Future of Jetstar
 

Qantas are looking to exit from Jetstar Pacific in Vietnam. They are probably looking at a period of consolidation and belt tightening in preparation for the post COVID-19 era. Divesting themselves of loss making foreign ventures is likely to be high up on the agenda. Jetstar Asia in Singapore have suspended flights until 19 May and might not be too far behind. What is Jetstar Australia's place likely to be, as mainline will certainly make sure they are looked after first ? With Virgin likely to be a shadow of their former size if they survive at all, and excess capacity from reduced international flying, JQ might be inline for restructuring.

A future JQ could be an important part of QF, catering to a new era of very budget minded passengers and also keeping any new airlines from being too profitable. It could also much less important with the competition crippled and reduced mainline international flying leaving spare capacity. If Virgin go under and there is no replacement it may have to be spun off to prevent QF having a monopoly.

In any scenario if anything is losing money, be it routes, bases or subsidiaries it will be on the chopping block.

https://vietnaminsider.vn/will-jetst...ffload-shares/

If Virgin fall over (unfortunately, looking possible), I can see a period with Qantas holding a monopoly until the end of COVID.

Thereafter, I can imagine the space being filled with a foreign-backed carrier. I believe revenues on tickets are relatively much higher in Australia than Asian and may other parts of the world.

I would think Singapore Airlines will also be hit hard by COVID. Speculating that they don’t have their own ‘domestic’ market (ie closed borders affect them as a small island nation). They might be looked to invest in a market that does and can operate within its own borders. Singaporeans are indeed astute businessmen. I heard they just raised some capital. Whether that’s to find heir fight or else, we can only take blind guesses. Maybe both?

Whatever carrier fills the space of Virgin, you can be sure it will be a lean and mean operation. Any previous non-profitable routes cut, rock-bottom contracts with suppliers and workforce. (Not to mention also assisted/facilitated entry by Aus Govt). What specific section of the market will they aim for? We will have to wait and see.

The dual-brand strategy might yet be needed to fend off the new entrant. Time will tell.

Regardless, I do hope that all find their way back to flying one way or another.

To my colleagues over fence who fly for VA, please take care and look after one another. We are all going to be affected by this and stand with you. If anyone is in a spot of bother, please reach out to your friends in industry. Families don’t understand the pressures we work with. Remember that you’re their hero; whether you drive a haul truck or Airbus truck, they don’t care. (Your perception they do is all in your mind).

Good luck to all. Merry Easter....

The way I see it, Jetstar serves 3 purposes for the Qantas Group:

1. To operate routes at a lower cost base than mainline to destinations where mainline’s higher cost base cannot achieve a worthwhile return.

2. To make business difficult for any other competing low-cost operators (or indeed medium-cost carriers such as VA, which has sadly had an identity problem ever since JB took over).

3. To provide a point of significant differentiation from the full-service mainline product.

It does not exist to directly add a significant profit to the bottom line, although it’s nice when it does. The bottom line is improved merely by it’s existence and it’s negative effect on competition.

No matter what anyone might like to think, this strategy has been enormously successful for the Qantas Group. It has kept VA struggling and has successfully neutered any new or potential entrants to the market. Of course I am talking about JQ domestic here, the JQ 787 operation is a different animal, and no-one has ever worked out why that still exists.

Selling JQ would completely go against the entire philosophy.

Being forced by the ACCC to split off JQ (in the event of a failure of VA), whilst not impossible in the current environment (nothing is!), would be extremely unlikely in my opinion. QF would easily be able to argue that the two airlines are complementary, and there is plenty of room for a new entrant once the market picks up.

In fact, many would argue that if JQ was spun off, it could struggle to even survive. Its critical mass could make it possible, but QF has bigger pockets, and if QF decided that the company they were forced to sell is now the enemy (which it would be), they could go on the offensive against it! And probably succeed. Network would pick up a whole bunch of cheap A320’s and crew overnight, and suddenly we’re back where we started, only worse.

