source: https://bitre.gov.au/publications/on...lications.aspx
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....2dc4bb594e.jpg

Thank you CT, the BITRE figures are also indicative that the aircraft is payload constrained ex YPPH.
That the under floor cargo capacity and (indeed in some cases as suggested by other posters) seats are blocked off highlight just how marginal it is.

A well structured fleet plan, financed and executed never sees aircraft needing to operate well beyond the design sweet spot.

• As dragon man highlighted the 737 east to Bali is another example where a type is operated well beyond optimum.

That the aircraft seems to not carry much freight westbound shows this route to be very limiting. Indeed the BITRE panel data supports a substantial decline in freight tonnage YOY. This ought largely be the change in aircraft type as the schedule is almost identical.
That the aircraft needs to block out seats, not for freight but literally to reduce weight and maximise fuel uplift indicates that the route is a long way beyond optimum.

If the LF inclusive of the YMML passenger are into the 'high 90's' then blocking out those seats when the 'environmental variables' come into the mix is another inference that the route is beyond the aircraft.

It may be worth 'having a go', but with the caveat that if the 'environmental variables' impact upon the operation sufficiently, the customers will, as they demonstrated when Little Napoleon spent $100m moving the hub to Dubai, only to spend another $60 million moving it back, continue to opt for a short transit through Singapore. Marketing aside, the customer has a choice from Melbourne, either stop in Singapore after their flight from Melbourne and then fly to Heathrow. Or stop in Perth, then spend longer on the second leg.
As Cathay, Singapore and most of the other airlines flying through Asia to Europe found when Little Napoleon abandoned Asia, passengers will vote with their feet.
Let us see how the Northern winter develops, as Qantas will no doubt completely inform the travelling public if the schedule integrity is found wanting.

There are eight aircraft Lancer. JQ have another 100 coming. Mr Dixon ordered the aircraft in 2006.

Having established with certain media outlets, a narrative of 'terminal decline', three weeks before the grounding Qantas quietly applied to transfer all European flying (with exception of 2 daily EGLL) to a wholly owned subsidiary. Any guess who?
As a result at execution QF experienced a substantial decline in passenger numbers and thus revenues, this is historic record. The result a hastily convened DXB 'alliance' and Dubai hub. The cost of $100 million borne by shareholders, who also financed the return to Singapore. The hub, now abandoned and the lack of growth in revenues indicative that despite their best effort, they needed to do something else. Their remaining customers had said so since it was announced.

That they are having a go is admirable, however that the aircraft is stretched and any impact of an environmental variable curtails the service reliability is indicative that this is the case.. Perhaps a reason why other airlines are not employing the aircraft on such a 'hail Mary' stage length.

That the aircraft was ordered by Mr Dixon in 2006 is testament to a decade of mismanagement where aircraft operating routes that are beyond their optimum is seen as 'growth'.
Aircraft and route planning is detailed and a necessarily complex process. This aircraft may be many things, but given the impact, environment (whether it be runway limits, temperature, crew duty limits, crosswind limits or fuel) has, it is reasonable to infer it was not designed to do what they are trying to get it to do, It is perhaps a glimpse into QF mindset that aircraft selection and route planning has been neglected for an extended period of time, roughly at least coincident with Little Napoleon's tenure.

There is obviously no one here who understands the payload planning process, the assumptions used and probabilities. :rolleyes:

Furthermore, any pax you suppress are the low (or zero) revenue ones. The staff, the frequent flyer redemptions, the ID90s, the PR handouts, etc.

If low or "zero" revenue pax were not an important part of an airline we would only have 1st and Business seats with maybe just maybe some premium economy seats - NO Economy and fill the rest with freight.
Now since that does not happen and we see the rise of budget carriers - seems low revenue paxs actually make airlines money!

The staff if you read and in particular pilots get upset without confirmed tickets for them and family - any bumping will make them take the better offers.

Frequent Flyer redemption have actually paid more than the fare would have cost in cash - if they are not "Rewarded" with the "Fly Buys" they will jump ship. (Qantas and woolies change made Coles very happy.

ID 90 hurts some employees (that then look at options for better places to work) or some ex staff.

Now bumping a "PR" hand out - I assume you mean a "Public Relations" hand out ticket. Only a fool would do that!

