling public. Nevertheless, I’m sure most got my drift no matter how inexpertly I may have worded it. But anyone who rejects the idea that crews of aircraft which operate between major city airports can’t eventually be replaced by automation is just being hopeful. It’s coming, the capability is very nearly here, the only question is when. |
And which manufacturer is going to design,test then mass produce this aircraft within a reasonable time frame and budget? Then tell us all why they will do that when the worlds airlines are still happy to buy designs that are 40-60 years old?
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Originally Posted by Lookleft
(Post 10885045)
And which manufacturer is going to design,test then mass produce this aircraft within a reasonable time frame and budget? Then tell us all why they will do that when the worlds airlines are still happy to buy designs that are 40-60 years old?
ipsoft.com/amelia Go and meet Amelia and you'll sorta get the idea, imagine 20 years from now. |
If AI is realised, just about every job in the entire world will be done by it, not just flying. So to all you sadists loving the demise of aviation, your employment will be confined to history too.
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Originally Posted by turbantime
(Post 10885068)
If AI is realised, just about every job in the entire world will be done by it, not just flying. So to all you sadists loving the demise of aviation, your employment will be confined to history too.
How should our society look. |
Well that's the best part, an AI doesn't need to be tested in a real aircraft, a simulator will do nicely. |
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