Virgin 2.0 to swap A330s and B777s for Boing 787s
"Latest reports on the shape on 'Virgin 2.0’ say the administrator's vision for the new airline includes replacing its six Airbus A330s (all leased) and five Boeing 777-300ERs (one leased, four owned) with eight Boeing 787 Dreamliners"
https://www.executivetraveller.com/n...lia-boeing-787 This was on the cards anyway, well not the B787s of course, but JB talked several times about moving to a single type, Paul Scurrah was also known to want out of the A330 leases and get rid of the A330 anyway, so moving to that single type would also have been part of his plan. It really sounds like the administrators are simply presenting Scurrah's plan to the bidders, what with Deloitte's earlier comments about keeping LAX and Tokyo, keeping most of the fleet and most of the employees. |
It's all lollipops and rainbows.
International is dead for a long time. |
JB talked several times about moving to a single type |
With all the good news I keep reading about Virgin Australia, I Hope Qantas go into administration too. That way we’ll get the rest of those 50 odd 787s planned and those sunrise aircraft too...... 😏
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A330s and 777s for 787s:
Fantasy land - That will never happen |
Tell 'em they're dreaming.
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Thank God for PPRune cause ya couldn't dream this **** up if ya tried!
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Boing boing
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Oh God, just let it die or do the humane thing and euthanise!
More people will be assisted in to a sustainable future if the nonsensical fantasy of Virgin 2.0 is abandoned. Let it die. There will be pain and grief. Many of the former employees will have a more secure (but lower salary) future in the more lean and competitive organisation. PG |
It has been the dream plan for over 5 years now. It is probably dead in the water for a long time. It has just been dug up by slack arse journos who need to try and fill a few column inches. If you believe everything in the ‘aviation’ news at the moment I have an airline to sell you.
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This is simply a proposal from Deloitte to bidders of their view of VA moving forward for maximum benefit. B787 leases will be cheap now due to airlines wanting to cancel their orders. 1x B777 and 6x A330s are leased. Administraton allows for these leases to be cancelled. International travel won't occur properly until 2021, giving VA the time it needs for this fleet replacement should it occur. The efficiencies of one aircraft type that's efficient and had maintenance benefits will outweigh parking 4 owner B777s? Medium-long term, this is a good potential. I don't think it's unreasonable that this will occur. VA's long haul is only a handful of aircraft compared to Qantas. Depsite a slow recovery, it won't take as long for VA to get to full capacity, with some widebody for Perth perhaps too and potentially other destinations.
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That's so cute!
but I think they actually need a solid plan for the future of Virgin, not tunes from Frozen. Let's bookmark this page for this time next year; come back and marvel at the simple elegance of a hope eternal. |
Originally Posted by ABP
(Post 10782622)
This is simply a proposal from Deloitte to bidders of their view of VA moving forward for maximum benefit. B787 leases will be cheap now due to airlines wanting to cancel their orders. 1x B777 and 6x A330s are leased. Administraton allows for these leases to be cancelled. International travel won't occur properly until 2021, giving VA the time it needs for this fleet replacement should it occur. The efficiencies of one aircraft type that's efficient and had maintenance benefits will outweigh parking 4 owner B777s? Medium-long term, this is a good potential. I don't think it's unreasonable that this will occur. VA's long haul is only a handful of aircraft compared to Qantas. Depsite a slow recovery, it won't take as long for VA to get to full capacity, with some widebody for Perth perhaps too and potentially other destinations.
Maybe the administrators have information that we don't showing something different, but even at cheap rates, buying/leasing a bunch of 787's when you (theoretically) don't have any idea when demand will return seems like its playing into severe danger. I believe it's safe to say domestic will recover far quicker than international, I'd be focusing on getting into a strong position there before heading into spending money on a fleet of new long haul jets. Losing 1x 777 and the A330's would actually be closer to "right sizing" the airline in some respects. Up side to the plan is, as pointed out is leases/list prices are going to be dirt cheap. And the type rating from my understanding is either the same or only requires a very small amount of differences training. But even still, leasing or buying jets that don't fly or fly empty is still going to be a huge loss maker. Now if this fabled second wave hits and a vaccine is as far off as they are saying it could be, if ever...well, it's almost too depressing to think about the impact it will have on the flying public. Won't just be VA in administration in that case. |
Originally Posted by LostWanderer
(Post 10782769)
Now if this fabled second wave hits and a vaccine is as far off as they are saying it could be, if ever...well, it's almost too depressing to think about the impact it will have on the flying public. Won't just be VA in administration in that case. |
People are looking past the fact that Virgin actually OWNS four 777s (and an A330)!
In this market of cheap gas + no one wanting/needing extra capacity, it is hard to see how they will be able to offload them.... The article is BS and a classic ExecTraveller hype article with zero substance. |
The 777s without large cargo doors are virtually worthless - they have very little capital value.
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Originally Posted by MelbourneFlyer
(Post 10782097)
JB talked several times about moving to a single type, Paul Scurrah was also known to want out of the A330 leases and get rid of the A330 anyway, so moving to that single type would also have been part of his plan.