Furthermore, Government leaders have already suggested that should VA fail, they would assist a new start-up to prevent an ongoing monopoly (whatever that means). Will it be Richard Branson’s Virgin MkII, Strategic MkII, SilkAus, LionAus, AirNZAus, RyanAus? Who knows. Maybe SouthWestAus, that could be nice. Or Alliance might just decide to fill in the gap, that could be nice, too.

Please let me end by saying that I desperately hope that VA makes it. I really feel for my VA colleagues going through this, I think about it several times per day.

Qantas will use the pandemic to exit all Jetstar Asian brands. They were never a profitable proposition. Renewed nationalism will destroy them anyway.

A "AirNzAus" or a "SilkAus" are extremely unlikely. Both owners of those brands got bailed out by their governments, and Silk is being absorbed into their mainline SQ brand.
Also to add both companies' previous attempts in the Australian market had ended in dismal failures.

SIA (Singapore Government) or Air NZ (NZ Government/NZ Investors) aren't that stupid to have a 4th attempt (or 3rd attempt in NZ's case) at the Australian market.

Especially when pointing out the incompetence both SIA and Air NZ had when they had full 100% control on one of their Australian attempts (For SIA that was Tiger Airway AU and Air NZ that was Ansett), and yet still couldn't get that attempt right due to a mixture of incompetence and egos.

Getting back on topic re Jetstar. The companies QF owns less than 49% of, I can see them exiting (Jetstar Pacific, Jetstar Japan, etc). As for Jetstar NZ, there's also a good chance of JQ exiting that and transferring those aircraft back to Australian Domestic/Trans-Tasman runs. JQ has already exited regional NZ operations and transferred those aircraft back to QFLink.

Assuming that SIA doesn't have a 4th attempt at the Australian domestic market, I could see QF exiting 3K (Jetstar Asia) being a possibility by selling their 49% stake to another company.

Either way, JQi in Australia is a good chance of being decimated if not folded up entirely. A post COVID-19 JQ-i could have their international flying reduced to just Trans-Tasman, Fiji and Bali "bogan-bus" flying with A320neos and A321LRs, whilst exiting long-haul completely with the 788 fleet transferred to QF mainline.

Some very well thought out scenarios posted above, my take is fairly similar.

1. If Virgin are resurrected into a chopped down operation then JQ can be pulled back as well. Keep it for flying bogans to the Gold Coast and other routes which can't support mainline. No need to use it on major city pairs to undermine the competition anymore. Use COVID-19 as the perfect excuse to abandon the pan Asian strategy which wasn't working anyway. Lose most of the international routes especially the B787 ones, possibly retain AKL and DPS flights with inconvenient times so as not to pull pax away from mainline. Keep enough aircraft as a deterrent to anyone who may consider going head to head with QF again in the future.

2. If Virgin go under and another operator steps in then close the loss making entities as described above, but retain a larger domestic network to keep the new entrant in check.

3. If Virgin go under and no one else steps in, then a permanent monopoly won't be allowed. The ACCC will want competition and the government won't want the QF unions to have them by the short and curlies like the MUA do on the waterfront. In this case they can structure JQ so as to sell it for a decent price whilst making sure it can't compete too aggressively with it's former parent.

Funnily enough, Qantas seem to come out ahead whatever happens.

Jetstar was started up because QF had to respond to Virgin undercutting them on price because of a lower cost base. Simple solution was to subsidise JQ to beat Virgin at their own game. Secondarily JQ could replace mainline QF operations where there was little demand for business class. QF has been ruthless in managing yield and put the screws on Virgin. Borghetti responded by trying to compete for the premium market and bingo, cost went through the roof and we are now where we are. That means that QF will keep JQ , keep its cost base as low as possible and make sure nobody is stupid enough to try and replace Virgin when it fails.

Post Covid , assuming Virgin folds , with a subsequent Qantas monopoly, divesting Jetstar might be a Government mandated necessity?
Jetsarts lower cost base may very well be non existent come a depressionary post Covid induced rejig of the way things were ?
Qantas May very well end up 1/2 the size it was if the economic reset is anywhere near as bad as what some pundits are predicting !
Sorry but which business entity would have more chance of survival , particularly with a global meltdown ?
Alan’s , johnny come lately folly , or a 100 year stalwart ?

