Looks like all the cadets currently in hibernation at the Link will finally get to go home to mainline. As they make up a good percentage of the total pilot numbers their departure will be felt as a higher than normal attrition rate. Add to that the normal retirements, the lowering of requirements at Emirates, and the fact that they stuffed up the crewing numbers a number of months ago and then failed to hire anyone while they were trying to kickstart Propstar NZ.
What you are left with is a current shortage in the FO ranks, and future shortage in the Captain ranks.
How massive it would be is hard to say, sort of depends on how quickly mainline intend on bringing their children home, and if they are going to allow non-cadets into mainline from the Link.
I also hear that they are having issues finding the 'right stuff' at the interviews, seems GA is spitting out pilots who haven't read any of the IFR section in the AIPs.

I've also heard of applicants who've fronted for the interview with incomplete logbooks!!! Unbelievable

Perth - Hong Kong next!

Lotsa candidates through m148 atm

Direct entry F/O on the 737 to be announced In the next 6 months. 60 positions apparently as the S/O's on The gravy train dont want to take a pay cut. To be taken from current group experienced f/o's . Heard it here first....

There's currently 340-odd S/O's across the 3 fleets. I'd be very surprised if they can't find 1 in 6 of them to take a window seat. They're not all earning substantial overtime on the 744 and 380.

When the training vacancies are released in a few weeks, those with no current promotion-listed Letter of Preference might suddenly come out of the woodwork when the opportunities are staring them in the face.

Not always just the pay/award - a lot of the slots would be based elsewhere. Not everyone lives to pack up the families life and move somewhere so daddy can have a fly. People are settled in after so lobg waiting. Partners jobs, houses, kids in school... for a pay cut?

Not applicable to me but its not always that simple

Lol. On what planet are they going to bypass those guys who actually have a connection to mainline and go down to some random order of group employees they can't afford to lose?

Yes they will bypass all other applicants, they need experienced F/O's as the second officers don't want to leave their gravy train.

Horse ****e AOA.

Don't know where you're getting this nonsense from, maybe wishful thinking.

There is no mechanism within the awards to employ straight off the street into the 737 F/O seat. All employees will be for S/O positions. The F/O 737 positions will be advertised, just like any other vacancy, for all to bid for. As some others have mentioned, people change there bids right up to the hour they close, so no one knows with any certainty how many S/Os will bid for these positions.

It may very well transpire that the F/O awards will go very junior. It's happened in the past on the 737 and the 767 prior to 5:30 MDC. I fully expect this to happen again if the rumoured expansion is any where near correct. This may mean, as it has in the past, that F/O positions are filled from those that have only just joined the company within the last few months. 767 F/O slots were filled from guys who were still doing their initial S/O training on the classic (that took 4-5 months thanks to an FE panel endorsement).

IsDon,

You are mostly correct, however, with respect, if the LOP's in force when they close in a couple of months have insufficient 737 F/O preferences to meet the demand of the training year, then I seriously doubt there is anything in the "awards" (sic) to prevent them offering any applicant a 737 gig.

Even if there were, there's nothing to stop them offering a slot to an applicant 30 seconds after they walk in the door on the first day of their S/O course, which would amount to the same thing except that they couldn't be forced to accept it.

The Company policy of x hours on Company aircraft prior to promotion to F/O is the only impediment I can think of, but I'm pretty sure they could get around that easily.

Given the seniority of recent promotions to the 737, and the proposed number of movements, I would think this is a serious possibility. No-one will know, of course, until all current S/O's (and those approaching age 65) review their LOP's over the next couple of months.

As for "bypassing applicants" (I think that comment was made somewhat in jest), they will employ whatever applicants they choose. You get to do that as an employer (within the bounds of the Discrimination Act). Cadets have no legal privilege to a position over anyone else, but the Company will presumably employ them first unless there is a reason to do otherwise. I would think many cadets would be more than qualified to jump straight to the 737 given the experience they have had over the past several years.

True to a point Fred. Another possibility is a freeze on the 737. If sufficient numbers to replace those wanting to leave can't be found within the existing ranks with the prerequisite number of hours in company aircraft then this is another option available. Not popular, but possible.

Another point you alluded to is also correct. How many permanent F/Os are turning 65 and wish/need to keep flying? They can't be employed as captains, and they have to go somewhere.

Plenty of people with a few thousand hours on qantas owned/leased jets floating around.

:ok:

True. Something I hadn't thought of.

Cross that bridge when we come to it I guess.

And Turboprops!!!!!!

Yep no bypass provisions or anything like that to prevent being held on the 737. I have almost been caught myself but got off by the skin on my teeth

The qantas group owns/ leases 207s?

Only C209s from memory keg :)

If Qantas wanted to be strategic with their hiring all they need to do is take a bunch off their competitors turboprop fleet which at the moment have no training approvals what so ever! The fleet would come to a grinding halt........

I always wondered why the big players never did that.
In the past Virgin have recruited from the Link but only in dribs and drabs, taking pilots from elsewhere at the same time, if they had wanted to be brutal in their fight against the competition they could have taken a dozen or so pilots directly from one base and fleet in QLink and done serious damage.
Just imagine if Qantas took 6+ Captains from one fleet and one base in any regional airline and you would see cancellations and panic for months.

Maybe they try to be nice in the hopes that it doesn't then happen to them?