Who said bumping ? You don't offer the freebie reservations on the critical flights in the first place.

Economy class assessed in terms of revenue dollars per cabin square meterage taken comes a lot closer to that in F/C than commonly supposed. I believe Premium Economy can sometimes exceed the others on this basis.

So how much notice do you intend to give the "PR" flight people "advance notice" of departure? if they are not to be on critical flights - we can not bump them! So it is you that need to reduce your initital class that is effected ( you named the groups).

So you agree pissing of staff and some ID90's (often not economy pax anyway) will not be a very smart move for staff retention and moral?

Do I take this to mean you think Qantas ought to become a LCC?

I think you've just got a bone to pick, if you're moaning about bumping a few low yield pax in order to ensure the guys up front who paid $10k a ticket get to fly.

A route is a failure if it can afford to carry 45 freebie or ID90 pax every flight? Give us a break.

chuboy - Qantas passenger service has reduced a lot over the years and infact is a LCC on a number of legs only with the premium price - You know this when "We wish a warm welcome to all our Qantas passengers" is made by cabin crew wearing Jetstar uniforms.

I have no bone to pick, only I think it is arrogant that you and others treat other people in a sub-standard way and think wreaking 45 peoples plans is fine, because someone ticket got paid to a value of $10,000.

Where did I say it was a "Failure"?

I was saying if economy pax are not important (and make no money) do not sell them tickets at all - only sell First, Businesses & freight. Then no low yeilders will get bumped and have their plans changed.

Keep in mind a lot of the low yeild passengers have indirectly paid for those $10,000 tickets and a few helicopter rides and other perks.

(Sigh). Do I really have to come from the other side of the world to teach Yield Management 1.01 ?

Bit of a revelation to hear about the staff morals though. Do tell more :)

Not sure if you've ever been to Perth, but the hot weather hasn't really started yet.
And the window is likely to be about 10 weeks.

Has QF9/10 had to divert yet? There was a lot of noise that it would be diverting regularly before it started.

Really?

High temperature = high SG?

So is it correct to say that the 787 has a load factor of around 20% on the MELB/PER/MELB legs of this flight?

What % would be Business, Premium Economy and Economy?

That is the pertinent question.
What happens when environmental variables limit the service at both ends?

What should happen is exactly the same as if the environmental variable (that should be considered prior to accepting bookings) is only at one end.

And that should be not shaft the cream.

At the very least, you still get a checked bag with your ticket on Qantas. The same can't be said of BA, the US majors, and many more.

I could explain to you why economy class is still important but there are already videos on youtube you could watch if you really cared to learn, it's not like you even have to buy a textbook in this age. Are Qantas expected to cancel the flight or even the route if they can't take everyone who has a ticket every day of the year? Are the high-yielding business class passengers more, less, or equally important to Qantas than Ethel and Barry who bought Economy Super Saver fares and can be rerouted MEL-SIN-LHR instead of MEL-PER-LHR?

Fact is, you may not like to hear it but someone who is willing to drop 10k on a flight to London in Business is more important to a full-service carrier than economy pax who would have flown with Air Asia if only that were an option. I'm not suggesting those who are not wealthy enough to fly business are less equal as people, but Qantas is a business and not the human rights commission and they should be expected to discriminate in favour of individuals who have a bigger impact on their bottom line.

"Fact is, you may not like to hear it but someone who is willing to drop 10k on a flight to London in Business is more important to a full-service carrier than economy pax who would have flown with Air Asia if only that were an option. I'm not suggesting those who are not wealthy enough to fly business are less equal as people, but Qantas is a business"

And when that is an option!

Great plan Qantas and exactly why I search all airlines now - long are the days that I would pay the extra premium to fly with them.

My last flights with them were Brisbane to Sydney and then on to Darwin with my wife in Business class around 3 years ago, since then I can say in flight service from Perth to Brisbane with Virgin was certainly not worse. There was a slight advantage to Qantas in the lounge department at most places but not all.

No need to cancel the flight - divert for fuel, after all in your percentages - it is a very rare occurrence and that the extra cost could be factored in over a year. That gets everyone to destination but maybe a few hours late - not up to a few days.

P.S the next flight from Perth to Singapore is often the next day for many.

United have a similar number of seats held on their B789 services LAX MEL and SFO HKG services.