As I posted on another thread, JQ to take the lions share of Domestic & QF going back to mainly INTL flying. My 2c.

Kris,

I think you are close to the money with points 1 and 2.

I can’t see point 3 happening. This is still a free market economy. The ACCC don’t just get to walk in to a business and break it up because they “want competition”, and especially not just because the competition went bankrupt.

The ACCC is quite happy with monopolies all over the country.

If there is a temporary airline monopoly I’m sure the Govt will take steps to temper the gouging, but a monopoly won’t last.

In fact, during the recovery, and I don’t think any of us can predict exactly how the recovery will take place, even with only one airline, I don’t predict too much gouging. Look at it this way, you have an airline in a slowly recovering economy with too many aircraft, and too many employees. What would you do? Raise prices? I don’t think so. I think you would offer bargain basement prices to get all the employees and aircraft working again, boost the economic outlook, and do everything you can to persuade the travelling public that flying is suddenly cool again. After all, you know you won’t get back in the black until all those planes are back in the air and full of punters.

It will be down the track, once the economy is back on track and the load factors are sustainable that the gouging becomes a potential problem. And don’t forget, the airline that survived this will have burned billions in cash getting through it. The economy is going to have to pay for this little social experiment one way or another. Expecting slightly higher taxes for the next decade or two? Or course! Higher airfares? Maybe! Is that unreasonable?

But as for competition? Something will emerge. Airline Entrepreneurs can’t help themselves, especially when a State Government is getting toey for a bit of investment. And they will be. But they won’t be interested until they have someone to undercut! And there won’t be any potential to undercut until the planes are full again. Don’t forget, the LCC model relies on full aircraft.

JQ is a very useful and proven weapon to retain against anyone trying to go into Qantas's 2/3 of the market, however if no one steps up into the remaining 1/3 within a year or two of a Virgin collapse they may not be able to keep it. In this scenario a Scoot take over of JQ may not be as far out of the field as it first seems.

SIA should come through this but its primary market of premium passengers won't. Those suites and lie flat business class seats will be mostly empty and the economy seats heavily discounted so they need to look for a growth area. Tiger Airways Australia was a debacle, going up against three much larger and well entrenched opponents with a handful of aircraft managed from a portacabin in the car park wasn't going to work anyway. When you add in someone at the top who thought he could play fast and loose with the rules it would never succeed.

The Chinese have a culture of not repeating failure and in a vastly different environment it could be 4th time lucky. Few entities will have any spare cash going and even fewer will be keen to risk it on an airline. Singapore Incorporated should have something left in the kitty and might consider the risk acceptable this time based on:

1. No competition, 2/3 for QF and 1/3 for Scoot, each respects the others market. QF set the fare and Scoot go in 15% under ie too much for the bogans to trade up and not worth it for the top end to trade down. Why have a price war when they can both make more money without one ? This time no one is out to destroy them, peaceful coexistence in a comfortable duopoly. If Virgin had gone along with this strategy instead of starting price and capacity wars they wouldn't be where they are today, going for the corporate market was unforgivable.
2. The operation is already up and running at a decent size with CASA approved people and structures in place. No year long ramp up.
3. Same aircraft as used by Scoot already.
4. AirAsia, Cebu Pacific, the Indonesian, Chinese,Vietnamese and Indian low costs all have a large home market and operate domestic flights. Scoot have a small home market (relatively wealthy though) and no domestic flights. Australia would give them that and fit well into the overall network.
5. SIA could stress the benefits to Australia of maintaining competition on the domestic front and providing connections to the all important Asian markets. There are strong ties between Australia and Singapore already, if a local entity can't take over JQ then Singapore is the next best thing.

Really?

In the short term I predict almost the opposite.

In the early stages of the recovery, I predict very little JQ domestic, and QF INTL flying will remain at the skeleton freight/govt subsidised level.

