PPRuNe Forums - Speculation at QF

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My own speculation.

There are currently 18 A321 LR's and 36 A321 XLR's on order (firm) for the Qantas Group. The majority of these will go to JQ to replace the B787-8 on Asian routes - the B787's will transfer to mainline as replacements for the older A330's which are coming up for retirement but there has been no announcements about ordering more A330's or looking for a replacement. It's a good way to get mainline to pay for the heavy maintenance checks on the B787's.

At least 15 of those A321 orders will probably go to mainline to replace the 15 B737-800's that were ordered after the Ansett collapse, these are the oldest in the domestic fleet. This will give mainline an aircraft sized between the B737-800 & the A330-200 - they have been missing the B767 ever since they retired that fleet. Once the A321's have established themselves in mainline operations, the rest of the B737 fleet will be replaced by A320's & A321's over a 15 year period.

Mainline Domestic will eventually be an all Airbus operation and International will be all Boeing (after 2027) as the B777-8/9's will be ordered to replace the A380's and B787-10's will be ordered to replace the remaining A330's (the B747's have already been replaced - APPARENTLY).

There will be many that disagree with this but, time will tell.

The two reasons that I’ve heard why the B777 will get the Sunrise gig:

The cost benefits of the B787/B777 single endorsement are more significant (& longer) than the A330/A350 cross crewing. The A330 will be retired by 2025 and there is quite a technology difference between the two Airbuses.

Also, the current QF management have a bit of an anti Rolls-Royce thing going and that’s the only engine available on the A350.

The fact that the A321’s have been already ordered indicates that the B737 Max won’t be chosen, irrespective of how good a deal Boeing offers. The Max is also very poisoned in the minds of the travelling public.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Going Boeing (Post 10613607)

That sounds pretty logical actually. The only small disagreement I'd have is that the shorter range (-10s) and some of the -8s will probably be used on Domestic as well if they are replacing the A330s so I would expect the narrow body mainline QF domestic fleet will be A320/A321neo and the wide body trans-continental duties will be performed by either 787-8 or 787-10 which will give the flexibility of a small or large 787 type wide body to operate in domestic and international. The original plan when the 115 orders/options for 787-8/787-9 was that the -8s would go to JQ and a mix of -8/-9 would go to QF and replace ALL of the A330s and 767s.

As I said in another post, I prefer Boeing but the proposition of the A320/21 and the ULD aspect as well as the efficiency of the aircraft is compelling and will probably win the day. Looking at it from a Group perspective then, "Qantas Group" will have essentially three main aircraft types in numbers - A320/A321, B787-8/-9/-10 and B777-8 or 9. One would expect the A220 will then replace all the F100s and B717s.

Yeah, I agree with your summary AP, the A220 looks the obvious choice for replacing the B717 & F100 fleets.

The B787-10 range is about 1,000NM shorter than the -9 so it’s still enough to reach all the Asian destinations with a full payload. I’ve heard that Boeing is offering a MBRW for the -10 that is a few tonnes higher which will give it more flexibility.

The possibility of domestic flying for the B787 was one of the reasons why AIPA insisted that MDC be retained despite very strong efforts by QF management to get rid of it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AerialPerspective (Post 10612888)

II still prefer the Boeing but the prospect of A320s with ULDs is a much better proposition than bulk compartment on the 737 with magic carpet.

No one ever mentions how expensive the 737 really is when you factor in the compo payouts for that manual loading.

Quote:

Yeah, I agree with your summary AP, the A220 looks the obvious choice for replacing the B717 & F100 fleets.

.... except Qantas wont pay what Airbus can and are asking for them. Joyce basically said as much in the media release.

My money is on the 737 max (surely they will be giving them away for a while) complemented by Embraer (Boeing) for the 717. The F100s probably replaced with more high time 320s ex Jetstar.