PPRuNe Forums - 787-900 to Jetstar?

It is my belief that Jetstar will not get the initial 787's, they will go to mainline to replace the 767's.

Several reasons.

1. Excessive training cost
Training Jetstar Pilots/Engineering/Cabin/ground staff of every sort from Airbus to Boeing - months of training.
returning A330's to mainline to replace 767 pilots - months of training as opposed to around 2 weeks training from 767/738.

2. Hand in hand with above, A330's taken offline for months to "clean up" and refresh to return from JetStar not to mention paint at cost of? millions? (including cost of downtime)

3. Return on investment/capital.
The costs of just the 2 points obove would take several years to break even with the "not so huge" savings from the 787 over the current A330's.
"The B787 has a 10% operating cost reduction compared to the B767, and a smaller reduction compared to the A330." - Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation

Undisputed the biggest profitability of the entire QANTAS group is mainline domestic operations, currently serviced by 734's/738's/767's/A330's and the occasional 744. I am not sure on exact number, but something like 30% of domestic operations served by 767's that are a good work horse but old.

4. Virgin going full service
QANTAS holds a VERY hard 65% "line in the sand" for its domestic market, and gives it's low yield/unprofitable routes to Jetstar. Virgin is making large inroads into the high yield business and premium travel market, and they must stop it. QANTAS management has always been reactive in so far as not doing something unless forced, and the motto is generally "if they put on 2 aicraft, we put on 3". For example Virgin has it's 330's going to Perth, so they put on a 744 at a huge fuel penalty to "trump" the competition. They have several A330's available to equal them but instead they use the 744. (40Tonnes burn for 400pax over 25Tonnes for 350?)-again I don't know exact figures but that's close I believe?
The 787 is the perfect "trump card" for passenger retention and attracting new customers as the worlds most premium aircraft, the premium market will have no problem paying for this (just as the fares on A380 are more expensive than the 744 and yet are always booked over capacity). Add to this a 15-19% fuel saving over the 767 and you truly do have a "Dreamliner" that carries 260pax and burns 20Tonnes on that same service.

By end of 2013, most if not all mainline 734's are retired, 787's arriving replacing 767's suddenly the mailine domestic fleet is very very attractive and new. 738's/787's and occasional A330's for additional capacity. - A far cry from current fleet (old 734's and 767's and 744's)

From a press article- Qantas International’s future growth depends on the B787, but Mr Joyce this month was reserved about the international division’s downfall due to B787 delays. “I don’t think the fleet on its own will be the silver bullet to turn Qantas International around,” he said. “It certainly would have made a difference in the high fuel environment because what would have happened if B787s were in the fleet today is we would have retired the B767s, particularly the Rolls-Royce B767 fleet.” - Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation

5. QANTAS's FWA (Fair Work Australia) submission details 787 along side of 767, with the same payscale and catergory (below current 744/330 rates). I believe that a new "streamlined/productive" award will be introduced to cover the 787 both in domestic and International ops, in 10 years time you have A380's/787-9's/787-8's/738's - with only 16 A380's on the old "long haul award" and the rest on much more efficient flexible arrangements. Even if it on the "long haul award" at 767 rates it is still a huge saving over current rates on 744/330. Maybe 15% in crewing costs and MASSIVE savings on fuel.

I do believe that Jetstar (and all airlines) will have to end up with super efficient aircraft to stay competitive, but currently are facing competition that have the same equipment as current in the immediate future, and the 787 will do little to attract customers to what is an absolutely price driven market. The fuel savings alone will not accomplish enough to warrant the $180M price tag.

Several indicators are pointing to this scenerio, although not "conclusive".

The planned A330 to replace the 767's doesn't work. The A330 cannot do the 45minute turn arounds due to hot brakes,unloading and loading/cleaning for a start. They cannot park them on "the alley" in Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane as the LENGTH is too much, it's not a wingspan issue. (the 787-8 is almost identical length to the 767-300) The wingspan is same as A330, but extending the Aerobridges and "sliding" bays is easy. Apart from that, having A330's operating under the long haul award on domestic is very limiting and that's the last thing they want.

Several QANTAS mainline management pilots from 737 and even A330 along with company executives have flown the actual 787 between Sydney and Melbourne, and even back to Seattle. If "the plan" is to not get them in mainline until 2016, whats the rush?

The "Investor Strategy Day"
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2011121...jzlv0gx8wc.pdf
in December made several comparrisons in unit cost and fuel consumption between the 787 and the 763 - which is not supposed to be in "the plan"

It has been stated several times that the QANTAS mainline domestic configuration is the same as the Jetstar International configuration. Then why then does QANTAS configuration (260'odd in 2 class) differ from Jetstar's quoted 335 pax for the 787-8. (I believe ANA's is 252 or something) Recently Jetstar have been quoting "about 300" in the press. Remember its the same length as the 767-300 which carries 250 or so.

There are many other small things that point to this outcome, but many will say they are irrelevant so I will not throw them out there. I will leave it to yourselves to draw your own picture.