Do you think JQ will pick up because Jack and Shazza missed out on their Easter Gold Coast apartment booking, and they might get to re-use their credit in September? Do you think the $89 credit that Jetstar is withholding from Jack and Shazza is going to hold up the business so they can shut down QF mainline?

QF domestic wiill increase in accordance with demand based on relaxations to business travel, not leisure. That is why JQ will not recover as quickly as QF domestic. Look, I think both will recover equally in the end, really, but I think business will lead the charge.

For example, I predict that one of the first relaxations will be that for example a Mining Engineering Consultant from Melbourne will be allowed to finally visit their minesite project in QLD that they were supposed to inspect 2 weeks ago until they suddenly weren’t allowed to. These jobs aren’t going away, they are building up while the poor sods in charge of serious jobs they are responsible for are supposedly working from home. With every day, these companies are losing more millions, and they won’t tolerate it for long. These will be the first people to be “relaxed” in a gradual wind-down of Covid-19 protection measures, and they are the high-value clients of Qantas domestic. Not Jetstar, sorry. They pay $500 for a ticket, not $50.

I suggest that the pent-up demand in business travel required by those who actually have and would need to travel to get this economy happening again will surprise even Qantas. There is only so much you can do on Skype when you have a multi-million dollar project happening in another state, which is only stalled on the basis of the whim of a government official, and could be revoked next week, next month, 3 months, next year, who knows?

Hi Kris,
Either I’m not understanding your posts or you are not understanding mine.

You’ve given many reasons why SQ might like to buy JQ from QF and re-brand it as Scoot.

But you haven’t given a single reason why QF would want to sell it. I’ve given you many reasons why it won’t be for sale. I’ve also given my reasons for why I don’t believe there will be a forced sale.

I don’t speak for QF, but as far as I can predict, JQ is not for sale. So, what’s your point?

And what if Qantas Group just tells the Government "If you want JQ as a separate entity you pay for it or we close it down."

Bearing in mind all the rumours on here in particular that JQ bills QF for a lot of it's outgoings such as fuel and maintenance, spinning JQ off could end in it's demise anyway

All of these scenarios imply that the business and political environment will be the same post-covid as before. We still don’t know anything about the recovery horizon yet. There are lots of hopeful stories about possible vaccines, possible treatments etc, but nothing that you can hang your hat on.

During the recovery there will be a glut of cheap airframes, and still cheapish fuel, but perhaps the revenue side of the equation will be diminished. I winder if there will be many backers left willing to invest in airlines when there will be many more obvious bargains to be had in other industries.

Here's a mostly rhetorical question: why would a government facing a crippling debt allow foreign airlines, or really any corporations, to operate carte blanche within its borders? Would it not make more sense to insist that employees and head offices are locally based and locally taxed? Or at least taxed on the portion of their assessed profits earned locally? Protectionism may be necessary for a decade or so to restore the world to an even keel. It seems from down here in the cheap seats that globalisation as a strategy is going to get some serious re-thinking.

I am (reluctantly) reading opinions in the conservative media suggesting that the economy (profits) are more important than the death toll. Apparently serious people in the UK and the US are advocating this, although mostly in media affiliated with the Murdoch press. Why do you think that the very wealthy are afraid of pandemics? Its because afterward the door will be wide open for a new politics that focuses more on the commonwealth than the very few very wealthy. That is how revolutions happen, and apple carts get upset. We seem to be a long way from that today, but who knows where this road ends?

I think you’ll find that businesses who have been using Skype/zoom meetings for 6,12,18 months (however long this crisis lasts) will begin to wonder why they’re spending the time and money to send people around the country for business meetings. That’s the feedback from my friends in the corporate world. It obviously won’t disappear entirely but a percentage of that traffic may not exist in the post COVID 19 world.

However Shazza still can’t skype in that holiday to the Gold Coast. If restrictions are lifted in time for schoolies or the Christmas school holidays, I think you’ll find there will be plenty of leisure demand.

and here is where I think you are wrong. Many companies will find video conferencing works pretty well nowadays. For those who do need face time after months and months of bleeding money they will absolutely spend 50 over 500 bucks to get from A to B if offered by a LCC instead of QF. In good times LCCs fly a lot of people who normally don’t fly much. In bad times they fly people who want to scale down / start watching their bottom line more. Business and leisure wise.

