Qantas AIPA FWA Ruling Thurs 17th Jan
 

Can't say I'm excited. Good luck to all involved.

It does explain why the 'revised flying program' due out in mid December hasn't yet been promulgated or filtered down just yet. Waiting to see what FWA has done.

Invest in Ansell shares!

My fearless predictions:

1. Term will be for the next three years until end of 2015. We may see end of 2014 but i doubt it.
2. QF will get the CAO48 exemption or at least a version of it. There may be some 'humanising' rules in it that will prevent SYD-PER-SYD back of the clock (or QF's risk assessment will prevent that anyway) but the general principle applies.
3. AIPA will get probably get back pay to 1 July 2011. 3+3+3+3+3 will be my bet.
4. No significant changes beyond that due to complexity of award. Rest will be playing at the edges. Swings and roundabouts for both sides.

Win for both sides, loss for both or a victory for one side or the other?

Forgetting the fact that the Qantas brand is the big loser of the grounding and a proper negotiation would have probably meant more of a victory for both sides.

Shared blank lines perhaps?

And undoubtedly the Company will have been "given the right to manage"! Can't wait to see Wirthless front and centre some time tomorrow!

Hope you are right about the back pay Keg, there's a few less palatable possibilities in that area....

Oh yes. Forgot about the SBL. I've got no doubt they'll be in given that both sides indicated 'no objection' to that one. Not a big deal to my thinking but then I've been advocating those since I first joined Qrewroom in the late '90s.

It'll be interesting to see what credence FWA give to the 'compromise' solutions put forward by AIPA on a number of occasions (and comprehensively rejected by Qantas each time). If FWA see that AIPA made a lot of effort to reach a compromise deal and QF just stonewalled then maybe AIPA may get a few unexpected victories. Or alternatively they may simply not give a stuff and go with QF's 'commercial imperative'.

I guess we'll know shortly after 1630hrs tomorrow.

My concern with the compromise position is that it then became the AIPA Position in the eyes of FWA, thereby bringing the determined position closer to that put forward by QF.

I hope you are correct, Keg, re AIPA bring handed a few victories for being the 'good guys' wrt compromise.

I cant really see any big surprises in the FWA judgement, a few exemptions to CAO48 but everyone else has them, dont worry, be happy. :oh:

SBL, yes about time.

CAO48 variations, 3 crew DBX and LAX will make almost 50% of 380/744
s/o's redundant.........I hope this does not happen.

Qantas has been carrying a surplus of several hundred pilots for a couple of years now and during that time has been managing it by burning annual leave and long service leave. One can only speculate as to what their next step is. Like the pilots, I suspect management is waiting to see where the lines are drawn for the next couple of years and then (unlike the pilots) will deploy the appropriate pre-prepared strategy. It won't carry the surplus forever.

Won't happen, the variation doesn't provide that much scope. Emirates operate two Capt, two F/o's to Australia from Dxb and back under the equivalent of the JAA regs FTLs which are less restrictive than the CAO48 variation.
Reduction in s/o numbers will occur mainly by the aircraft operating dxb-Lhr-dxb two man crew, 30 in 7 won't be a problem until the dxb-syd(mel) sector home but that will have two s/o's so no problems.

With the amount of retirements forecast over the next 10 years in both SH and LH I think management will continue to manage surpluses with lwop instead of redundancies. :ok:

Disclaimer though is Joyce is unpredictable. :ugh:

"Unpredictable" is a very generous descriptor in my opinion (I can think of others), but I agree with your views on the SYD-DXB crewing requirements.

Looking at distance calculators online, the distance SYD-DXB is almost identical to the distance LAX-SYD, so I don't think even CAO48E could reduce the crew complement to less than four pilots.

Stalin, afaik, the 30/7 reprieve is only available if it's all heavy crewed. Spreading it over 8 day's may work tho

Sorry Keg - but I think you've been sniffing fumes. FWA does not act fairly for employees.

I really do hope people dont lose their jobs. But... you have to look to what happened to engineering just after our eba was sorted, to get a pointer as to what is going to happen to you.

Probably the one major difference from the pilots situation and the engineers is the company keeps on harping on about less maintenance for these pretty new planes, hence less jobs. However, these planes still require two guys up the front no matter how advanced the planes are.

FWA Decision - all 125 pages!

No wage increase for all of 2011 ??

Shared Blank Lines?