Was around 2004-2005 when Brett Godfrey was giving one of his staff roadshows, I was in the crew room with the rest of the staff listening to him as he was extolling the virtues of single type. One of his statements was "as long as my bum is in this seat (referring to the CEO position), Virgin Blue would only ever be a single type operator"... Wasn't too much later, the E180's started showing up, then the tripler, dirty 330, ATR's, Fookers, even 320's... So much for single type!!! :ugh: |
Originally Posted by normanton
(Post 10782179)
It's all lollipops and rainbows.
International is dead for a long time. So my bets for regular passenger flights (without any quarantine) are:- OZ domestic - 1 JUNE or maybe intrastate only ? TT-1 JULY CANADA-1 AUGUST USA-1SEPT What dates are you all betting on ? |
Originally Posted by ABP
(Post 10782622)
This is simply a proposal from Deloitte to bidders of their view of VA moving forward for maximum benefit. B787 leases will be cheap now due to airlines wanting to cancel their orders. 1x B777 and 6x A330s are leased. Administraton allows for these leases to be cancelled. International travel won't occur properly until 2021, giving VA the time it needs for this fleet replacement should it occur. The efficiencies of one aircraft type that's efficient and had maintenance benefits will outweigh parking 4 owner B777s? Medium-long term, this is a good potential. I don't think it's unreasonable that this will occur. VA's long haul is only a handful of aircraft compared to Qantas. Depsite a slow recovery, it won't take as long for VA to get to full capacity, with some widebody for Perth perhaps too and potentially other destinations.
Surely V2 will be only B738s ? No A330s, No B777s flying, but will they be able to sell the 4 x B777s. No A320s, no F100s. What about ATRs ? If Rex go ahead, I think they will be flying ex VA 738s, with ex VA crews & other VA staff. |
OZ domestic - 1 JUNE or maybe intrastate only ? TT-1 JULY CANADA-1 AUGUST USA-1SEPT This will only accelerate once all republican states open up fully. |
Originally Posted by BNEA320
(Post 10782911)
NZ is talking about YVR to start soon, so you'll be able to fly Australia/AKL/YVR in couple of months & maybe SFO & LAX month after that.
Air NZ made no mention of starting anything except Tasman in their Webinar yesterday. Even Pacific is on hold due to the lack of medical facilities in those countries. You Aussies need to stop dreaming and start listening. Your revered Prime Minister has said "no international until after Christmas". |
Just ignore BNEA320. They talk a lot of **** with no substance.
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Big paint brush saying 320 represents what Australians think. My opinion is we won’t see any international outside the Tasman for 18 months minimum other than VERY limited services mostly for medical supplies with a few pax chucked in. Tasman is months away too, the states aren’t even close to opening their borders.
I have great fears for the states, that really is years away and therefore Canada by default. |
Originally Posted by ozbiggles
(Post 10782985)
Big paint brush saying 320 represents what Australians think. My opinion is we won’t see any international outside the Tasman for 18 months minimum other than VERY limited services mostly for medical supplies with a few pax chucked in. Tasman is months away too, the states aren’t even close to opening their borders.
I have great fears for the states, that really is years away and therefore Canada by default. |
Originally Posted by Chris2303
(Post 10782980)
There has been nothing in the NZ news about Air NZ restarting any international at all for the foreseeable future and, in fact, Saint Jacinda has made it clear that the border is closed until the end of the year (with the possible exception of Tasman).
Air NZ made no mention of starting anything except Tasman in their Webinar yesterday. Even Pacific is on hold due to the lack of medical facilities in those countries. You Aussies need to stop dreaming and start listening. Your revered Prime Minister has said "no international until after Christmas. You'd think anyone & everyone posting on here would be talking it up. Look at real estate ... it's stuffed as an investment, but every real estate agent in the country is saying it's not & so is media, cos billions are spent on real estate advertising in Australia every year. The more people holiday at home, the more jobs will be re-created. It's really that simple. Who ever takes what a pollie says as gospel. Surprise, "tomorrow"(whenever that is) it will be something like, you've all be so good in Qld with only 6 deaths, we'll reopen the borders. |
Originally Posted by BNEA320
(Post 10782911)
yes it will probably be a month before TT flights resume on a regular basis. NZ is talking about YVR to start soon, so you'll be able to fly Australia/AKL/YVR in couple of months & maybe SFO & LAX month after that. It should be noted that flights within USA have not been restricted at all, just less flights, but some are rather full. Announcements about having to wear masks, but these are not being enforced.