Jetstar, Qantas and Virgin will be smaller for quite a while. It’s not rocket science! Who else are going to lose their job? Seriously bad situation.

Its hard to know if the speculation on here is delusional or hopeful? Probably both.

QF won’t want to sell JQ, it gives them a bigger market share, enables them to run routes which mainline can’t make a profit on and enables them to undermine the competition on price whilst they maintain fare levels, it’s brilliant. Whilst the actual numbers might show a loss, the overall contribution to the big picture is huge. Full service airlines running low cost subsidiaries doesn’t usually work too well but it certainly has here.

If Virgin go under, maintaining air services will be the priority rather than competition and having QF/JQ as the only airline might be acceptable for a couple of years but ultimately there will have to be an independent alternative or the government may require JQ to be sold off.

A QF monopoly may be acceptable with price controls and full regulation regarding routes and schedules but that’s the last thing they want. There needs to be an Australian version of Southwest Air or easyJet rather than another full service airline trying to go head on at QF. There is an acceptable degree of competition and both companies can make money.

In lean economic times, Qantas uses Jetstar domestic more because of the low operating cost base compared to mainline.

When times are good, the profit margin is greater on domestic mainline and Jetstar tends to suffer.

So, in view of the undoubted recession (or depression, depending on your view) ahead, I don't see Jetstar domestic going anywhere soon.

However, Jetstar's international 787 operation has a huge question mark over it, as worldwide border controls are likely to force massive reductions in operations even after the initial restrictions are slowly removed. If it resumes, the 787 operation will be very small for some time. During this period of restarting international routes, Qantas will also probably want to take advantage of greater margins using the mainline fleet by removing the LCC element. This is a significant advantage, given that there will probably be fewer international operators and at a much less frequency.

Probably more depends on leasing arrangements. I believe for domestic, QF own most of its 737 and over half A330 fleet whilst Jetstar relies more on leasing, but it does own some. I would expect it much easier to arrange cheaper storage leases than when the aircraft are flying. Thus, using mainline with its fully owned fleet could be the cheapest option.

The last thing the Government will want (even if it could afford it - and it won't) is an airline. This country (and the world) is headed for one of the biggest recessions we will probably ever witness and it will be deep and long lasting. "Things" are not going to be as they were in six months time. Tourism, sport, theatre, small business, big business etc., are going to take years to regain profitability, many won't rebuild and those that do will come out a very different model.
Forget about overseas travel as most of the countries that the tourists frequent will be in the same boat as Australia (probably worse, (given the demographics). Most of us won't be able to afford it anyway.

On the bright side, we will be able to tour this fine country and this may be the catalyst for reestablishing the manufacturing industries in Australia that were sold off during the "good times"! The AFL,NRL and Cricket Australia will, through necessity, be leaner and more attuned to the needs of the supporter rather than the corporates. We may even get to see a AFL Grand Final for a reasonable priced ticket!

Priority now is to look after our families and Mates so we can come out the end of this in reasonable shape.

Happy Easter to all and don't eat too many eggs!!!!

And what data do you base that on? During the GFC JQ was 3 years old. Qantas took advantage of the vacuum left by Ansett and the cheap aircraft at the time to expand aggressively. It also did this to leverage a growing virgin with a cheaper cost base.

Times are different now and Qantas is Qantas. If it comes down to it, it’ll save itself and mothball or shed the rest.

Jetstar is a great operation. It stimulates the
market and allows many to fly who ordinarily wouldn’t. However it caters to a price sensitive market and that market will be savaged by what’s coming.

It also depends on what happens over the fence. If the worst happens, Qantas has no urgent need to stoke up the Jetstar boiler. It can focus on yield and it’s core business. If the competition survives, Jetstar will be needed as before. It’ll also be needed if another player enters the market.

