will MH survive ?
 

Question has to be asked.


Some of the public will undoubtably avoid booking MH. It would only take a few % points for them to spiral into massive debt.


Think they are like QF International already, losing millions of dollars everyday.

They are already in debt...But no, this nor MH370 will help their cause :sad:

Think Swissair, or PanAm or even BCPA going further back into history. Unfortunately the litigation will be too much.
Unlikely to make it, going forward.

But the question is, considering this is a govt. owned airline, would the airline desolve and reopen again the next day as a new airline?

The question some will be asking is why the flight was over the area in the first place. Sure the airspace was open, but most other airlines were avoiding that area regardless. This might well be the straw which broke the camel's back.

Are you sure about this statement? I flew this same route twice in the past 10 days (not on MAS)

No! Not in its current form anyway.
Lockerbie was not really Pan am fault but was the last straw in it collapse.

I read a report two singapore airlines aircraft over ukraine enroute to europe at the same time.

Cant see the malaysian govt letting it fail completely, but it will probably have to be reborn,rebranded with possibly a new name/livery and reduced network?

Will be interesting how the insurance holds up. If they were flying in a active war zone the insurers may not be willing to cough up.

As per Crikey and the AFF forum which has a FlightRadar24 screenshot about that time, two SQ aircraft (inc an A380) and an AI aircraft were quite near to the MH forum.

All were presumably above the 32k NOTAM zone.

I think most will see MH as being very unlucky here, albeit bookings will undoubtedly suffer.

Note that various Govt entities own 70+% of MH, and I believe a fair chunk of MAHB (the owner of pretty much all the airports in the country). MH disappearing would be very detrimental to stopover tourism as well.

So I can't see MH disappearing, the Govt would have too much to lose.

Singapore & Malaysian are only two of how many airlines that could use this route?

Who then? Singapore? If another that only makes three.

From what I have read, most airlines were avoiding the area.

Most management these days are really good at saying "How much extra will it cost over time to fly around? Hang on, someone official is saying it is Ok to fly over, so that is what we will do & save the cash" I'm just surprised more weren't flying over the area.

Although it appears that several other airliners were on the same routing (BBC WS a few minutes ago) the insurers will be looking for reasons not to pay out on the hull loss. With the compensation they will have to pay, loss of future confidence and revenue, MH is not likely to survive in its current form. It will probably remain as a domestic and regional carrier but it's hard to imagine it remaining a serious contender on international routes after this, given the amount of competition on the routes it serves.
Its shares have lost 40% in the last few months and it was losing USD1.5 million a day, and that was before yesterday's event.

Who else was flying that route?
 

While I think the question about whether is was prudent to fly that route is a good question. And, I think the airline industry needs to better understand the distinction between who 'legally' controls airspace vs who 'actually' controls airspace. (We have been living with this friction in Cyprus for decades!!) I would like to point out that numerous airlines were using that route, Which punctures, to some degree, the notion that MH was negligent for being there.

Etihad, Emirates, KLM, Singapore and Malaysian - to name a few were using that airway. Eurocontrol was endorsing flights along that route (above FL320).

Therefore - it is easy to say with hindsight that it was a regrettable decision. But it was not an isolated or negligent decision.

OneWorld
 

Cursed World MH: Will they be asked to leave OneWorld?
Collateral damage to the other members can't be ignored.
MH is a PR disaster.

I remember an Impulse Airlines baggage handler asking after the planes hit if the world trade centre would survive .........

Winnerhofer.

I suppose it implies when you purchase a ticket on a code share flight. The same safety & or standards aren't necessarily applied.

Question: What makes it acceptable for one carrier to operate on a particular route when another in the same alliance determines it an unacceptable risk.

Answer: Risk versus financial reward

Back to the original question. Malaysian will survive because it is important to Malaysia Inc. The government will not let it fail...

Agreed with that point wholeheartedly.
Also, you can't compare Malaysian Airlines run of unfortunate luck with Pan Am for this reason - The tolerance and acceptance level for hull losses in Asia is higher than in Western countries. Even ICAO did some stats on that very topic some years ago. From memory, as an example, ICAO found that USA citizens accepted around 1.4 losses per year as 'acceptable'. People's confidence in air travel didn't change much. Anything more than that and the citizens were jumping up and down! Australia's tolerance is even lower, meaning an accident say like with Lockhart River, a Metro with around 15 pax or something equivalent was about as high as people would accept. Then you had statistics for Asia where the tolerance was much higher. Indonesia was around 2.5 complete hull losses per year, and the punters weren't overly concerned. It was an interesting research paper, I might be able to rustle it up from somewhere. And keep in mind these stats are from memory and some time ago, so they may be a little inaccurate, but Asia certainly had a greater acceptance of airline crashes than western countries. I guess my point is that I think, or at least hope that MH survives. It would appear that at this point in time the hull losses of two 777's is a really really bad run of luck. There were other carriers operating along the same route in that area of airspace who also believed that 32 000 feet was indeed safe.