So my bets for regular passenger flights (without any quarantine) are:- OZ domestic - 1 JUNE or maybe intrastate only ? TT-1 JULY CANADA-1 AUGUST USA-1SEPT What dates are you all betting on ? |
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12332155
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says any transtasman travel agreement will not happen quickly and is more than "weeks" away. Ardern said she could not put a timeframe on when travel to Australia might resume - but warned "it won't be weeks" - it would be longer. She said she did not want travel to and from Australia to endanger the very low rates of the virus in New Zealand. However, Flight Centre founder and CEO Graham Turner, said on Friday morning international travel between Australia and New Zealand could be July. I think I've identified BNEA320 - he is Graham Turner from Flight Centre |
You have to define what a restart is, because australia <-> Us flights never stopped. American and united have been running daily flights. Singapore have been running daily as well. Qatar have been running twice daily to some aus capital to doha. International flights never stopped they just massively decreased
It will be when changes to quarrantine happens, they will respond to demand and inrease flights if needed |
Originally Posted by Chris2303
(Post 10783012)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12332155
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says any transtasman travel agreement will not happen quickly and is more than "weeks" away. Ardern said she could not put a timeframe on when travel to Australia might resume - but warned "it won't be weeks" - it would be longer. She said she did not want travel to and from Australia to endanger the very low rates of the virus in New Zealand. However, Flight Centre founder and CEO Graham Turner, said on Friday morning international travel between Australia and New Zealand could be July. I think I've identified BNEA320 - he is Graham Turner from Flight Centre |
Originally Posted by rattman
(Post 10783017)
You have to define what a restart is, because australia <-> Us flights never stopped. American and united have been running daily flights. Singapore have been running daily as well. Qatar have been running twice daily to some aus capital to doha. International flights never stopped they just massively decreased
It will be when changes to quarrantine happens, they will respond to demand and inrease flights if needed |
Originally Posted by rattman
(Post 10783017)
You have to define what a restart is, because australia <-> Us flights never stopped. American and united have been running daily flights. Singapore have been running daily as well. Qatar have been running twice daily to some aus capital to doha. International flights never stopped they just massively decreased
It will be when changes to quarrantine happens, they will respond to demand and inrease flights if needed Aside from the QF/VA operating the government subsidised once-weekly LAX repatriation charters, it's only UA doing the regular scheduled Australia-USA non-stops atm (The sole route being SYD-SFO which is mostly empty pax-wise, carrying mostly freight). |
US Domertic
Originally Posted by t_cas
(Post 10782993)
The USA will be fine. They do not need much. Trade with Mexico will keep them going for a while. The domestic market is huge and resilient.
Airports are still quiet, but people are flying.... |
Mass tourism can’t start until reasonably priced travel insurance, covering covid19, is available. Don’t hold your breath.
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Yes, but they won’t be flying to Aus or NZ on QA,VA or NZ aircraft be they 777 or whatever the media is trying to speculate on for VA. That is what I meant by my concern for the US. It seems America is going to let covid rip across the country so I can’t see down under opening up any boarders to our Seppo mates in the next 12-18 months minimum. The media in Oz have been digging up some old plans to replace their 777s. I can’t see what Virgin Australia are going to do with their 777 Now let alone think about replacing them.
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Originally Posted by ozbiggles
(Post 10783395)
Yes, but they won’t be flying to Aus or NZ on QA
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There would probably be a 1-2 year lead time to get a 787 program operational so the 777s can hang around for the moment. A330 fleet all leased and can go right now.
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I actually think the creditors will be going for every cent they can get. That includes selling the fully owned 777 frames, even if it means they go dirt cheap.
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Originally Posted by normanton
(Post 10783865)
I actually think the creditors will be going for every cent they can get. That includes selling the fully owned 777 frames, even if it means they go dirt cheap.
I guess it could depend on what the remaining prospective buyers have in mind. We all know international flying will be a long time coming back to anywhere near pre-covid days. So, despite the 777s being owned, can they justify hanging on to them 'just in case" OS flying opens up? Keep them in mothballs indefinitely hoping for an improved market, try to sell them soon at fire sale prices into what must be a massively over supplied used airframe market, or hang and sell upon some recovery? None are ideal by any stretch. Like most in the industry I think domestic flying should kick off much sooner than OS flying in any scale. Are new owners interested in OS flying at all? Is a south Pacific bubble really viable and can that justify keeping the 777s to compete with Air NZ and Qantas? A lot of crystal ball stuff that's beyond me. |
Many large corporate contracts Virgin have require USA travel. A large chunk of the corporate revenue will go if they drop USA. They were approaching 40% Corp share (growing, QF falling, does not get a mention anywhere) here so it’s largely a big hit to the bottom line that also then flows to domestic, should they axe the states. Pretty vital piece of the puzzle.
New Zealand is the cash burner and not so reliant on Corp traffic. 777 fleet is 80% owned. One can go, some heavy checks can probably take place forward to burn time. |
If the Administrators can get the Financial institutions who have loaned money against the B777's to take a haircut then yes they will own them. No real secondary market in wide-bodies right now with Leasing companies offering refinancing at low numbers on the dollar. Not a time to sell them really if they can avoid it. USA won't open up for a long time to Australia though so no where to fly them except on freight operations. As for bringing forward the Heavy maintenance that is the last thing you want to do for cash flow purposes. Every time you open a 12 year aircraft up in a C Check you can expect some nasty surprises. I am sure the Administrator doesn't want to deal with that.... Once they are right to operate to the USA though they may be too big for purpose. Let's hope that this COVID issue comes to an end and things can start to get back to 80% of what was happening before by late next year. I don't like the chances though.
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