The cost base difference between QF and JQ would be totally different now than it was at JQ's inception or the GFC. I doubt the future of JQ is in doubt, but it too won't be the airline it once was.

I think this quote highlights a misunderstanding of the structure of the Qantas Group. The ‘us and them’ mindset that some frontline staff have between the airlines I don’t believe is the mindset at a CEO/Board level.

The Qantas Group is just that, a group of airlines. Qantas domestic, qantas international, QantasLink, Jetstar. Each a seperate and equal part of the group.

Joyce came from Jetstar, now group CEO. His most likely successor, Gareth Evans, currently the Jetstar CEO. This idea that Qantas will ‘save itself’ doesn’t really stack up. Jetstar is as much a part of the Qantas group as any other airline from a CEO/board level perspective.

Even now, with zero demand we’re running 1 qantas 737, 1 Jetstar A320 and 1 qlink Dash 8.
Each part of the group still running.

It remains to be seen if Virgin will return its Tiger brand. They said they would, and was fairly defensive when questioned, but things have deteriorated further since then, and it’s more overheads gone if they are going down the route of a more basic 2008 level of 50 73s and 4 777.

Tiger had 17-18 aircraft recently. That’s a lot of capacity given to Jetstar when the Dom market bounces back in 2021.

JQ also have a monopoly in many markets. Cairns, Gold Coast. These flights largely are filled with Chinese tourists. And it appears these travelers will be back again more so before our own domestic local traffic.

They operate 6 flights a day A321 Melbourne to Cairns between May to September. Tiger had 1. Virgin and have one. These flights are full. They also have 15 flights a day Melbourne to Sydney A321. On some days they carry more passengers than Virgin. It’s the price sensitive corporate traffic which is growing and even more so now.

I don’t think that point is true. I think what AJ meant was these aircraft operating between Syd-Mel, as He was comparing the group to VA in that they would operate 1 flight a day on that route. There are many 737’s operating out west, for example.

ah, I may have misunderstood! Happy to be corrected if wrong :)

but I guess it still backs up my point, even in these dark times they’re splitting the flying between the different parts of the business.

The feedback from friends and siblings in the corporate world is that Zoom meetings have enforced how important it is to get proper face to face time. Body language, verbal inflections in the voice that are hidden in Zoom meetings, the ability to have quick side chats with multiple players once the ‘formalities’ are done. They all indicate that they can’t wait to get moving again.

They also won’t be travelling Jetstar. Not reliable enough in terms of OTP, not enough schedule flexibility, too many cancelled flights without the fallback of another flight in 15-30 minutes, no lounges.

Not every suit has the same opinion I suppose. Jetstar already carries plenty of SME price sensitive business traffic. When budgets get slashed during recessions, I don’t think lounges matter so much or the minor annoyances of Skype/Zoom.

I’ve read a few articles which differ in opinion as to whether business travel will rebound strongly post COVID 19. I won’t cherry pick the articles that suit my contention but it’s fair to say there are varied opinions. Only time will tell.

Theory is all well and good. JQ and QF is a formidable set up. How the new world order will shake out has as much to do with the ownership structure of the aircraft as it does customer demand. There is no V shaped bounce back in demand. For the next couple of years managing the surplus aircraft (lease or debt repayments) will be as important as trying to match segmental demand.

Let’s face it everyone, nobody has any idea what will happen, there are just too many variables. Jetstar in Oz and NZ has a lower cost base so could be cheaper to run and will limit losses, although they are primarily leisure airlines which may or may not be the last domestic market to come back to life. When redundancy is needed it will be cheaper in the short term to cut Jetstar pilots but in the long term cheaper for cost to weaken the mainline group. Maybe Joyce can be taken at face value when he says he wants to retain everyone as many are saying recovery of most operations will happen within 5 years. Remember how they were struggling to find pilots, if China has beaten this thing then it won’t be long before their airlines will be wanting people back. Emirates is already starting some limited flying again and will no doubt be straight back in the air when a vaccine is found or international travel starts again. I am sure that airlines like Qantas do not others to get the jump on them, on the other hand they have said they will only increase flights as demand dictates so they may dribble capacity back into the system. Maybe they will shut the whole thing down. Air NZ’s apparent plan to make so many redundant will take 18 months to action with the amount of down training required, this will be a a huge cost and will probably be finished just in time to start recruitment again, maybe Qantas thinks that LWOP is the answer as they expect to need everyone back. The last airline I took voluntary redundancy from during the GFC stated it was required due to the outlook and there would be no recruitment for between 2-5 years, I had only been gone 8 months when they contacted me asking if I wanted to come back, so who the hell knows.