Talking about failures, what were the Captains plans if an emergency descent or drift down were required in that particular airspace?

Totally unacceptable risk in my opinion.

Hoss,
It's got nothing to do with the Captains plans!
What was the Company's plan if an emergency descent or drift down was required!

Over and above hull, pax liabilities and third party liabilities insurance airlines carry a 'War' policy, the underwriters will probably have issued a warning regarding the Ukraine and may have increased the premium for such flights, sometimes calculated on a fixed US$ amount per flight. I suspect all war cover has been withdrawn indefinitely for this routing now.


Airlines carry out their own risk management and some airlines are more vulnerable in certain areas and less in other areas and other airlines will be vulnerable or otherwise in exactly the opposite areas. Route selection will take this into account. Such a policy doesn't leave any room for accidental shooting down though, it is based on a deliberate threat.

Captain being the 'final hole' in the cheese. WTF were dispatch/flight planning thinking and the pricks who NOTAMed the airspace or Eurocontrol........the list goes on.

If nothing else, the whole event/s serves to highlight how fortunate we are as a whole in the Australian aviation industry.

That's because it's a sheltered workshop! Aussie airlines rarely fly anywhere extremely challenging in comparison to truly global airlines.

....or our culture that has lead to our envious safety record.

Let's face it, flying straight and level above a war zone isn't 'challenging', it's dumb.

To answer the original post, no I don't think MH will survive but will the next airline be any different. I guess we'll know the answer in a few years.

with that logic Ansett would still be around & govt will bail out Qantas, which is highly unlikely.

No I don't think it will survive in it's present form.It will need to be rebranded and renamed.But will probably be still owned by the government.

I do not think MH will survive in its present form. The same goes for the government there too.

I'm not sure either the press release from MAS claiming 'there was no reason to plan around it', or those people claiming 'SIA and AI went through it too' are standing on very solid ground tbh.

Firstly, an aeroplane got shot down, so patently there WAS a reason to plan around it.

Secondly, if SIA and AI both also decide to play Russian Roulette and manage to survive, is this proof itself that the game is safe practice?

They went the most direct route to make more money. How did that work out for them? The company may not deserve to go under, but people working for it do.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Everyone en route from Europe to Asia flies across Pakistan and Afghanistan, until yesterday I would have said that was the most likely place to get hit by a stray SAM, not Russia / Ukraine at all.

Also, airlines do not generally have the in house capability to assess military threat levels, they rely on the assessment of national intelligence agencies for that, those guys are supposed to determine the appropriate threat level and issue NOTAMs and advice to the airlines / ICAO as appropriate?

Just a minor thought; For an area to be a 'War zone' would there not have to a formal declaration of war from one of the parties/countries concerned?:confused:

I really have no idea; just asking.

Will MH survive?
 

Asian aversion to "Loss of Face" will ensure MH survives. Just like the former KAL, now Korean, has.

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_0...allation-1561/

url]http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/nato-general-warned-of-russian-anti-aircraft-training-for-separatists/blogEntry?id=24607368[/url]

[QUOTE]Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Everyone en route from Europe to Asia flies across Pakistan and Afghanistan, until yesterday I would have said that was the most likely place to get hit by a stray SAM, not Russia / Ukraine at all.

[QUOTE]

except it isn't hindsight.
There were media reports 3 weeks ago the separatists had some of these buks. The whole joint should have been shut down then. None of the baddies in Pakistan or Afghanistan have access to this sort of stuff.

Fly to Europe via USA or Canada....

Flights in last 7 days.

http://www.thepilotsblog.com/Pilots%...verflights.JPG

Is it confirmed that a NOTAM was in force advising of possible weapons release in the area? I have seen one such NOTAM in the press advising to cruise above F320 but the press is so full of crap I dont know what is confirmed yet? Was this NOTAM issued following the accident?

Nice diagram showing the 'usual suspects' who regularly grace the front covers of crash comics.

Thanks Plazbot, for a Layman's guide of airlines whose acceptance of risk is more weighted to reward. I assume UAL and FedEx were freighters.

I suppose it's possible that some planning departments did not do a review of the safety case involved in flying through this area and relyed solely on the Notams. This would be very un imaginative considering even I knew from my newspaper that shooting down aircraft was an ongoing situation in the Crimea.

For a local perspective, routes and altitudes flown during Ash Cloud Advisorys can be measurably different depending on the airlines risk matrix.

Not that it has any bearing on this subject but UAL does not operate any freighters.

I did wonder at UAL inclusion in the list, and therefore the veracity of the list in light of reports that US aircraft were not traversing the area.