ZFlyer,

I don't know enough about the nuts and bolts of visa issues to assert or dispute how they're handled. But doesn't the decision to renew any visa rest with the federal government in addition to an employer (both have to agree) ? Is it possible the government could refuse to renew even if an employer wanted to ?

The E3 Visa is a reciprocal visa agreement between the Australian & United States governments (called the Skilled Work Visa in Australia).For E3’s to be considered at risk, it would require either government to walk back their commitment. There is the very real possibility of this happening, but I believe the political risk/fallout of alienating a close ally would make such a move inconceivable.

“IF” it did happen, I doubt our visas would be ripped up and we’d be deported. More likely, E3 visas would not be renewed upon expiry meaning you’d have time to look for a new job.

In regards to termination by the employer, in short: they can, but they can’t. We’re employed under the same contract as local employees and have the same benefits and protections. If the company systematically started refusing to renew E3 visas, it wouldn’t happen without a fight.

Yes, there is risk to accepting a job that requires a visa. But working in aviation is inherent with risk. I genuinely believe that my job is more secure than any job being offered by any of the Australian carriers.

Feel free to reach out if you have any questions.

In theory, yes. Practically, no.

If an employer chose to not renew it’d have to be for reason of being fired in the same way as any other employee so they cannot just choose to not renew because it suits them. If it was for furloughs for example everyone below you on the list would need to be furloughed first.

Like most visas you need to do something incredibly stupid/illegal to have it cancelled is how it was explained to me by a lawyer when I was looking into it.

And then there is the high probability of a change of leadership in the US of A at the end of the year (well Jan ‘25). A former president known for somewhat radical actions and decrees.

I'm not sure if the skilled work visa is purely reciprocal as other countries are allowed to apply for it. You don't have to be American for one, but you have to be Australian for an E3. IMO to me it's pretty bonkers that only by virtue of our citizenship we have the opportunity to come over and actually get somewhere in this otherwise crazy competitive industry. Many have found their own way into legacies and long term careers at this point which would have been impossible without the initial visa. Not even Canadians can get here as easily as Australians can. The existence of this visa is so stupidly lucky for us. It's also super small in comparison. I'm not sure if its even a blip on the radar of the people that make immigration decisions, hopefully we can keep it that way.

Even better, at a few airlines the E3 represents a critical mass, which has some pretty significant impacts on a seniority list if all were to have to leave at once.

Bit of doom and gloom from a few months back from locals here. Just a few snippets of where the hiring wave may be. The US majors hired 1600 pilots last month! There’s a critical shortage of simulator capacity and notably, this affecting Delta. National offering 300% OT in the next few weeks ( invest wisely lads ), Kalitta needs 400 to 500 pilots and Atlas humming along though appreciate any info’ for escaping ozmates. I even heard FedEx looking at taking pilots again come Fall. The pilot market in the USA could comfortably absorb a failed regional carrier ( rumours )

Not sure where you got your info but the main problem affecting hiring, is the lack of aircraft deliveries. Boeing is massively behind. UAL has suspended hiring at the moment and it’s doubtful FedEx will be hiring anyone this year. They are laying off management pilots including instructors.

From an ALPA zoom meeting. UA wasn’t mentioned. 1600 hired last month at the majors ( excluding UA if you’re correct ). Fedex came up specifically and that’s what was said - they may look at hiring in the Fall. No concerns whatsoever expressed about the hiring wave ( tsunami ) breaking anytime soon in the USA.

So really? There was zero intake at UA last month? I’ll throw that back at the ALPA guys.

Any news from Atlas?

UA is still hiring, old mate is spreading false information. They stopped classes for May and June and pushed those with start dates to July and onwards. Expecting double the amount of new joiners in July as well. Interviews are still happening. They can’t get enough aircraft and summer is a super busy time so not surprised they paused. They do the same over Christmas/New Years.

”Old mate” as you put it works at the training center in Denver and was out having a few beers last week with 5 of the hiring captains, so that’s where my info came from.

If you worked at UA, you’d know we’re way behind on aircraft deliveries and hiring is always for the next 6-12 months.

Also, I didn’t say we hadn’t hired this month, I said we had suspended hiring but can’t remember when it was due to take effect. The interview groups are definitely smaller and less frequent.

A good friend of mine is also in the Denver training center and told me the same thing. According to him the issue is the planes aren’t coming fast enough, not a lack of will on UA’s part. Exactly as you are saying

We were supposed to hit a new aircraft every 3 days for about 24 months. By the end of this year, we'll be short about 20 airframes for the year on what was planned. The hiring plan has been scaled back at the moment, to the point that we now have a surplus of Instructors sitting around not doing much.

None of this should surprise the masses; it was in the news about 2 weeks ago when the announcement regarding the hiring forecast was revised and reduced.

So hardly gloomy? The USA is still experiencing an unabated pilot hiring tsunami!

I jump seated with UA yesterday and I was sure to remind the crew, that many Australians wish them well in their massive expansion across the Pacific. Since our own airlines, notably Qantas, have failed miserably in post-COVID recovery.

I read today that United is now under close FAA scrutiny. They cannot do in-house seat change checkrides, promote trainers or checkers without FAA oversight. (All because of dud management ruining the safety culture).

I imagine that will have flow-on effects.

Got a post on LinkedIn this morning that FedEx has commenced mass layoffs……

Yeah nope. Everyone slowing down or stopping at least over summer. United has had some kind of incident every day recently and now the FAA are even slowing down their roll (expansion plans). I think hiring will be levelling off til we see who Southwest buys and if the HAL/Alaska goes through, which may lead to some more consolidation and possibly some regional acquisitions.