Yep. That sums it up

You conveniently overlooked something or don't remember history all that well.

In the case of Ansett, yes there was some egos involved, but there was a significant degree of underarm bowling involving the Australian regulator working as a proxy for QF or other entities.

Anyhow I don't see Air NZ bothering with the Australian market for a multitude of reasons. They'll stick to their knitting.

I think we can stop using the word "recession", once the lights go back on we'll realise we're in a depression like we've never seen before. Recovery will be like the aftermath of a major war and there won't be a strong United States to bail Australia out. The lockdown can only last for so long, it won't eliminate COVID-19 and enable us to walk out our front doors into a virus free world. However with everyone now taking precautions that they weren't taking in the early days it might be enough to break the back of the pandemic and reduce it to a manageable level. People will keep getting infected and some will die but hopefully at a rate that the health system can cope with.

The easing of the lockdown will be gradual and in measured stages, we ground to a halt fairly quickly but the return to normality will take a lot longer. Domestic flights will be the first to resume but at a greatly reduced rate as the demand simply won't be there. International will take longer due to dearer flights and much of the world being off limits eg Africa and India won't be able to bring the virus under control in the same way that New Zealand and South Korea have.

Many QF international destinations are direct routes and with Australia not being a hub, QF will be far less impacted than Emirates who will lose substantial portions of their network for a long time and be avoided by passengers who won't want to mix with people from multiple countries when changing aircraft. In the early stages EK may have to operate SYD - LHR with the same aircraft and pax load with the stop in Dubai simply to change crew and refuel. This could build up to limited transfers involving safe countries in a separate terminal after a while, but the major hub operation will take a long time to return. Much of QFs international network is to countries which are likely to be able to recover from the outbreak within a reasonable time. The loss of Africa won't be that important for QF but it will be highly significant for EK. The partner/competitor will be nobbled, QF and BA could be the preferred airlines on the kangaroo route, just like the old days.

The wave hit first in East Asia and this region will likely be the first to recover, a holiday or business travel to Australia may be a better option than Europe or the USA for Chinese, Japanese and Koreans with health certificates.

Couldn't agree more with your comments. The longer this hibernation goes on for the more likely there will be barely enough work for a perhaps up to 1/2 of the pre COVID 19 QF. There will be enough space for other entrants to attempt to enter the market once things pick up again.

[QUOTE=Keg;10747269]The feedback from friends and siblings in the corporate world is that Zoom meetings have enforced how important it is to get proper face to face time. Body language, verbal inflections in the voice that are hidden in Zoom meetings, the ability to have quick side chats with multiple players once the ‘formalities’ are done. They all indicate that they can’t wait to get moving again.

/QUOTE]
that is not what I have been hearing at all, quite the opposite in fact. My parents in law (both office workers, one self employed) are both planning to switch to more online communication. Especially being of an older generation, this has been a forced introduction to technology. Othes are hoping to push for more working from home, if only a few days a week. On top of that, many businesses will need to recover losses in the years ahead and any non essential travel will be the first to go.

Not to say that business travel is over, of course not. However it will be significantly reduced and I think it isn't hard to draw that conclusion. It's about time too, we weren't fully utilising video conferencing in the way that we should have been.

​​Why do we spend hours each day sitting in cars/trains only to sir at a desk etc when such work can be done from home? Quite frankly it's ridiculous. It isn't 1950 anymore.

And what was he doing before he was CEO at JQ?

which major war? Because both world wars had polar opposite recoveries.
ww1 was followed by recession

ww2 recovery is also called the “golden age of capitalism”