Will Qantas Mainline ever hire another pilot on a permanent contract?
 

Seeing as its now been over four years I believe since Qantas Mainline hired a pilot on a permanent contract I was wondering if it will ever happen again? The amount of people on LOP seems to be substantial and with the boss man blaming everything from "Unions" to "Nasty not play fair Virgin" for the groups problems it seems that there will be a slow but inevitable demise in store.

Anyone with a crystal ball want to comment?

I thought the way it is going, the question should be, will there be a mainline?

There has been and will continue to be a lot of pain for a few years, but I'd guess recruitment will start again in the second half of 2016.

My prediction is that the company will get fleet pay for new hire S/Os, maybe even existing S/Os. I'd like to see fleet pay for all ranks.

My bet is 2016 too.

B-Scale?
 

I've heard QF has something like 300 pilots over 58 & 500 over 55. They can't all stay 'til 70 years old!

As stated on other threads it serves QF's agenda to be able to characterise its pilots as:
- inefficient (even though company actions have caused most of the inefficiencies), and
- overpaid, (even though most S/Os would be F/Os in any other company flying around in crews of two-captains/two-F/Os, and most pilots don't fly the A380).
QF has some quite stark shortages already in some ranks & categories of pilots but is apparently doing its darnedest not to hire until the crisis is bad enough in the community/pilot psyche.

I think 'the plan' is to create the case for a B-scale which will, at some point, see new pilots start on conditions comparable to the competitors.

The irony may be that, given the age profile of the existing QF pilots and the lower cost base a B-scale would provide for QF's 're-expansion', future hirees may get better progression through QF than other companies with similarly low pay rates and younger pilots.

So, if the pay were to be similar anyway, QF may be the place to join if/when hiring begins again.

Just thinking out loud...:O

So sell out next generation to keep your job ? Is that what your saying ?

It means you either sell out or they will set up an alternative flying arrangement where staff from company B fly the routes at Jetstar rates. If AJ mentioned $2billion in savings over the next few years, it's not going to come by keeping the status quo anything.

In some respects you could ask if Virgin will hire again in the next 5 yrs!?

Let's hope both Qantas and Virgin do!

The answer to the original question is 'yes'. The timeframe is 2016/17... maybe a bit earlier. The last intakes were in Jan and Feb of '09 I think. That's probably the biggest gap in recruiting we've ever had.

The question as to what pay scale they will be on is an interesting one.

Personally? Fleet pay. It's a no brainer. It should have been in when I joined direct to the 744 in '95 and I've advocated for it since. We had the opportunity to pursue it when we did EBA7 rollover but lack of leadership meant that we didn't do it.

Things have to change that's for sure. Not just for S/Os but all of us. There are some things that are simply unsustainable. What change and how to implement it will be the truly difficult part.

I can't see hiring on the current award. It is unsustainable. I see some Qantas Tech Crew Australia thing happening.

The predictions on recruiting have been "two years away" for the last four or five years. Like fusion power, it's a chimera which never appears to get any closer to reality.

Personally, I think it's highly unlikely. I very much doubt the 787 will ever arrive. Management will decide those options are worth more being sold than ever being exercised and turned into real aeroplanes and flying real passengers.

Aircraft retirements and route cutting will accelerate if anything and the surplus will grow.

You heard wrong, maybe half that.

I agree!

Perhaps, but it came from someone in that group who's also in a 'fleet focus' group.; it seems logical that they would have some idea.

If that's directed at me, then no; you're doing that! I explained what I believe 'the plan' is. If it plays out like I've described:
- no one will be hired on the 'old' QF contract, (the benevolent leaders have already said as much re 787. Do you think they're bluffing?) or
- like the cabin crew there will be 'an offer too good to refuse' for future QF aspirants and the rest will be history.

The justifications have all even heard before:
- at least it's jobs for Aussies,
- it will be their choice to take the job or not,
- the conditions are still better than a lot of other options,
- this is a great opportunity to get into the industry!
- finally some progression for mainline!
- it didn't kill Cathay did it?

I'm not sure any of us can stop this train, but I'd like to be wrong.:sad:

The B scale already exists and is called Qantaslink. The link is the only part of the mainline group that is expanding. As part of the new 2b restructure qantaslink will be the new entry portal and I can see qantaslink becoming the new qantas domestic product. Qantas mainline will become the international arm only. Jetstar will do the rest.

who will buy QF tickets 11 months in advance anymore
 

traditionally (before GFC) the cheapest international tickets were ALWAYS available as soon as loaded in CRS's, which with most legacy airlines meant around 50 weeks out.

Worked in travel until a few years ago & would get the regulars, those who would go overseas to Europe or USA every Xmas holidays, call as soon as they got back in late Jan to book the following Dec.

But now, no one will book QF & this will also hurt other airlines, so cash flow will dry up, at least as far as QF international is concerned.

Many members of the public are already resigned to the "fact" that QF is stuffed.

The more QF management & the media talk about it, the worse it will get.

Does this mean that QF will offer incredible earlybird deals ?

Think QF is now stuck between a rock & a hard place.

Perhaps they could introduce a Pay to Fly scheme and offer 500 hrs B737 for $30 000. An upgrade program for experienced F/Os wanting to move into the left seat and willing to pay for the privilege could also bring in some extra cash.

Wrong?
 

Not according to the CP International's memo of 7 Nov.

He wrote that the current surplus is 216 and the surplus for the next 8 months would increase 50-60. So, that's about 276. I guess my 300 was wrong but a lot closer than your 'half that'.

I believe those numbers are 'best case' and that they will increase from there.

Hiring in two years? Chimera, indeed.

Both right?
 

Yeah but I think we've got a couple of hundred on LWOP so perhaps the 'half that' is correct in terms of physical bodies in Qantas?

I think you'll find the quoted surplus is excluding those on LWOP, so as they start to return and more aircraft are retired in 2014/15, the situation is going to get fairly ugly.
There will be no recruitment until a change in QF's fleet plan - i.e. more aircraft are ordered.

Regarding Fleet Pay for new S/Os; if the long haul fleet consists entirely of a dozen A380s (as per the last official QF fleet plan published) then S/Os will be on fleet pay by default!